Texans (+3, -120) over @Dolphins Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Houston won their second consecutive game last week after dropping their previous four by a total of 19 points. The Texans are still fighting for a Wild Card spot, and that possibility makes this game a must if they want to be alive heading into their season finale at home against the Patriots in two weeks. If you just look at the 16-13 final score in Houston’s win at St. Louis last week, you may be unimpressed. But the Texans absolutely dominated that game, but it just didn’t show up on the scoreboard. Houston out-yarded the Rams 419-237 while winning first downs 22-15. Quarterback Matt Schaub had another excellent passing game as he threw for 367 yards (threw for 365 the previous week) on a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt while completing 70% (28-40) of his passes. Schaub and the Texans’ passing game are in great form right now, and it should continue this week in Miami.
The Dolphins will have a tough time getting off the mat for this game. Last week at Tennessee, they trailed 24-6 in the third quarter before making a furious rally to tie the game and take it into overtime. Their momentum continued as they won the coin toss and got the ball first, but quarterback Chad Henne threw an interception which set-up the Titans on a short field to kick the winning field goal. The Dolphins lost 27-24 in the extra session, and that loss all but knocked them out of the playoff picture unless a lot of breaks go their way. Off that heartbreaking loss, it’s hard to imagine Miami getting a good week of practice and preparation in as the reality of what last week’s loss means sinks in.
Not only do the Texans have a big situational edge, but they also have a nice match-up edge working in their favor. Matt Schaub and the passing game should have a field day throwing the ball on the weak Miami secondary. The Dolphins have only faced five strong passing attacks this season, and the results haven’t been pretty. They allowed 352 and 323 passing yards to the Patriots in their two games, 276 to the Saints, 286 to the Chargers, and 295 to the Colts. Miami went just 1-4 straight-up and 2-3 against the spread in those games with both covers coming against the Patriots in a 10-point loss and a 1-point win. Aside from their 28-point win over the Bills, the Dolphins other three home wins have come by just 4, 2, and 1 point. The underdog is on a perfect 8-0 spread run in Miami’s last eight games, and with the situation and match-up favoring Houston, we expect the dog to extend that run to nine games. Texans by 4.

Texans @Dolphins over 45 Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik
Barring a tropical rainstorm, this appears to be one of few games where weather won't come into play. Both teams desperate and still in race, and although that should lead to playoff intensity, I think it will lead to their superior units (offenses) not being stopped when it counts. Matchups look good Houston 7.8 yards per pass vs. Miami 23rd ranked pass D (236th in yards per pass at 7.6), and the Dolphins are especially susceptible to big plays down the field. Miami’s defense is frequently victimized by long plays, which is the specialty of Texans WR Andre Johnson and WR Steve Slaton. No surprise if we see a couple of 70ish-yard TD’s, which is Houston's specialty.
Dolphins can get to the QB, but only 7 teams have allowed fewer sacks than Texans. Dolphins 4th ranked rushing attack against Houston defense which allows 4.4 ypr. Houston defense has been made protected last couple weeks by weak opposing offenses that bogged down in red zone or played conservative with lead (Jax). Dolphins averaging 29 ppg and 385 yards at home this season. You don’t think of the Dolphins as an over team but as their offense suggests, they’re an offensive minded team at home. At home they’ve gone 5-1 to the over with the 5 overs careening over the total by 79 points. The Texans are an under team on the road, but they’ve had 3 road unders by 2 points or less, so most of their games have been right in the expected scoring range. They should be brought along into a high scoring game by the Dolphins, and they won’t exactly be kicking and screaming. Don’t be surprised if this game has a lot of fireworks. Go over the total.

Jaguars @Patriots under 431⁄2 Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
This total seems pretty high considering the way this game is likely to be played. The Patriots are doing everything they can to protect the banged up Tom Brady (shoulder, finger, and most importantly), ribs. The Pats just need to win one of their last two provided neither the Jets nor Dolphins sweep. The goal is to keep Brady healthy and give him a couple of weeks before they host a game in the Wild Card round. Brady threw only 23 passes on Sunday. His last three games have seen him attempt his lowest, second lowest, and tied for third lowest number of passes on the season. Fred Taylor was supposedly very close to being back last Sunday and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play in this one. Laurence Maroney is running pretty well and has Belichick’s confidence right now. They meet once a week to watch film of every play Maroney is involved in and Belichick appears to appreciate the RB’s willingness to improve. Hard to see this being anything other than run, run, run some more.
You know the M.O. of Jack del Rio, and it isn’t “air it out”. Sure, they got caught up in a shootout on Thursday night, but in 6 of their previous 7 games they threw the ball 30 times or less. The Jags prefer to run the ball. And if you had Maurice Jones-Drew, you probably would too. All this running by both teams will keep the clock moving, limiting the number of plays, which is critical when attempting to keep a game under the total.

These teams have both played a lot of unders as well. Prior to their shootout with the Colts, the Jags had seen 6 of their previous 7 games go under the total, including 4 in a row. In those 4 games, only once did either team score more than 18 points, and 3 of the 4 games saw 33, 23, 41, and 24 points scored. The Jags are an under team right now. With their commitment to keeping Brady on the field and off the injury list, New England has played 5 unders in a row, and of the overs, one was by 11⁄2 points and another by 3 points. For all the talk of their defensive weaknesses, this isn’t your 2007 or even 2008 New England Patriots. Surprisingly, all bets are off if it comes up snowy in Foxborough on Sunday. The Patriots play in bizarrely high scoring home games in the snow, and against Tennessee this year and against Arizona last year they eclipsed the full game total all by themselves in the first half of play. Clearly Belichick trusts his offense in those kind of conditions and realizes that the slippery conditions harm the footing of the defensive backs more than anyone else. But assuming good weather we’ll look for this game to be lower scoring than folks expect. Let’s go under the total here.

@49ers (-12) over Lions Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Just because the Niners were knocked out of NFC playoff contention in their 27-13 loss to Philadelphia last week doesn't mean they will start coasting. Coasting when Mike Singletary is your coach is just not an option. Only three times in Mad Mike's tenure of 23 games has Frisco lost a game by more than 7 points. Fear of Mike's wrath will keeps players motivated and they will want to atone for a 2 TD defeat. Frisco covered the next game after both of their first two 8+ point losses under Singletary. And Frisco still has something to play for. With 6 wins and a winnable matchup against the Rams next week a 0.500 final record is a very realistic possibility.
This is a rare selection where the bulk of the tech material is on the other side. The total number of systems favoring Detroit is five, while the Niners have just three tabbing them. My stat model however likes Frisco by 17, and there is ample reason to believe the number should be higher. We won't learn the details of Detroit's QB rotation until later in the week, but it’s highly unlikely that Matt Stafford will play. Right now it looks like Daunte Culpepper will get the start with a short leash. Drew Stanton started the 2nd half Sunday against Arizona and it wouldn't surprise me to see that happen again.
The Lions are 0-10 when Culpepper starts, and have scored just 3 points this season when he is on the field. Even if Stanton were as good as Stafford the drop in performance to Culpepper's level for just two quarters is probably worth a point. To add injury to insult, CB Philip Buchanon may miss the game with a sprained left shoulder. As bad as the Lions' corners are, they have played respectably in a couple of games in recent weeks and Buchanon is the main reason. My stat model only covers run and pass numbers, not special teams. Detroit might have the worst special teams in the league. Last Sunday's miscues included a shanked punt, yet another missed field goal, one fumbled punt return and another one mishandled. The punt return problems are indicative of Detroit's personnel problems. WR Dennis Northcutt was responsible for the fumble. He is dealing with a groin injury that limits for the fumble. He is dealing with a groin injury that limits his lateral mobility. You'd think a guy with that ailment wouldn't be fielding kicks of any kind, but the coaches don't trust anybody else to catch them. Except for Philip Buchanon. That is how he injured his shoulder. Add injury and special teams adjustments to the stat model and I can make an argument for SF -20. Even with a Lions edge in the tech material the home side is the way to play.San Francisco by 18.

@Redskins (+7) over Cowboys Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The whole world watched the Cowboys roll on Saturday night in New Orleans. It was an impressive rampage over the previously unbeaten Saints. The whole world then watched the Redskins get rolled by the Giants on Saturday night. It was truly a putrid performance in our nation’s capital. And if Jim Zorn had even a sliver of a chance of being retained by Bruce Allen, which he probably didn’t, that’s gone now. After the game Albert Haynesworth threw Zorn under the bus, saying that the players weren’t that bad, and they needed “new direction”.
But with the entire roster being evaluated by the brass, we’re willing to wipe the slate clean and forgive Monday night’s game. Before Monday night there had actually been a lot of positives with the Redskins, as the players and coaches had shown a lot of professionalism in the wake of a trying situation. The ‘skins had covered their last five games before the MNF debacle, and in 10 of their previous 13 games had either outgained their opponent or had been within 8 yards of their opponent when the yardage totals were tallied. We’ll look for that competitiveness and competence to return in this one. And there’s really a fine line to being competent and awful in the NFL. It was third down conversions on Monday night. The Giants converted at least their first 7 on their way to a sterling 11-15 in third down efficiency. A lot of themwere3rd and5or3rd and6thatmadeitbyayardor so. Like most games, it was a play here and a play there away from being a solid, but non-humiliating loss.
I simply don’t trust the Cowboys in prosperity. They took advantage of a lot of weaknesses that the Saints had shown heading into Saturday night’s game (lucky wins at Washington and Atlanta) and they played what was clearly their game of the year. This is a team that time and time again has not been able to string strong performances together. In fact, since their opening day win in Tampa they’ve been a road favorite 4 times. They’ve lost all 4 of those games outright. I don’t trust Wade Phillips, Tony Romo, and this defense to put together consistently good performances and will look to take a TD against a team that had failed to cover 4 of 5 heading into the New Orleans win.
The Redskins are 0-4 straight up and against the spread to the Giants the past two years. Looking back, a case could be made that they simply match up poorly to the New Yorkers. But they’ve done OK against Dallas, losing by no more than 5 in the last 6 games in the series. This was a very, very competitive game last month in Arlington, and this line figured to be 41⁄2 or so before last weekend. Now we get nearly an extra FG as everyone overreacts to a good week by Dallas and a bad week by Washington. With every square in the world looking to lay the lumber on Dallas, we’ll look for these clubs to revert to the norm in a competitive game. Cowboys by only 1.