Clemson (-7) Kentucky (52)
Kentucky upset Clemson in the 2006 Music City Bowl as a double-digit underdog and the
Wildcats have won bowl games each of the last three seasons including this bowl twice.
Playing close to home should be an edge for the Wildcats and motivation will likely be
stronger on the side of the underdog as Clemson had hopes of greater things this season.
Clemson lost narrowly in the ACC championship and the consolation prize is a significant drop
from the Orange Bowl bid that Georgia Tech received for being just a tiny bit better in that
game. Kentucky endured a challenging SEC schedule and Clemson was soundly defeated by
South Carolina from the conference. The situation was difficult for Clemson in that game but
the Tigers only had two wins away from home all year and they needed OT in one of them.
Statistically this looks like a mismatch as Clemson has edges on both sides of the ball but
Kentucky has found ways to stay in games. The Wildcats are also a deep team as injuries
have allowed several players to become comfortable in many roles. Kentucky closed the year
winning five of the final seven games with the final game loss to Tennessee coming in
overtime. Kentucky won three SEC road games including two wins against bowl teams and
the Wildcats are a team that can find a way to play competitively here. Clemson has several
great players led by C.J. Spiller who will always be a threat on special teams but QB Kyle
Parker completed just 55 percent of his passes on the year and threw 12 interceptions and
Kentucky’s defense will play better than the numbers indicate as bad losses to Florida and
Alabama greatly weighed on the statistics. This game projects to be a lower scoring contest
even though most recent Clemson games have played ‘over’ as both offenses should be
managed by defenses that will be well prepared. CLEMSON BY 3
RATING 2: Kentucky (+7) over Clemson
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (52) Clemson/Kentuck
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
**************************************** ********** ********************
RATING 5 PITTSBURGH (-2½) over Baltimore
RATING 4 JACKSONVILLE (+8) over New England
RATING 3 BUFFALO (+8) over Atlanta
RATING 2 SAN FRANCISCO (-11½) over Detroit
RATING 1 HOUSTON (+3) over Miami
PITTSBURGH (-2½) Baltimore (41) 12:00 PM
Even if it does not ultimately lead to a playoff spot, last week’s win was big for the Steelers
and shows that this is still an elite caliber team despite some major bumps in the road this
season. Baltimore has cruised to back-to-back blowout wins against the NFC North but the
Ravens have been suspect against quality competition and there has been little success for
this franchise in this stadium. The Ravens won the first meeting between these teams, but
barely, and with QB Roethlisberger on the sidelines so this will be a key revenge spot. The
Ravens look like a playoff team this week but that could change in a hurry as this defense is
not nearly as strong as its reputation. STEELERS BY 10
NEW ENGLAND (-8) Jacksonville (43½) 12:00 PM
The Patriots had nearly as many yards in Buffalo penalties as they did on offense last week as
this team is out of sync still. Jacksonville’s offense had an impressive performance last week
but it was not enough to upset the Colts. This is a do-or-die game for the Jaguars who are in
favorable position among the 7-7 teams in the AFC picture should Denver and Baltimore
falter. Jacksonville faces Cleveland next week so this is a team that is far from out of it. New
England has been a dominant home team this season but the Patriots have been a poor ATS
team in recent years as big favorites. New England has some breathing room with the
Dolphins and Jets losing last week. PATRIOTS BY 3
ATLANTA (-8) Buffalo (41½) 12:00 PM
At 7-7 Atlanta is still technically alive in the playoff race but the odds are quite steep. The
Falcons have had a disappointing year but can still close the season with a winning record
with a strong finish. Buffalo actually out-gained New England last week but was on the wrong
end of a lot of penalties to fall to 5-9. The Bills have proven to be capable underdogs as the
defense has a knack for creating turnovers but the offense has a hard time staying on the
field. The Falcons got QB Matt Ryan back last week but the offense has averaged just 15-
points per game the last four weeks. FALCONS BY 4
SAN FRANCISCO (-11½) Detroit (41) 3:05 PM
Drew Stanton played the second half for the Lions last week and though he was not great, the
team rallied when he was in the game. Look for Stanton to start this week if Matthew Stafford
is still out of commission. The 49ers slim playoff hopes crashed last week with turnovers being
the culprit. San Francisco has won and covered in the past three home games while Detroit
has been a terrible ATS team in any situation, including just one road cover all season. San
Francisco is a risky team to lay points with but the Lions really are that bad despite showing a
bit of life last week in a game that should never have been as close as it was. 49ERS by 16
MIAMI (-3) Houston (45) 12:00 PM
Houston and Miami are both lumped into the 7-7 crowd in the AFC playoff race as the
Dolphins blew a great opportunity last week, losing in overtime. The chances for either team
are not particularly great as both teams will face very tough games next week as well. Miami
has some hope as they have a win over Jacksonville, the team with the best conference
record of the 7-7 teams. Denver and Baltimore are both a game ahead of the pace however.
Houston has out-scored foes by 41 points this season while Miami has been out-scored but
the Dolphins have faced the top rated schedule in the NFL. Miami is a tough team to trust as
home favorite while the Texans appear to have more potential. TEXANS BY 3
NFL OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
NFL: ‘UNDER’ Tampa Bay at New Orleans
The last five Bucs games have all played ‘under’ as the offense had scored just 57 points in
that span. Tampa Bay’s defense has been respectable in recent weeks including last
week’s big win in Seattle. The total in any New Orleans game will be inflated and this could
be a tough spot for the team after losing its first game last week. The Saints have scored
just 73 points in regulation over the last three games which is well down from the season
numbers and there will be a great emphasis on the defensive side of the ball this week off
the loss. 45 points were scored in the first meeting between these teams to stay ‘under’ the
total and 21 of those points were added late in the game. Drew Brees had just 187 yards
passing in the first meeting and both teams will likely run the ball frequently.
Nellys greensheet 12/27
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