Kentucky over Clemson by 3
Okay, after we’ve just finished extolling the postseason virtues of the ACC, it’s time to sock ‘em in the gut. And what better representative to attack than the notoriously underachieving Clemson Tigers? Clemmie finally won its first berth in the conference championship game since the league was realigned in 2005 and, of course, they lost to Georgia Tech. In their last 10 bowl appearances, the Tigers have managed just three wins and only one of those came against a quality opponent, Tennessee. Now, after blowing its shot at this year’s Orange Bowl, Clemson must drag itself back to gloomy Nashville for a ‘rematch’ with Kentucky, the same team that whipped them 28-20 as a 10- point underdog in the 2005 Music City Bowl. While the cats from upstate South Carolina have had their share of late-season woes, the bluegrass cats from Lexington are gunning for their fourth straight bowl victory. Kentucky’s expectations increased recently when QB Mike Hartline returned to practice for the first time since injuring his left knee on October 10. Without Hartline, UK’s passing game had gone south: replacement Morgan Newton threw for just 608 yards in seven starts and frustrated head coach Rich Brooks implemented the ‘Wild-Cobb’ formation where WR Randall Cobb lined up as a RB to take the snap from center. And even though the trickery was good enough for an average of 6.4 yards per carry, Brooks will certainly look forward to Cobb stretching the Clemson defense from his natural wideout spot (37 catches for 427 yards) if Hartline can go at QB. Outstanding Tiger RB/KR C.J. Spiller will be Kentucky’s main concern: not only does the ACC’s all-time all-purpose yardage leader break big plays in both the running and passing game, he also ranks fourth in the country in kickoff returns with a hefty 34 yard average. Our database came up with slim pickings on this matchup but the advantage lies with the Wildcats. SEC bowl dogs off a loss of 15 or less points are 20-5 ATS and HC Brooks is 3-0 SU as a bowler with UK (two wins SU as a dog). Meanwhile, bowl favorites off back-to-back losses, including a Conference Championship loss, are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Kentucky also owns a major edge with the familiarity of the surroundings since this will be its third trip to the Music City Bowl in four years. And most important, there’s always a chance that UK superfan Ashley Judd will show up for a little face time on the Jumbotron. Regardless, we honestly expect Dabo Swinney’s troops to show up flat as a pancake, not what you want to see on the menu when laying a touchdown. This cat fight goes to the blue bloods.
3* BEST BET
Buffalo over ATLANTA by 3
Thanks to the return of QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Falcons stayed alive with a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Jets in New York last week. Today they change roles from 6-point dogs to 8-point favorites in another got-to-have game and we’re right there to fade them. For openers, the Dirty Birds have been a mess ‘In The Stats,’ going 2-8 ITS their last 10 games – with the two stat wins by one and 20 yards. They are also riding a 0-11 ATS streak as favorites of eight or more points in games off a SU and ATS win. In addition, Atlanta checks in with a 2-15 ATS mark off an upset win when they own a win percentage of .400 or greater and are facing a non-division opponent off a loss. The Bills take the field having just held the Patriots to a season-low 224 yards last week and have not allowed 20 points in any contest since interim coach Perry Fewell assumed the reins five games ago. FYI: the Falcons are 2-25 ATS as favorites of five or more points in games in which they score less than 24 points. Look for another 7-7 ‘must-win’ favorite to eat the bullet when Buffie improves to 16-3 ATS in post-Pats performances. Bang... you’re dead.
4* BEST BET
Jacksonville over NEW ENGLAND by 4
The Pats eked out a 7-point win and cover against the Bills last week. The good news is that they have now surrendered 10 points in each of their last two games and they close out the campaign against a pair of teams currently resting on the 7-7 perch. Holding a two-game lead atop the AFC East Division, New England can now focus on the playoffs. The Jaguars suffered a bitter loss last Thursday to the Colts and are now swimming in shark-infested waters with seven other blood-seeking playoff hopefuls. That’s a good thing as 7-7 dogs are 24-10-2 ATS off a win or loss of seven or less points. Jacksonville is also 14-7 SU and 17-4 ATS on the road with revenge (lost here in 2007 playoffs), including 9-0 ATS the last nine. Oh yeah... that deal about the Pats allowing 10 or less points. It works against them here as New England is just 1-7-1 ATS in Foxborough after surrendering 10 or less points. We’re all jacked up about the Jags’ prospects today.
5* BEST BET
Baltimore over PITTSBURGH by 11
The Steelers are a miracle play away from arriving into the fray on a 6-game losing skid. They are also riding a 5-game spread- losing skein as favorites. And to make matters worse, they find themselves favored at 7-7 on the season against a division rival. Not a good thing, according to our powerful database, as these teams are 8-28-2 ATS, including 1-11-1 ATS if they allowed 27 or more points in their last game. Just as bad, defending Super Bowl champions playing at home with a .500 record are 1-11 ATS since 1996. Invading the Ketchup Bottle this week are the Ravens, off back-to-back wins in which they outscored those opponents to the tune of 79-10, managing to hold both foes to 2nd-low yardage marks. Baltimore’s 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS mark under John Harbaugh in games off a win against opponents off a spread loss clinches it. Back the better team, playing the better ball, as the skid marks continue.
Marc Lawrence Playbook Newsletter 12/27
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