STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

OVERAL: 6-3 IN BOWLS



219) KENTUCKY vs. (220) CLEMSON
StatFox Dave says: The underdog Wildcats roll into Nashville to
rock with the Tigers. Wildcat fans will be dancing in the streets following
a Kentucky outright upset on Dec. 27. Kentucky, winners of
three of its last four, should have no problem downing the Tigers,
who are 1-6 ATS as bowl favorites. If Clemson’s poor bowl record
isn’t enough, the fact that ACC teams are 9-33 as favorites in bowl
games should leave bettors with no option other than playing a hot
Wildcats team. The Wildcats were 5-0 ATS this year on the road and
Statfox’s FoxSheets game simulator predicts a 29-28 Kentucky
upset. SEC teams are 27-11 as an underdog in all bowl games.
Lastly, the underdog covers at a 64-percent clip in all bowl games
that start Christmas day until the New Year.
Play: Kentucky


The 2009 Music City Bowl matches the same teams that played in the ‘06 game, Kentucky and Clemson. Like that game, the Tigers are
again the heavy favorite, laying 7.5 points. They were upset in ‘06 though, 28-20. The ’09 version of Clemson lost in the ACC title game and carries the
disappointment of yet another season without a BCS bowl berth. The Tigers were 8-5 SU and 7-5 ATS, but just 2-3 vs. fellow bowl teams. They are looking to
snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak in bowl games. Kentucky is 7-5 with two sizeable upset wins to its credit, against. Auburn and Georgia. The
Wildcats are in this game for the fourth time in five bowl appearances, and have won three straight bowl games overall.
StatFox Forecaster: CLEMSON 29, KENTUCKY 25








12/27/09 (111) HOUSTON at (112) MIAMI
Take a look at this trend regarding Miami’s ability to
bounce back from tough losses lately: MIAMI is 0-9 ATS (-
9.9 Units) after a loss by six or fewer points over the last
three seasons. The average score was MIAMI 14.9, OPPONENT
29.3 - (Rating = 4*). Sunday’s setback at Tennessee
was costly, especially with the way the Dolphins fought
back from the early 18-point deficit. It doesn’t get much
easier here as a Houston team that has won two straight
games to climb back in the playoff picture comes to town.
With the way the Texans score and the capability the Dolphins
have shown to put up points at home, I would expect
this game to be won by offense. In which case, I have to
like the prolific road dog. Plus, if you look at the overall
numbers of these teams, Houston is outgaining opponents
by 55 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play, while the Dolphins
are -3 YPG and -0.9 YPP. This looks like a spot where
an unusually high home-field advantage is being given.
Take advantage.
Play: Houston +3



12/27/09 (117) JACKSONVILLE at (118) NEW ENGLAND
Here’s an interesting situation: Play Against - Any team
(JACKSONVILLE) - poor team - outscored by opponents by
four or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more
last game. (36-16 over the last five seasons.) (69.2 percent,
+18.4 units. Rating = 1*). What is interesting about it is that
this is supposedly a huge game in terms of playoff implications
yet one of the teams is “poor”. I’ve been harping on
this for the last five weeks, but I just don’t think the Jaguars
are a playoff team, and I believe this is finally the point
which they are put out of their misery. Jacksonville has
never won at New England, losing by an average of 13 PPG
in five previous tries. The Patriots have not lost at home in
2009, going 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS while outscoring foes by 17
PPG. The StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 14-point win
by the Pats and the Power Ratings say this line should be -
16. I agree.
Play: New England -8



12/27/09 (119) BALTIMORE at (120) PITTSBURGH
Did Pittsburgh salvage its season with the last-second win
over Green Bay or did it simply just extend the inevitable? I
tend to side with the latter, since the Steelers’ last two
games are against fellow playoff contenders, and they
have played anything like one in recent weeks. I’m not so
much concerned about their wins and losses as I am about
the fact that their defense has yielded about 4.5 yards per
rush and 7.4 yards per pass over the last four games. They
are flat out struggling and on Sunday, head coach Mike
Tomlin’s team will be squaring off against a team that has
shown way better balance of late, both offensively/defensively,
and run/pass. The Ravens are coming off back-toback
games in which they’ve outscored foes 79-10. They
are playing better than Pittsburgh, and the Outplay Factor
Ratings (Balt +9.1, Pitt +0.8) show they are just a better
team overall. On top of all that, the Ravens are the dog.
Play: Baltimore +2.5




12/27/09 (123) ST LOUIS at (124) ARIZONA
In looking at all of the double-digit line games for the
week, I saw a few that could turn into blowout games, but
none moreso than this one. The main reason is simply because
of the fact that the Rams can’t score, and while they
have been playing with heart of late, it’s going to take
more than that here to keep up with the Arizona attack.
They haven’t topped the 17-point mark in five weeks and
overall are scoring just 8.6 PPG on the road. Arizona has
clinched the NFC West title for the second year in a row,
but don’t make the mistake of believing the Cardinals will
be content with that. The StatFox Game Estimator calls for
a 18-point win by the Cards and the Power Ratings say this
line should be -19.
Play: Arizona -14
Report to moderator 67.165.161.17 (?) STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

OVERAL: 6-3 IN BOWLS



219) KENTUCKY vs. (220) CLEMSON
StatFox Dave says: The underdog Wildcats roll into Nashville to
rock with the Tigers. Wildcat fans will be dancing in the streets following
a Kentucky outright upset on Dec. 27. Kentucky, winners of
three of its last four, should have no problem downing the Tigers,
who are 1-6 ATS as bowl favorites. If Clemson’s poor bowl record
isn’t enough, the fact that ACC teams are 9-33 as favorites in bowl
games should leave bettors with no option other than playing a hot
Wildcats team. The Wildcats were 5-0 ATS this year on the road and
Statfox’s FoxSheets game simulator predicts a 29-28 Kentucky
upset. SEC teams are 27-11 as an underdog in all bowl games.
Lastly, the underdog covers at a 64-percent clip in all bowl games
that start Christmas day until the New Year.
Play: Kentucky


The 2009 Music City Bowl matches the same teams that played in the ‘06 game, Kentucky and Clemson. Like that game, the Tigers are
again the heavy favorite, laying 7.5 points. They were upset in ‘06 though, 28-20. The ’09 version of Clemson lost in the ACC title game and carries the
disappointment of yet another season without a BCS bowl berth. The Tigers were 8-5 SU and 7-5 ATS, but just 2-3 vs. fellow bowl teams. They are looking to
snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak in bowl games. Kentucky is 7-5 with two sizeable upset wins to its credit, against. Auburn and Georgia. The
Wildcats are in this game for the fourth time in five bowl appearances, and have won three straight bowl games overall.
StatFox Forecaster: CLEMSON 29, KENTUCKY 25








12/27/09 (111) HOUSTON at (112) MIAMI
Take a look at this trend regarding Miami’s ability to
bounce back from tough losses lately: MIAMI is 0-9 ATS (-
9.9 Units) after a loss by six or fewer points over the last
three seasons. The average score was MIAMI 14.9, OPPONENT
29.3 - (Rating = 4*). Sunday’s setback at Tennessee
was costly, especially with the way the Dolphins fought
back from the early 18-point deficit. It doesn’t get much
easier here as a Houston team that has won two straight
games to climb back in the playoff picture comes to town.
With the way the Texans score and the capability the Dolphins
have shown to put up points at home, I would expect
this game to be won by offense. In which case, I have to
like the prolific road dog. Plus, if you look at the overall
numbers of these teams, Houston is outgaining opponents
by 55 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play, while the Dolphins
are -3 YPG and -0.9 YPP. This looks like a spot where
an unusually high home-field advantage is being given.
Take advantage.
Play: Houston +3



12/27/09 (117) JACKSONVILLE at (118) NEW ENGLAND
Here’s an interesting situation: Play Against - Any team
(JACKSONVILLE) - poor team - outscored by opponents by
four or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more
last game. (36-16 over the last five seasons.) (69.2 percent,
+18.4 units. Rating = 1*). What is interesting about it is that
this is supposedly a huge game in terms of playoff implications
yet one of the teams is “poor”. I’ve been harping on
this for the last five weeks, but I just don’t think the Jaguars
are a playoff team, and I believe this is finally the point
which they are put out of their misery. Jacksonville has
never won at New England, losing by an average of 13 PPG
in five previous tries. The Patriots have not lost at home in
2009, going 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS while outscoring foes by 17
PPG. The StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 14-point win
by the Pats and the Power Ratings say this line should be -
16. I agree.
Play: New England -8



12/27/09 (119) BALTIMORE at (120) PITTSBURGH
Did Pittsburgh salvage its season with the last-second win
over Green Bay or did it simply just extend the inevitable? I
tend to side with the latter, since the Steelers’ last two
games are against fellow playoff contenders, and they
have played anything like one in recent weeks. I’m not so
much concerned about their wins and losses as I am about
the fact that their defense has yielded about 4.5 yards per
rush and 7.4 yards per pass over the last four games. They
are flat out struggling and on Sunday, head coach Mike
Tomlin’s team will be squaring off against a team that has
shown way better balance of late, both offensively/defensively,
and run/pass. The Ravens are coming off back-toback
games in which they’ve outscored foes 79-10. They
are playing better than Pittsburgh, and the Outplay Factor
Ratings (Balt +9.1, Pitt +0.8) show they are just a better
team overall. On top of all that, the Ravens are the dog.
Play: Baltimore +2.5




12/27/09 (123) ST LOUIS at (124) ARIZONA
In looking at all of the double-digit line games for the
week, I saw a few that could turn into blowout games, but
none moreso than this one. The main reason is simply because
of the fact that the Rams can’t score, and while they
have been playing with heart of late, it’s going to take
more than that here to keep up with the Arizona attack.
They haven’t topped the 17-point mark in five weeks and
overall are scoring just 8.6 PPG on the road. Arizona has
clinched the NFC West title for the second year in a row,
but don’t make the mistake of believing the Cardinals will
be content with that. The StatFox Game Estimator calls for
a 18-point win by the Cards and the Power Ratings say this
line should be -19.
Play: Arizona -14
Report to moderator 67.165.161.17 (?)
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

OVERAL: 6-3 IN BOWLS



219) KENTUCKY vs. (220) CLEMSON
StatFox Dave says: The underdog Wildcats roll into Nashville to
rock with the Tigers. Wildcat fans will be dancing in the streets following
a Kentucky outright upset on Dec. 27. Kentucky, winners of
three of its last four, should have no problem downing the Tigers,
who are 1-6 ATS as bowl favorites. If Clemson’s poor bowl record
isn’t enough, the fact that ACC teams are 9-33 as favorites in bowl
games should leave bettors with no option other than playing a hot
Wildcats team. The Wildcats were 5-0 ATS this year on the road and
Statfox’s FoxSheets game simulator predicts a 29-28 Kentucky
upset. SEC teams are 27-11 as an underdog in all bowl games.
Lastly, the underdog covers at a 64-percent clip in all bowl games
that start Christmas day until the New Year.
Play: Kentucky


The 2009 Music City Bowl matches the same teams that played in the ‘06 game, Kentucky and Clemson. Like that game, the Tigers are
again the heavy favorite, laying 7.5 points. They were upset in ‘06 though, 28-20. The ’09 version of Clemson lost in the ACC title game and carries the
disappointment of yet another season without a BCS bowl berth. The Tigers were 8-5 SU and 7-5 ATS, but just 2-3 vs. fellow bowl teams. They are looking to
snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak in bowl games. Kentucky is 7-5 with two sizeable upset wins to its credit, against. Auburn and Georgia. The
Wildcats are in this game for the fourth time in five bowl appearances, and have won three straight bowl games overall.
StatFox Forecaster: CLEMSON 29, KENTUCKY 25








12/27/09 (111) HOUSTON at (112) MIAMI
Take a look at this trend regarding Miami’s ability to
bounce back from tough losses lately: MIAMI is 0-9 ATS (-
9.9 Units) after a loss by six or fewer points over the last
three seasons. The average score was MIAMI 14.9, OPPONENT
29.3 - (Rating = 4*). Sunday’s setback at Tennessee
was costly, especially with the way the Dolphins fought
back from the early 18-point deficit. It doesn’t get much
easier here as a Houston team that has won two straight
games to climb back in the playoff picture comes to town.
With the way the Texans score and the capability the Dolphins
have shown to put up points at home, I would expect
this game to be won by offense. In which case, I have to
like the prolific road dog. Plus, if you look at the overall
numbers of these teams, Houston is outgaining opponents
by 55 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play, while the Dolphins
are -3 YPG and -0.9 YPP. This looks like a spot where
an unusually high home-field advantage is being given.
Take advantage.
Play: Houston +3



12/27/09 (117) JACKSONVILLE at (118) NEW ENGLAND
Here’s an interesting situation: Play Against - Any team
(JACKSONVILLE) - poor team - outscored by opponents by
four or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more
last game. (36-16 over the last five seasons.) (69.2 percent,
+18.4 units. Rating = 1*). What is interesting about it is that
this is supposedly a huge game in terms of playoff implications
yet one of the teams is “poor”. I’ve been harping on
this for the last five weeks, but I just don’t think the Jaguars
are a playoff team, and I believe this is finally the point
which they are put out of their misery. Jacksonville has
never won at New England, losing by an average of 13 PPG
in five previous tries. The Patriots have not lost at home in
2009, going 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS while outscoring foes by 17
PPG. The StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 14-point win
by the Pats and the Power Ratings say this line should be -
16. I agree.
Play: New England -8



12/27/09 (119) BALTIMORE at (120) PITTSBURGH
Did Pittsburgh salvage its season with the last-second win
over Green Bay or did it simply just extend the inevitable? I
tend to side with the latter, since the Steelers’ last two
games are against fellow playoff contenders, and they
have played anything like one in recent weeks. I’m not so
much concerned about their wins and losses as I am about
the fact that their defense has yielded about 4.5 yards per
rush and 7.4 yards per pass over the last four games. They
are flat out struggling and on Sunday, head coach Mike
Tomlin’s team will be squaring off against a team that has
shown way better balance of late, both offensively/defensively,
and run/pass. The Ravens are coming off back-toback
games in which they’ve outscored foes 79-10. They
are playing better than Pittsburgh, and the Outplay Factor
Ratings (Balt +9.1, Pitt +0.8) show they are just a better
team overall. On top of all that, the Ravens are the dog.
Play: Baltimore +2.5




12/27/09 (123) ST LOUIS at (124) ARIZONA
In looking at all of the double-digit line games for the
week, I saw a few that could turn into blowout games, but
none moreso than this one. The main reason is simply because
of the fact that the Rams can’t score, and while they
have been playing with heart of late, it’s going to take
more than that here to keep up with the Arizona attack.
They haven’t topped the 17-point mark in five weeks and
overall are scoring just 8.6 PPG on the road. Arizona has
clinched the NFC West title for the second year in a row,
but don’t make the mistake of believing the Cardinals will
be content with that. The StatFox Game Estimator calls for
a 18-point win by the Cards and the Power Ratings say this
line should be -19.
Play: Arizona -14