This is SBB’s first 5-STAR newsletter total of the year (its one 5-STAR side was a nice winner with Green Bay in week three) and it comes off the heels of its 5-STAR Total of the Year winner last week with Baltimore and Chicago Under.
It’s pretty clear at this point that Chicago has quit on their coach and mailed in the season. Against a motivated and good defense, who was embarrassed last week against Carolina on national TV, we just don’t see the Bears scoring much.
Chicago lost last week to Baltimore, 31-7, and are 7 point under- dogs in this one. The Bears are 0-11 OU (-6.4 ppg) since November 03, 2002 as a 7+ dog with a total of 38 or more after a straight up loss (team=Bears and total>38 and 7<=line and p:L and 20021103<=date)
In that game, the Bears committed six turnovers while only forcing one. Chicago is 0-22 OU (-9.3 ppg) since November 07, 1993 when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road when the teams combined for more than nine points (team=Bears and p:AL and 2<=p:turnover margin and points+pooints>9 and NB and 19931107<=date).
Chicago has not been able to run the ball all season, and facing one of the stingiest run defense in the league which has allowed only 3.94 yards per carry. The Bears are 0-17 OU (-8.8 ppg) since Octo- ber 24, 1999 as a 6.5+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 4 yards per carry season-to-date (team=Bears and 6.5<=line and Average(1.*rushing yards@o:team and season)/Average(rushes@o:team and season)<4 and 19991024<=date).
Chicago has been quick to abandon the run this year, 31st in the league in carries with only 22.7 a game. The Vikings are 0-10 OU (-7.8 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite when their op- ponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25 (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and Average(o:rushes@o:team and season)<25 and 20030914<=date).
Minnesota is still 11-3 despite recent struggles and should be able to control Chicago in this one. The Vikings are 0-14 OU (-7.0 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite versus any team with fewer wins when not coming off a Monday night game (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and p:day!=Monday and wins>o:wins and 20030914<=date).
The shine has certainly come off the Vikings offense in the last couple weeks. The Bears can offer a bit of a resurgence here for that Minnesota offense, but in the cold on Monday night, we wouldn’t look for them to be explosive.
SBB PREDICTION: Minnesota 23, CHICAGO 10
Sportsbook Breakers 12/28
oints+po
Reply With Quote