Ferringo 12-28-09
1-Unit Play. Take #728 San Jose State (-6) over UC-Irvine (10 p.m., Monday, Dec. 28)
I'm just going back to the well with SJSU. They managed to beat the Anteaters at Irvine a couple weeks ago and I don't see why they won't be able to handle them in San Jose tonight. I had this game penciled in at 9.0 and that's exactly what the number came in at which, to me, was probably not going to be a play. But now that this number has taken a dive I'll play the value. I suspect the line movement has something to do with the curious case of Chris Oakes, the starting forward for the Spartans. But Oakes hasn't played in any of the last three games, in which SJSU beat Irvine and won at Santa Clara while falling to Northern Colorado in a game that was, actually, closer than the final score indicated. I have really liked this SJSU team all year and I'm not going to shy away from them here, in a game against a weaker team that they have already beaten once.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #736 Cal (-25) over Utah Valley State (10:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 28)
I think I'm one of the few people left on the Cal bandwagon. I still think that this is a very talented team, with three futures pros on the roster, that just hasn't played well, hasn't been coached well, and has had some injury issues. But I also get the sense that they kind of aren't messing around now. And because they are only 6-5 they aren't going to take any game lightly, even if it's Utah Valley State. Cal doesn't just need wins, they need statement wins. Utah Valley State lost by 31 at Utah State and they lost by 25 at Minnesota. Those are two teams that are at least comparable to Cal, and I don't know if either of those squads had as much of a reason to come out and lay the wood like Cal does tonight. I think this one gets ugly.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #724 North Carolina (-21) over Rutgers (8:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 28)
It's almost January and Rutgers is playing its first road game. Not good. I generally always take Big East underdogs against the ACC. But not here. Rutgers lost its second best player and it's best frontcourt player, Greg Echineque, four games ago and in that time they haven't been impressive at all. North Carolina just has monsters on its front line and I don't see how Rutgers will get anywhere near the basket. The Scarlet Knights don't shoot all that well from the outside and this game represents a major step up in talent from what they've seen so far this season. They have played exactly one game against teams ranked in the Top 150 (Florida) and they lost by 15. Well, I think that North Carolina is better than Florida and can lay an even more savage beating on the Scarlet Knights because A) UNC is at home, B) when Rutgers played Florida the game was in Jersey and essentially a home game, C) Rutgers had Echineque when they played Florida, and D) North Carolina is better than Florida in all facets. This one is going to be close to the number. But I think that UNC wins by 24 or 26 and we cash.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #746 Gonzaga (-22.5) over Eastern Washington (9 p.m., Monday, Dec. 28)
Same idea as the other two large numbers that we're laying. There have just been an inordinate amount of blowouts in college hoops over the past couple weeks with the top teams just laying it on weaker foes. Eastern Washington is awful. They don't shoot, they don't rebound, they don't defend, and they have lost to teams like Idaho, Portland State and BYU by numbers right around this one, or worse. The last time we saw the Zags they were getting maimed by Duke. You think that one didn't stick with Mark Few and his guys over the holidays? They have only played two teams worse than No. 130 this year (Eastern Washington is No. 316). They beat No. 342 Miss. Valley St. by 18 in their first game of the year and they beat Fort Wayne by 35 in their third game of the year. In the meantime they have picked up some experience playing together and added another solid player in Bol Kong. Mark Few is one of those coaches that likes to leave his best players in during a blowout. I think Gonzaga wins by 30 or more.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #725 BYU (-5) over Arizona (9 p.m., Monday, Dec. 28)
I think that it's way too easy to take the points here with Arizona. They're at home. They're getting a handful of points. And it's "Arizona". But Jamelle Horne isn't going to play tonight (most likely) and he is the No. 1 rebounder and No. 3 scorer on a team that lacks both. BYU can play. And while they haven't had a ton of success against teams from the Big Six conferences over the last few years but I think that they finish this game off. Again, I'm kind of playing with the books in this game as I suspect that the overwhelming majority of bets in this game will come in on the "name" team at home.
Reply With Quote
Let's cash in!
R F