5-Star – Tampa Bay +14’ over NEW ORLEANS — The Saints have always had trouble when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. They were 0-11 ATS in this situation coming into this season and now, after failing to cover at home vs Carolina and Atlanta, they are 0-13 ATS when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. This situation is easilty accessed with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) with:
team=Saints and H and DIV and WP>o:WP and 20001224<=date
In addition, the Saints are 0-10 ATS (-7.1 ppg) as a 6+ favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Last week, the Saints suffered their first loss of the season to the Cowboys. The loss was coming, as the Saints’ level of play has dropped precipitously over their previous few games. New Orleans was domi- nated by the Cowboys, who had 36:26 of possession time and rushed for 145 yards. It was the Saints lowest possession time of the season by more thren three minutes.
The situation in which the Saints are in has been a losing play for many seasons now. NFL teams are 0-8 ATS (-9.5 ppg) as a home 7+ favorite the week after they had at least three fewer minutes of posses- sion time than their season-to-date average as a home favorite. Also, the league is 0-11 ATS (-13.5 ppg) as a 7+ favorite the week after at home as a TD+ favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Bucs are off a great road game and teams on the road off a great road game have been terrific plays. Recently, NFL teams are a combined 13-0 ATS (+6.9 ppg) as a road 7+ dog after a straight up win on the road. Also, NFL teams are 16-0 ATS a a TD+dog when they are off a road game in which they allowed at least ten points fewer than their season-to-date average, as long as they did not lose that game by a field goal or more. The les- son is clear, don’t disrepect a big road dog that is off a godd defensive performance on the road.
The Buccaneers themselves are a perfect 8-0 ATS (15.3 ppg) as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent — wining seven of the eight straight up. Their only loss in this situation came this season, when the Dolphins kicked a field goal with 14 seconds left in the game to beat the Bucs 25-23 as a double-digit favorite.
Yes, the Saints beat the Bucs 38-7 as a double-digit favorite in Tampa earlier this season, but New Orleans is 0-5 ATS (-12.0 ppg) at home vs a team they beat as a 3+ road favorite earlier the same season. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: Tampa Bay 17 NEW ORLEANS 20

4-Star Carolina at NY Giants UNDER 43 — The Giants have gone over three straight, but all games were vs divisional opponent in games that had a line very close to pick. Here, they are a significant favorite and we expect them to play a bit more conservatively on of- fense. The Panthers, of course, should feature their rushing game to keep the ball out of the hands of the red-hot Eli Manning.
The Panthers upset the Vikings last Sunday Night using patience and a very tough defense. Carolina stayed close to the Vikings for the first three quarters and then outscored them 20-0 in the fourth quarter to win 26-7. The Panthers punted seven times and forced the Vikings to punt eight times. We expect them to adopt the same conservative strategy against the Giants.
The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-6.9 ppg) as a dog the week after a win in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters and 0-9 OU after a game in which they scored at least 7 points MORE than expected and allowed at least seven points FEWER than expected.
In addition, Carolina is 0-11 OU since the start of the 2002 season when they are off a game in which they punter at least seven times and trailed at the half. The Panthers have stayed under by an average of 11.2 ppg in this situation.
The fact that the Panthers are a big dog here and they were a dog last week points to the UNDER. Carolina is 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) as a dog of more than six points when they were a dog last week. The SDQL for this situation is:
team=Panthers and line>6 and p and NB and 20020929<=date
Note that this trend was active last week when the Panthers were a big dog against the Vikings. That game, of course, stayed under the total.
Lastly, for the Panthers, we expect a strong defensive effort because of their large time of possession last week. Carolina is 0-7 OU (-10.9 ppg) as a dog the week after they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average as a TD+ dog.
Turning our attention to the Giants, we recall that they are a TD favorite over a non-divisional opponent after facing divisional op- ponents in each of the previous three weeks. The Giants’ offense has been really clicking, but this is an UNDER situation for the league. Teams that are not undefeated on the season are a combined 0-17 OU as a 7+ point home favorite over a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, as long as they had at 35+ first downs combined in those two games vs divisional foes. Let’s take these two UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 Carolina 17