Ferringo 12-29-09
2.5-Unit Play. Take #543 Missouri State (-3) over Evansville (8 p.m.)
Evansville may be the youngest team in the Missouri Valley this year and their key pieces are all freshmen or sophomores. Missouri State has been a real nice surprise here this year and they have already gone on the road and picked up some true road victories. They nearly nabbed another one their last time out in an OT loss at improving Arkansas. The only teams Evansville has beaten have been rated No. 258 or higher (and that No. 258 team was in OT) and five of their wins were by teams rated 306 or worse. They aren’t pathetic. They played some teams kind of tough. But they aren’t big, they don’t force turnovers, they foul a lot, and they aren’t a great shooting team. I will go with the bigger, more experienced, more proven commodity here. I think it’s going to be a long year for the Purple Aces.
2-Unit Play. Take #525 Rhode Island (-3.5) over Drexel (7 p.m.)
Drexel is just a terrible offensive team. They have about zero skill at that end. They just want to pound people and make games a grinder. That makes them a good home dog, but they need to be catching points. To cover here they basically have to beat Rhode island. Drexel has one fluke win over a team ranked in the Top 150 (Northeastern) and they had to come back for that. Other than that they are 0-6 against Top 150 teams. I don’t think that they win here, so I’m going with the Rams. Rhode Island won at Davidson and won at Boston College, two teams better than Drexel. They also beat Northeastern and have nice wins over Providence and Fairfield as well. Rhode Island is much bigger and more athletic, so I don’t think that they are going to get pushed around by the Dragons on either end.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #586 Ohio (-16.5) over Elon (7 p.m.)
Elon hasn’t played in nearly two weeks and they weren’t playing that well to begin with. Hey, they played N.C. State tough on the road in their last game (Dec. 17). Well, N.C. State sucks so that doesn’t impress me. This same Elon team lost by 40 at Wake Forest, by 30 at UN-Wilmington, by 24 at Hofstra, and even by 23 at Coastal Carolina. Yeah, they suck. Ohio is one of the toughest places in the mid-major world to go in and get a win. I like the Bobcats big.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #581 Northeastern (-5) over Santa Clara (9 p.m.)
I’m going back to Northeastern. I still hold firm that this team is much better than its record. And by staying out on the West Coast they have had plenty of time to really focus on what they are doing and what has been going wrong in their season. Santa Clara has a better record and is playing at home, yet they are significantly dogged to a 3-7 team. What does that tell you? Since leading scorer Kevin Foster went down this team has been scrambling. They barely beat a pair of D-II teams, they got blitzed by Rice and they lost to San Jose State. Neither team is good offensively. But I simply refuse to believe that Northeastern is as bad as their record suggests and I think that they can pull their heads out of their asses in this game here and get us a win.
1-Unit Play. Take #554 Minnesota (-13) over Penn State (9 p.m.)
Minnesota has played a bunch of joke teams leading up to this game. But I have to say, they have dominated each and every one of them and Tubby Smith has shown that he doesn’t mind running up the score. Penn State has one player: Talor Battle. The Gophers know this. They have seen Battle. They are ready for what he brings to the table. And they are going to throw the kitchen sink at him knowing that he’s the only player that can beat them. It seems too easy to take the points here with Penn State, a team that has had some close losses and is about four possessions away from being a one-loss team. But I think that this line is this high for a reason.
1-Unit Play. Take #521 Hofstra (-1.5) over Florida Atlantic (7 p.m.)
Pretty straightforward here: Florida Atlantic was a team that I was set to fade this year and Hofstra was a team that I wanted to play on. The CAA is a significantly better conference than the Sun Belt, so we have relative strength working in our favor. And since neither of these teams has anything but some decent losses to hang their hats on I’ll have to trust my preseason read and look at the value of the better team from the better conference.
1-Unit Play. Take #532 Oklahoma State (-12) over Pacific (8 p.m.)
Pacific is a good regional team. What I mean by that is that they can play regional teams tough as an underdog, at home, or in conference play. But when they step out of their bubble out West and take on a Big Boy team they’re going to find out that they are not up to snuff. I really like this Oklahoma State team, especially at home. And they have shown a penchant for beating really weaker teams by a significant amount of points. Pacific lost by 25 points to Cal at home and by 15 points on the road at St. Mary’s. That’s the type of performance I’m looking for here. I actually like this play for a bit more. So if you're not going to play all of the picks, here is a game to bump up to 1.5 Units and let ride.
1-Unit Play. Take #565 Eastern Kentucky (+1.5) over Morgan State (6 p.m.)
Whole lotta love for Morgan State here despite the fact that this is a neutral court game. I think that Eastern Kentucky is kind of lying in the OVC weeds and that they are better than people think.
1-Unit Play. Take #561 Buffalo (-6.5) over Jacksonville (6 p.m.)
Just thinking that if Buffalo can go on the road and beat UW-Green Bay and go on the road and beat Niagara that they can man up and beat Jacksonville on a semi-neutral court. The Bulls are a sneaky-good team and they should be able to go in and handle a team that has just been getting rocked - I mean rocked - by teams like East Tennessee State, Campbell, and Georgia State (average loss: 16 points). Their one win? At Bethune-Cookman. I think the Bulls get the cash.
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 138.5 Marquette at West Virginia (7 p.m.)
Setting up to chase on a Marquette 'under'. I don't think that there is any way that their last game against Seton Hall should have gone 'over' the total so I'm going right back against the WVU offense and looking for them to put the clamps down tonight on defense. Marquette is not a team that scores a lot itself and neither team has any outstanding guards (I consider Butler a forward for WVU). No good guards and lots of athletes means, to me, a more frantic and less controlled game.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #516 LaSalle (-1) over Cornell (4 p.m.)
This is a revenge game for the Explorers. They were up 14 at Cornell last year and Cornell came back to win by 9. This LaSalle team is a bit banged up. They haven’t performed up to expectations. But with this game at home, and it really being a MUST game for them, I think that they find a way to get the win. They are bigger and more athletic, similar to the Seton Hall team that beat them. Cornell is playing yet another away game and they have been great on the road. They are a very, very good team. But I think that desperation takes over.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #590 Mississippi (-22.5) over Jacksonville State (8 p.m.)
Right now the top teams in college basketball are just hammering teams and covering these fat numbers. Ole Miss has to be steaming a bit from that West Virginia loss. And was they build up to the start of conference play I would think that they would be starting to tighten up a bit. Jacksonville State is one of the worst defensive teams in the country and don’t have the athletes to keep up. Ole Miss keeps burying shots and this one becomes a rout.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #555 Syracuse (-3) over Seton Hall (9 p.m.)
Have to bite. The oddsmakers are off on these Seton Hall numbers. I knew that they were off on the West Virginia number but took Seton Hall because I like them as a Big East sleeper. I should probably continue a small chase on them and I would have if the number was 6.0. But 3.0 is a joke. Syracuse has just destroyed much better teams than Seton Hall this year – on the road and on neutral courts. Seton Hall has beaten exactly no one. No one. They have proven nothing. So while this may be an obvious trap that we’re walking into I think it’s worth a small dabble, simply because I’d be kicking myself when Syracuse comes out and wins by 15. Once again, the game is all about Jeremy Hazell. If the notorious gunner is off then this one will get ugly. If he is on then Seton Hall could, in theory, win this game. He was 4-for-19 from deep when we bet on him. Here’s to hoping that he’s not 12-for-19 from deep when we’re against him.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #584 Wofford (-1.5) over Kent State (11 p.m.)
This Wofford team is a bit better than their record suggests. They have managed a win over South Carolina and close losses on the road against Illinois, Michigan State and Pittsburgh. They have played a very challenging schedule and I think that they will defend their home court. Kent State has not been good – at all – on the road and other than a bizarre win over UAB they have not beaten a team in the Top 140. I like Terriers to head out est and pick up a nice win in a challenging tournament setting.
These are 5-point teasers:
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #517 Purdue (-8) over Iowa (7 p.m.) AND Take #532 Oklahoma State (-7) over Pacific (8 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #565 Eastern Kentucky (+7) over Morgan State (6 p.m.) AND Take #586 Ohio (-11.5) over Elon (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #554 Minnesota (-8) over Penn State (9 p.m.) AND Take #581 Northeastern (Pk) over Santa Clara (9 p.m.)
Originally Posted by Robert Ferringo
