These teams met just 3 seasons ago in this very Bowl where 10 point underdog Kentucky upset Clemson 28-20. The Wildcats are in a fourth straight Bowl and Clemson is Bowling for a fifth straight season. There are rumors circulating the Kentucky coach Brooks will announce his retirement either just before or after this game so there might be an emotional edge for Kentucky. Both teams are off losses with Clemson losing in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech (for the second time this season) while Kentucky fell in OT to Tennessee, loss 25 in a row to the Vols. Clemson has statistical edges on both sides of the football but the edges are not that great. Clemson RB/KR Spiller had a great season while Kentucky RB Cobb also had a solid though less heralded season. Clemson's most significant win was at Miami while Kentucky had a pair of wins over Auburn and Georgia, both on the road. Both offenses were better running than passing. Both defenses rank in the Top 20 against the pass. This portends a shortened game featuring more running than passing, lending itself to a low scoring contest. The lack of a developed passing game puts the team in the lead in great position to grind out first downs and control clock. Clemson's edge on special teams enhances their overall slight edges with the explosiveness of Spiller perhaps the difference. Clemson may have additional motivation to avenge that previous loss to Kentucky. Their wins this season came against more successful foes as Clemson's 8 wins were against teams that went 50-37 against the rest of their schedules. Kentucky's 7 wins were against teams that went just 27-38 against all others, notwithstanding the Wildcats' two SEC wins cited above. The intangible factors are pretty much even making the selection for this game more heavily weighted towards talent. That edge goes to Clemson. Clemson is forecast to win 27-16, making
CLEMSON a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: GREEN BAY - 14 over Seattle - Seattle was woeful in last week's inexplicable home loss to lowly Tampa Bay as QB Hasselbeck tossed a quartet of interceptions raising questions that he might be bothered by nagging injuries more than he is letting on. The Seahawks may well have packed it in for the season. Green Bay plays to secure a Wild Card and they are commended for their effort in last week's loss at Pittsburgh in what was a negative situation. The Pack rallied several times in that game only to lose on the game's final play. It's a big number to lay but it's hard to make a case for the underdog against a Packer offense that continues to be productive. The Packers have actually been solid on both sides of the ball, ranking # 6 in total offense and # 2 in total defense. Seattle has performed poorly on the road, losing 6 of 7 (winning only at St Louis) with every loss by double digits, 4 by 17 or more. Green Bay has feasted on lower tier teams this season and will be highly motivated to preserve their Wild Card status against a foe they should easily dominate. Green Bay wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
MIAMI - 3 over Houston - This is a Wild Card elimination game as both teams are 7-7 and the loser is eliminated from the Playoffs. The winner is not assured of a Playoff spot but they have an excellent chance to pull even with current Wild Card frontrunners Baltimore and Denver, each of whom have difficult road games this week. Houston has failed to come through several times in so-called pressure situations and last week barely beat flu ridden St Louis by a FG. Miami rallied from a deep deficit only to fall in overtime at Tennessee showing resiliency in a second straight road game. Miami seems to have the stronger will, the better coaching and a much stronger running game. Both teams have flaws but Houston's tend to be magnified at critical stages of games. Houston tends to play well early in games whereas Miami has fared better in late stages of games. There are enough edges to warrant a call on the hosts. Miami wins 27-17.
SAN FRANCISCO - 12 over Detroit - Credit Detroit with a game effort last week to rally from a 17-0 halftime deficit to twice tie Arizona at 17 and 24 before allowing the game winning TD in the final 2 minutes. Both teams are looking towards 2010 with the 49ers having brighter prospects at the moment, especially with their nicely developing offense. The emergence of QB Smith combined with an elite RB (Gore) and WR (Crabtree) form the nucleus of an offense which should have success against a defense allowing a league high 36 points per game on the road. San Francisco has 4 double digit home wins this season including each of their last two home games which were against teams much better than the Lions (Arizona and Jacksonville). Detroit will compete for a while and they seem to have turned the corner but they lack depth and experience. The 49ers have a significant edge on defense, especially against the run, and are allowing a dozen points less per game than the Lions. Coach Singletary has earned the respect of his team and they should put forth a max effort in their final home game of the season with a chance to finish at .500. San Francisco wins 34-16.
Minnesota - 7 over Chicago (Monday) - The Vikings have had their problems on the road of late, dropping their last two such contests at Arizona and Carolina by a combined 56-24 score. Chicago is playing out the string and cannot truly play spoiler as the Vikes have already clinched the NFC North title. But Minny is now in danger of losing the # 2 NFC seed to Philadelphia. We've seen teams out of contention use the national limelight as a stage to at least get some satisfaction as San Francisco upset Arizona two weeks ago and last Sunday night saw Carolina upset these very Vikings. But Chicago has not shown the same signs entering this contest as have those other teams that pulled off big home upsets. The night cold will be a challenge for the Vikes in general but not for QB Favre who enjoyed these conditions when with Green Bay. Much will be made of his sideline confrontation with Coach Childress who wanted to take him out of last week's game with the Vikes up 7-6 but it's not really an issue. It's tempting to make a case for the Bears but the edges just are not there. With Minnesota hearing Philly footsteps they should put forth a fully focused effort here to get back on track as a legitimate NFC contender. They have all the fundamental edges. Minnesota wins 27-13.
Best of the Rest (Opinions) TENNESSEE - 3 over San Diego (Friday) Oakland + 3 ½ over CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI - 14 over Kansas City Baltimore + 2 ½ over PITTSBURGH
Denver + 7 over PHILADELPHIA ARIZONA - 14 over St Louis
The Rest (Leans) Buffalo + 9 over ATLANTA Carolina + 7 over N Y GIANTS
NEW ORLEANS 14 over Tampa Bay Jacksonville + 7 ½ over NEW ENGLAND
INDIANAPOLIS - 5 over N Y Jets WASHINGTON + 7 over Dallas
Best of the NFL Totals San Diego/Tennessee OVER 47 Buffalo/Atlanta UNDER 41
Baltimore/Pittsburgh UNDER 41 Detroit/San Francisco OVER 41 ½
N Y Jets/Indianapolis UNDER 40 ½ Dallas/Washington UNDER 42
Logical appoach newsletter 13-6 in bowls 12/27
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