Lenny Del Genio's 25* NFC Game of the Year is on New Orleans - 14 hosting Tampa Bay.
Reason: In the case of Tampa Bay, this is simply a case of playing the wrong opponent on the wrong week. Not only is this the Bucs' fifth road game in seven weeks, but they also have the unenviable task of drawing the Saints, in the Superdome, the week after they suffered their first loss of the season. Dallas showed that the key to beating New Orleans is to pressure Drew Brees. Well, TB ranks near the bottom of the league with just 26 sacks. QB Josh Freeman has a TD-INT ratio of 2-9 and the rushing attack ranks last in the league. New Orleans can essentially name the score here. They beat the Bucs 38-7 in Week 11, a game we cashed the Saints. They are still 13-6 ATS when laying points and their point differential of +185 is a NFL best. Last week, TB got just 24 points off five Seattle turnovers. They are 0-6 ATS off a road game this season. The last two seasons, the Saints are a perfect 7-0 ATS off a SU loss. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS if they lost the turnover battle by two or more the previous week. Finally, there's a system that says to play against a team playing with revenge, if they are coming off a SU win by two touchdowns or more as an underdog. As alluded to in the promo, this system is 43-17 ATS & that's over the last 25 NFL seasons! New Orleans is our 25* NFC Game of the Year.
Lenny Del Genio's 25* AFC North Total of the Year is on Over 42 in Baltimore / Pittsburgh Game.
Despite plenty of evidence to the contrary, the oddsmakers are treating this Rivalry as if both teams were still defensive stalwarts. They are anything but. Both have "good" defenses to be sure, but no longer really top five caliber thanks to injuries. It just cannot be overstated how much the loss of Safety Troy Polamalu hurt the Steelers. With him in the lineup, they are 4-1 straight up with 10 takeaways. Without him, they are 3-6 SU with just six takeaways. They rank just 10th in points allowed after being first in that category last season. Last week, they were carved up by Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to the tune of 36 points and 436 yards. Baltimore's defense commits an ungodly amount of pass interference penalties, which of course puts the opposition in good position to score. It also bears mentioning how prolific both teams offenses are. Both average 21 first downs per game. Pittsburgh is now a passing team. They have over 600 passing yards the L2 wks compared to just 140 yards on the ground. The same can be said of the Ravens, as they throw the ball 57.7% of the time compared to just 44% last year. Eight of the last nine meetings here in the Steel City have gone Over. Baltimore is 13-4 Over as a road underdog.
Lenny Del Genio | NBA Sides Sun, 12/27/09 - 6:05 PM
double-dime bet 504 MIA -7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 503 IND
Analysis:
Play on Miami at 6:05 ET. Still without F Danny Grange~r, the Pacers still stink. They began the post-Christmas Day schedule the same way the went into the holiday - with a loss - as they fell 110-98 last night in Atlanta. It was the team's fifth straight loss and 16th in their last 20 games overall. They are now just 4-11 ATS the last 15 times they've been an underdog. When they played Miami early in the season, things did not go well as they lost by 13 at home. They are just 5-13 ATS off a SU loss and have lost 10 of their last 11 road games The Heat have built some momentum with wins over Utah and the Knicks. They don't want to lose it playing at home for the only time in a four-game stretch. Defense has been the catalyst with the last five opponents being held to an average of just 88 PPG, including a season-low (87) for the Knicks on Christmas. Take Miami.
Lenny Del Genio | NBA Sides Sun, 12/27/09 - 6:05 PM
double-dime bet 508 NYK 2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 507 SAN
Analysis:
Play on New York at 6:05 ET. Doesn't this line just scream "trap spot" for the Spurs (21-35 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 L3 seasons)? First off, they are playing in the second night of back to backs, which has always been a problem for this veteran team. They are just 1-3 ATS in that scenario this season and 14-26 ATS the past three seasons. Secondly, last night's performance, likely their best of the year, seemed quite atypical. San Antonio shot a season-high 59.7% in a 112-97 over Milwaukee last night. The reserves made 22 of 29 attempts or 75.8%! Even the usually even-keel Gregg Popovich seemed impressed. "That's ridiculous," he quipped, "That's not going to happen very often." Well, thanks for the~ tip there Pop! Off a poor performance on Christmas Day where they were favored, we expect the Knicks to bounce back with a strong performance in their usual underdog role, where they are 48-32 ATS since the start of last season. They are also 28-12 ATS L40 games vs. the Western Conference. Take New York.
Lenny Del Genio | NBA Total Sun, 12/27/09 - 9:35 PM
double-dime bet 511 BOS / 512 LAC Under 188.0 Bodog
Analysis:
10* Play Under Boston/LA Clippers at 9:35 ET. Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it in January '07 on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after last year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game o~f Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Under Boston/LA Clippers is our 10* Total of the Day.
Lenny Del Genio's 12/27
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