Steve Duemig 12/27
Sunday sweep
30 Dime - Redskins
This is a classic end of season over inflated visiting favorite lined game. There are SOOOOO many red flags in this one it is not even funny. As we all know, things don't always turn out the way we want them to or think they should. If we could win all of them we would all own our own island somewhere in the South Pacific. We don't own our own island, at least I don't....yet so we have to dance with what brung us and that is sticking with basic handicapping, especially with the type of red flags we are seeing in this one. First off Dallas is in a must win, so that doesn't mean they are going to win, especially on the road against a division rival. Remember Dallas had to win the season finale last year on the road and got bombed!!! What other flags do we have. Over inflation of the line! No way should Dallas be laying a TD on the road against a division opponent. Hell the Giants were only laying 3 in this very same spot last week. Are we now to believe that the Cowboys are that much better than the Giants?? No they aren't! Washington looked so bad last week and that is what people are remembering and Dallas is coming off of beating the Saints. The Cowboys felt disrespected going into NO and rightfully so, but that's no the case in this one. All of these factors are contributing to the inflation of the line. Now add in our old favorite of "reverse line move" 83% of spread bets and ALL of the "junk bets" are on Dallas, yet the line went down from 7.5 to the current position. Boys and girls. This is the epitome of LINE VALUE and + EV
10 Dime - Texans
think we all could agree that this game is between two evenly matched teams right? Glad you agree. We have two "must win" teams playing in a game where the loser will be eliminated from playoff contention, and therefore the opener in the game was strictly the HFA for Miami at -3. Therefore creating the "even" match on a neutral field. What is it then that we look for in these types of match ups. First off, who is better in the trenches? EVEN Who has the edge at QB? Houston does. Who has the more explosive play makers? Houston does. Who is more experienced? Neither really. Miami went to the playoffs last year based off of two things. Turnover ratio which was big time in their favor last year and NOT this year. As a matter of fact it is the opposite. The Dolphins also had the experienced QB in Pennington last year. They have Chad Henne this year. But the biggest reason we are going strongly with the Texans is something that I noticed yesterday while watching the money flow and the lines on my screen. At 3:35 yesterday afternoon the line was at Miami -3 where it had been all week. Then at 3:36 the line was all of a sudden Miami -1 !!!!! Do you know how much money it takes to move off a 3 with two perceived even teams??? A TON!! It's either that or someone who is highly respected as a bettor pulled the trigger on the Texans in a big way. It was probably both. The next thing that I then looked for was some buy back in case it wasn't what I thought it was. There wasn't and so I am convinced that someone either has some info that we don't have or they are willing to trust their handicapping in a BIG WAY. I'm not proud, and I know what to look for and why a line moves like this. Want the latest example of this type of line move and how it did? You don't have to go back very far. Christmas night is when the Chargers were getting 3 from the Titans. During the day it went crashing down to +1. Who won that game?????? WE will "follow the money " on this one.
5 Dime - Ravens
The Steeler were all but out of it until the last second thrwo by Big Ben rose them from the depths of missing the playoffs to still being alive, barely. But that game showed me a lot about what the Steelers really are this year. Not all that good folks. They continue to give up 4th quarter leads. They got so bad in protecting the lead that their opwn coach put his head on the line by trying an onside kick to avoid not giving the ball back to GB. We all know what happened there and GB did get the ball and they proceeded to march down the field for the apparent game winning score. But Big Ben had other plans and he was able to rally the troops. Simply put though folks, good teams do not continue to do these types of things in the 4th quarter. This is no longer an accidental occurrence, it is what the Steelers are. The Ravens on the other hand have won when and beaten teams while sitting on the edge of extinction as well. But they are winning with authority and they ARE THE BETTER TEAM. The wrong team is favored in this one based only on the Steelers being the Super Bowl champs. Bah!!! Oh and one other thing. The explanation that I gave you for the above Houston- Miami game is the same reason in this one. One of the books went off the -3 yesterday and as I write this, it is still under the 3 and with no buy back it tells me what I need to know. I think that it must be pointed out though that the opener was -2 and then moved to -3. That could be two reasons, first, positioon taking in case it rose above the 3, or to get it out of the teaser window Ravens are not only the better team here, they are who the better bettors like as well.
AS ALWAYS POINTS WOULD BE GREAT.
Reply With Quote