[LLXC]

There is a substantial class difference between these two programs
that is simply not reflected in the line. The PAC-10 was
a tough conference and all seven postseason representatives
have a legitimate shot to win their respective games. The MAC
however is a mediocre conference that rarely steps up in class.
In fact, MAC teams are a combined 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in the
postseason since 2006. They are routinely beaten up by the
big boys and Temple should be considered another fade. The
Owls are a nice story but the resume is very thin with a threepoint
win over Navy as their crowning achievement. The rest of
Temple’s nine wins were against non-BSC conference schools
that combined to go 26-70. UCLA went through a mid-season
swoon but this is still a team that allowed just 250 yards per
game in non-conference wins over San Diego State, Tennessee
and Kansas State. They led the conference in tackles for
loss and finished in the top 30 nationally in total defense and
scoring defense. A limited Temple offense – potentially without
star running back Bernard Pierce
– isn’t going to trouble the Bruins.
While we wouldn’t traditionally
think of this type of matchup providing
much inspiration for a big
school like UCLA, we feel they will be plenty motivated. They
missed postseason play last year so this is a first-ever postseason
trip under head coach Rick Neuheisel. Reports from camp
have this team excited to be back together after a few weeks
off and ready to travel to Washington, D.C. With significant
fundamental advantages UCLA should dominate this game.

Recommendation: UCLA -3.5





The Badgers revisit the Champs Sports Bowl after being embarrassed
42-13 by Florida State last season. This year’s edition is
improved and not just from a win-loss perspective. The offense
is much more balanced as the emergence of junior quarterback
Scott Tolzien has given the Badgers the ability to throw
the football. Tolzien threw for 2,445 yards with a 16-to-10 TDto-
INT ratio, while finding wide receiver Nick Toon 52 times. But
against comparable competition, don’t expect the Badgers to
stray too far from their “three yards and a cloud of dust” mentality.
The difference is the “three yards…” comes a little easier
now that the forward pass is a viable weapon. While UW’s defensive
numbers look strong (18th nationally, 310 ypg), don’t
be fooled. The defense will face its toughest task of the season
in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have really turned
things around on offense with a potent attack led by quarterback
Jacory Harris. Harris finished his incredible year with 3,164
yards and 23 touchdowns. The Hurricanes
also own a strong stable
of running backs to compliment
the all-around talent at the wide
receiver position including game
breaker Leonard Hankerson. The media will spell a matchup
of size against speed, but don’t buy into that nonsense. These
two teams are identical in the trenches from a size perspective.
That means speed will once again be a factor and too tough of
one for the Big Ten team to handle. Although the Hurricanes
would have preferred the more appealing Gator Bowl, they will
pull away with their depth and speed advantages in this game.

Recommendation: Miami -3

[LLXC]

From gg's tracking:

5-6 IN BOWLS