[LLXC]

TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: Kentucky +7
Kentucky +7 Clemson
Music City Bowl @ Nashville, Tenn. O/U 52 5:30 pm PT
Kentucky has never been one for impressive numbers or flashy play. They find ways to
not only be competitive but beat teams that are statistically superior. Skim through
the offensive and defensive numbers of this matchup and you won’t find many aspects
that don’t favor Clemson. But with the exception of games against Florida and
Alabama, Kentucky has been in every game this season. They lost to Tennessee in
overtime, won at Auburn and Georgia and lost at South Carolina by two. The only
“bad loss” was by seven points at home to Mississippi State with a rookie quarterback
making his first SEC start. Clemson’s season was typical with big wins and big disappointments.
And while they hold various edges on both sides of the ball, they hardly
seem worthy of laying a touchdown on a neutral field against an SEC team. Reports
indicate that the Tigers, who were one defensive stop from going to the BCS, have
had major issues selling their allotment of tickets. Kentucky on the other hand sold
out its share within one day. Early bowl games are all about motivation and UK has
a strong history (three straight wins) of coming up with big efforts. Take the points

[LLXC]

TEDDY COVERS
Best Bet: Kentucky +7
Kentucky +7 Clemson
Music City Bowl @ Nashville, Tenn. O/U 52 5:30 pm PT
Clemson put up big numbers all year, led by ACC Player of the Year CJ Spiller, who
ranked fourth in the NCAA in all purpose yards. But the Tigers came up short
down the stretch, as their six-game winning streak was snapped by South Carolina
in the regular season finale. Dabo Sweeney’s squad then lost to Georgia Tech
in the ACC Championship Game, relegating the Tigers to another Music City
Bowl appearance instead of a coveted BCS berth. Clemson has lost bowl games
as a favorite in each of the last three years, including a loss to this same Kentucky
team, in this same bowl, back in 2006. And the Music City Bowl has been a
house of horrors for favorites; just 2-9 ATS over the last 11 years. Kentucky’s stats
weren’t particularly impressive -- tenth out of 12 SEC teams in both total offense
and total defense. But head coach Rich Brooks has never been about compiling
stats -- he’s about winning games, often with inferior talent. Kentucky has
won its last three bowls including twice as an underdog. Take the points with the
more motivated team who is more than capable of winning this game outright

[LLXC]

BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Kansas City +13.5
Kansas City +13.5 Cincinnati
Kansas City 6 at Cincinnati (-3) 16 - 2008 O/U 41 10 am PT
This looks like the perfect time to go against the Bengals, and the place
or opponent matters little in my opinion. Cincinnati had a great effort
last week in San Diego, falling three points short of a win after rallying
to tie the game with a minute left. Of course the Bengals are also dealing
with the death of Chris Henry, which created a very emotional week
and game last week. I would imagine the entire team will go to a funeral
service on Monday or Tuesday, so this week will be completely different
emotionally. Last week they also had a marquee opponent, with the other
AFC bye at stake. This week, they face the lowly Chiefs, who aren’t going
anywhere and pose no real threat to the Bengals. Cincinnati has yet
to cover as a favorite this year, and has played a ton of close, low scoring
games. They beat Cleveland 16-7 and Detroit 23-13 in their last two home
games as double-digit chalk. Look for the Chiefs to get the job done this
week as the Bengals come out flat and struggle for the straight up victory

[LLXC]

DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Pittsburgh -2.5
Baltimore Pittsburgh -2.5
Pittsburgh (+9) 17 at Baltimore 20 - Week 12 O/U 41 10 am PT
All controversy and on-sides kicks aside, the Pittsburgh Steelers did win last
week and for the time being have a shot to make the playoffs. And while the
media pundits will tell you that Mike Tomlin opted for the on-side attempt because
his defense was terrible, the fact is that they had allowed a total of 14
points a few minutes into the fourth quarter. This week at home we would
again expect to see the high-flying Pittsburgh passing attack in play. While Baltimore
has gotten plenty of press coverage after a couple of wins, it has to be
pointed out that they came against the Bears and Lions at home in very favorable
situations. Already weakened on defense the Ravens lost another cornerback
and will be very susceptible to the big pass play. Pittsburgh will exploit
this weakness and should score 30 points or more. Additionally with Baltimore’s
kicking woes this stadium gives us a huge advantage with Pittsburgh
in a close game. We like the momentum changing win against Green Bay and
will call for Pittsburgh to get the win again this week. Lay the short number.

[LLXC]

ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Denver +7.5
Denver +7.5 Philadelphia
Philadelphia 21 at Denver (-4) 49 - 2005 O/U 41.5 1 pm PT
The Broncos take to the road this weekend with a matchup against the Eagles.
Playoff implications loom large for both sides, but certainly more pressure is
on the road side. Denver was figured to be a lock for the playoffs after a rousing
6-2 start. However, they’ve now lost six of their last eight and it seems the
bottom if falling out -- or at least is certainly looked that way last week after
a home loss to the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Eagles enter this game winners of
five straight. They still have some issues however including a defense that’s
known for poor tackling. The stop-unit really hasn’t been asked much of late
with a slate of San Francisco, Chicago and Atlanta. Denver will at least bring a
run/pass combination that should be able to score points in this game. The
Broncos matchup well defensively with a capable secondary, including cornerback
Champ Bailey who can challenge DeSean Jackson. Denver should be
able to limit the amount of big plays, an obviously key to slowing down the
Eagles’ offense. Expect a more motivated club in Denver to hang in this one.

[LLXC]

ROB VENO
Best Bet: Green Bay -13.5
Seattle Green Bay -13.5
Green Bay (+1) 27 at Seattle 17 - 2008 O/U 41.5 10 am PT
I feel obligated to fade Seattle on the road where its defense has been an absolute
disaster all season long. In their seven games away from Qwest Field, Seattle has
allowed 411.3 total yards and 30.3 points per game. Further dissection unveils a
pass defense which has been torched for 71.2% completions and 278.9 yards per
contest. The inept statistical numbers continue on but the bottom line really sticks
out as the Seahawks have gone 1-6 straight up on the road with all six losses being
by double digits. What is worse is the fact that Seattle appears to have thrown in
the towel on this campaign. Last week’s seven-point performance at home against
Tampa Bay was a disgrace. The zero second half points scored by Seattle in that
game means they have scored a grand total of six points after intermission in their
last three games combined. All three were against non-playoff teams. While the Seahawks
are sinking, Green Bay is on a current 5-0-1 streak against the spread. Their
passing attack has a hand in glove matchup here that it will fully exploit and DC Dom
Capers’ defense will immediately atone for last week against this anemic opponent.

[LLXC]

ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Under 50
Tampa Bay New Orleans -14.5
New Orleans (-10.5) 38 at Tampa Bay 7 - Week 11 O/U 50 10 am PT
Over the course of the last two months, games involving Tampa Bay haven’t exactly been
emotion filled and hard fought. At least one of the two sides typically gave a halfhearted
performance – more often than not the Buccaneers – and the results showed. The last
five weeks we’ve seen game scores of 45, 37, 22, 29, and 31. On the opposite end of the
spectrum are the Saints, who have posted games scores of 50 and above in over half of
their games. The problem however could be New Orleans’ focus after losing its perfect
season with the loss to Dallas. NFC home field advantage is technically up for grabs but
with Tampa and Carolina to close out the year, the Saints looked poised to wrap things
up. As for Tampa, they come in off a road win over disinterested Seattle. If you eliminate
the 18-point third quarter from that game (five drives of less than 50 yards) you come up
with 36 points over the last 18 quarters from the Bucs. From a historical trend perspective,
totals of 50 or more in the NFL dating back to 2000 have gone under nearly 60%
of the time based on over 230 games. Baring a Josh Cribbs-like special teams’ performance
or multiple defensive touchdowns, this one should land under the total as well