Much will be made about USC’s potential lack of motivation for this contest, as the Trojans have been playing in premier bowl games each of the past seven years. Yet playing in their home state with a superior coach and motivator should be enough intangibles for the Trojans to roll. Once the players hit the field, USC will prove their class over what I feel is a much weaker Boston College outfit. USC has faced the superior schedule and offensive and defensive units. While the Trojans’ offense was lackluster at times, they still ran the ball for over 5.0 ypc. Boston College’s defense was solid for much of the year and that could technically keep them within striking distance,however,the offense is going to struggle against USC’s superior speed and strength. Boston College turned the ball over 24 times against less skilled and tal- ented teams and failed to score 20 points in any road contest this season.They also were gashed against their only two quality road opponents; at Clemson and Virginia Tech.The Eagles may be excited to face such a prestigious program but we see this matchup favoring USC across the board and a double-digit victory a likely result.
A large factor in lower tier bowl games is motivation and I got a sense that the Tar Heels are the more motivated team in this matchup. Pitt senior defensive line- man Gus Mustakas told the Post-Gazette, “It almost feels like throwing a season away. You go so far and your goal is to win the Big East championship and you come so close -- it really hurts, bad.” While Tar Heel coach Butch Davis had these comments, “Our players are excited to continue their season and play so close to home.” The bread and butter of Pitt’s offense is the strong running game led by freshman Dion Lewis, who ran for 1,640 yards to finish third in the country. The Tar Heels will counter with a defense that allowed only 93 yards a game to oppos- ing rushers, good for ninth best in the country. UNC struggled with its run game but have been more productive over the second half of the season despite the loss of Shaun Draughn to a shoulder injury. They averaged 170 ypg on the ground and put up 28 ppg in their last seven games. In what is basically a home game for a team playing its best football late in the season, North Carolina gets the nod.
The Ohio Bobcats are getting plenty of respect in the marketplace despite playing a much weaker schedule than their opponent. Ohio’s defense was opportunistic and forced a bunch of turnovers this year but their overall numbers were mediocre. They finished in the middle of the pack in total yardage allowed in a down year of- fensively for the MAC. This is a team that was outgained in three of their final four games. While Marshall’s offense isn’t exactly explosive I think they have the type of mentality and strong ground game to excel in this matchup. The big boost of get- ting star RB Darius Marshall back on the field is going to pay great dividends. Mar- shall led the team in rushing this season (5.1 ypc) and topped 1,000 yards despite missing the final two games. We also get a little motivational boost with Marshall naming former WVU and Florida assistant “Doc” Holliday as its new head coach. No doubt his players will be looking to impress rather than treating this as just a vacation. Finally, fading MAC teams in bowl games has proven a sound strat- egy over the last few years with horrific marks of 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS since 2006.
Sports Memo Newsletter 12/26
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