**PREFERRED
Drexel* over Rhode Island by 7
RIU doesn’t get up for road games unless it’s against the Big East or ACC. In their own conference, or below, they seem to be very ordinary. Must have something to do with coach Baron and how he treats the games. Drexel can’t shoot straight, but has the edge being the better defensive team as home underdog. For a slow-paced team, Bruiser’s Dragons get a good share of rebounds and turnovers. DREXEL, 69-62.
**PREFERRED
Oklahoma State* over Pacific by 22
Two of Pacific’s top three scorers are 6’8’’ and 6’9”. The other one is a guard averag- ing only 9.9 points per game. Good luck to them as they attempt to feed the low post against a mass of arms and legs. UOP shoots a decent percentage from 3-point range, but it’s not a big part of their offense. They want to play a slowdown game, but with Okie State pressing off made three-pointers and running off turnovers and misses by Pacific, they figure to get a little discombobulated. Size didn’t matter to OSU when they beat Utah by 22 points. OKLAHOMA STATE, 81-59.
**PREFERRED
*Atlanta over Cleveland by 9
No team had a better pointspread mark than Atlanta through 26 games at 18-6 ATS. Despite no superstars, the Hawks have won road games against Boston, Dallas and Portland while blowing out Denver at home as well as beating the Rockets and Heat among others. The Hawks have won 12 of their first 14 home contests with all but two of the victories coming by double-digits. They should have a full house for this marquee matchup. ATLANTA 102-93.
**PREFERRED
*San Antonio over Minnesota by 2
The Timberwolves aren’t strong enough to pull the outright road upset, but they are primed to get a cover in this spot. Minnesota has been one of the hottest spread teams covering nine of their last 11 through Dec. 19. San Antonio hasn’t been playing well at home lately, failing to cover five of its past six at the AT&T Center. This also is San Antonio’s third game in four nights, while the Timberwolves last played on Saturday. Al Jefferson is playing much better now that Kevin Love is back in the rotation to help with the rebounding and inside scoring. SAN ANTONIO 96-94.
U.C.L.A. over Temple by 1
We admired Rick Neuheisel’s attempts at spin for this one, with “This is a tremendous
deal for our program to be back in the post-season,” something that we do
not expect to be reflected in the mood of the players. After limping home 3-6
down the stretch, with every loss by at least a full TD and five of them in double
figures, and having to sit for two weeks following their loss to Southern Cal to find
out if Army would beat Navy to take this spot, is there any real enthusiasm to put
the pads back on? A cross-country trip right after Christmas does not bring much
appeal, and facing a Temple team that will not inspire them in any way on a weekday
afternoon in an empty stadium makes it even worse. Meanwhile for Al Golden
and the Owls this is a major step for the program, and facing an opponent with
the pedigree of U.C.L.A. makes it even easier for them to get motivated. But questions
of enthusiasm aside, Temple faces a talent gap against a Bruin defense that
placed four players on the all-Pac 10 first team. Bernard Pierce will be healthy
again, but the going is tough against faster players than he ran past in the M.A.C.,
and while the underdog brings the grit to take this to the final possession, the polish
is still lacking to get over the hump for the outright win. U.C.L.A. 20-19.
Wisconsin over Miami F. by 2
Can there be such a thing as a “revenge” game vs. an opponent that you have not
faced before? That may actually be the case here, as Bret Bielema and his team
return to the site of what was an ugly embarrassment last December, that 42-13 loss
vs. Florida State in which an 0-3 turnover differential, with two of the miscues
being fumbles that were returned for TD’s, broke the game wide open. And while
this is not Florida State, there are enough similarities between the programs (i.e.,
another chance to face an A.C.C. team with more quickness than they have, but
less muscle in the trenches) to create a legitimate notion of redemption. The
matchups tell us that they can get it, and as such the ability to take this many points
with two even teams is hard to pass up. This time around the Badgers are no longer
a land-locked item, with excellent offensive balance of 206.7 yards per game overland
and 209.2 through the air, and while there are still some speed issues on
defense, rushing the passer was a strength. That matters against a Miami offense
that can make some big plays, but also give them up, with Jacory Harris throwing
17 interceptions, and the Hurricanes finishing 92nd in the nation in sacks allowed.
We also believe that season-ending trip to Hawaii has the Badgers more in sync
than an opponent that will have gone over a full month without playing. WISCONSIN
28-26.
Winning Points Newsletter 12/29
Reply With Quote