Doc NBA 12-28-09
3-Unit Play #702 Take Charlotte -4 ½ Over Milwaukee (7 p.m. EST, Monday)
These teams have similar records and that would seem to justify this line tonight. However, we think that there is value on the Bobcats since they are a very strong home team – in fact, they play as well as home as anyone in the NBA and they would be a major playoff factor is they could duplicate their home success when playing on the road. This team has also been underestimated by the oddsmakers at home and are on a 24-11 home ATS push stretching back to last season. Milwaukee has been pretty lousy on the road (3-9) and they have dropped five of their last six overall. Just think this number is a bit too small.
2-Unit Play #706 Take Memphis -5 ½ Over Washington (8 p.m. EST, Monday)
Memphis is another team that is traditionally underrated by the oddsmakers at home (16-5 ATS L21 home games) and we like them tonight against a Washington team that just doesn’t seem to have much of an identity this season. This team has won two of its last three and three of its last five but this team has had to have had one of the easiest schedules in the NBA recently. Memphis has also won three of their last five and all three of those wins came on this same court. And, also, Memphis has covered in six of the last eight meetings and won the last two straight up.
3-Unit Play #707 Take LA Lakers/Phoenix UNDER 215 (9 p.m. EST, Monday)
*NOTE: This was a 4-Unit play at 217 1/2 but we lowered the value due to some late line movement right before posting.
The Lakers have the ability to score some points but we think they often get lumped into the same category as teams like Golden State and Phoenix that love to run but play no defense. We beg to differ and we really like the way this Lakers team defends and they give up only 96 points per game. That this total is so high is telling us that they expect neither team to defend and we just don’t think that is the case and although we expect some points to be scored here we expected this number around 212 or so. These two teams met earlier in the month and the total wound up under 200 and there wasn’t really anything out of the ordinary for the numbers in that game (shooting percentage, ect.) . Think there is some nice value here tonight.
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Originally Posted by Jim87675
