Al DeMarco
Friday's Play
5 Dime - Tennessee Titans

In San Diego’s favor tonight are two overwhelming streaks: 17 consecutive straight-up wins in the month of December and an in-season winning streak of nine in a row. But the number that concerns me the most is the fact this is the Chargers’ third road game in four weeks. That’s a tough enough situation to overcome, but when you factor in the short week plus this game being played on Christmas night, I think this is the spot where the two big winning streaks come to an end for the Bolts.

Not denying San Diego any props, but you can’t overlook what Tennessee has done since Vince Young took over at quarterback: a 7-1 SU and ATS record. And the offense has perked up to the tune of 29.5 points per game with Young at the helm.

Young, of course, hasn’t been doing it all alone; Chris Johnson has reeled off nine straight 100+ yard games, raising his season total to 1730 with two games to play. He might be even more important than Young in this contest. If Johnson has a big game that means the Titans are in control of the game clock, leaving San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers less time to work his magic on the field.

Keep in mind San Diego is 21st in the league when it comes to stopping the run, allowing opposing backs to average 4.4 yards per carry.

While San Diego has the difficult task of being on the road once more, the Titans are spending the holidays at home with family and friends, preparing for their third straight home game in the process. That’s just another reason why I believe the travel catches up to San Diego, in addition to back-to-back physical big games with the Cowboys and Bengals, allowing Tennessee to post a surprisingly easy seven-point victory.


Strategy:

This line has been -3 all week long. You’ve got to buy the half-point down at -3 or even if the line moves up to -3 ½ or -4. And although I highly doubt it soars to 4 ½, you would buy down the hook in that case as well.