Which team is playing the best football right now in the NFL? To me, there are just a few teams in consideration: San Diego, Philadelphia, or Indianapolis. One of these teams is an underdog this week, the Chargers, to a 7-7 Tennessee team. Sure the Titans are playing better football and have rallied since their 0-6 start, but this looks like one of those cases where the must-win team may be in over its head and oddsmakers are putting too much stock into the playoff scenarios. If you read this week’s feature NFL piece, you’ll see I reference something called Theoretical Line Value, which takes the teams’ points per game scored and allowed and creates a line based upon it, with 3.5 points built-in for home-field advantage. In this case, San Diego should be favored by a point. The Chargers are rolling in all facets of the game and have beaten Tennessee five straight times. Look for No. 6 here.
Play: San Diego +3
12/25/2009
(501) MIAMI at (502) NEW YORK
If I’ve learned anything about the NBA and its high-profile national TV games, it’s to take the team with the star player in any game be- tween a club with one against another without a marquee player. Didn’t former ref Tim Donaghy say something like this a few weeks ago on “60 Minutes”? As much as New York has improved lately, I simply can’t overlook the presence of Dwyane Wade here. He is ca- pable of taking over this game, and figures to be motivated to do so in this holiday setting. The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 98-98 tie in this one, and I think that could be too low of a count for the Heat considering the Knicks allow opponents to score 105.8 PPG and shoot 50 percent from the floor at the Garden. Miami has a big defensive edge. Look for a small upset.
Play: Miami +2.5
(503) BOSTON at (504) ORLANDO
Orlando seems to be going through the motions lately, and I suspect there is still some internal strife regarding the offseason addition of Vince Carter. Despite their record (20-7 at press time), you can just see that something is amiss with the Magic, and it doesn’t take anything more than looking how far center Dwight Howard’s numbers have tumbled with Carter in the lineup. They were better when Howard was the focus. In any case, they face a tough Christ- mas matchup against the league’s best road team, the Celtics, who will be backed by a significant StatFox System: Play On—All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON)—excellent shooting team (>=47.5 percent) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5 per- cent). (101-58 since 1996.) (63.5 percent, +37.2 units. Rating = 2*). Getting back to Carter, when were the Magic ever an “average defensive team” prior to his arrival? Point made. Celtics get revenge for the Orlando win in Boston last month.
Play: Boston +2.5
(509) DENVER at (510) PORTLAND
Now that I’ve picked two road upsets for Friday’s Christmas NBA ac- tion, I need a solid home team to back, and while the Lakers were close, I have to think that the host with the best chance of getting it done is Portland, which figures to be a small favorite. Can you think of any scheduling situation less comfortable than traveling for the late-night game in Portland? Denver has to spend the whole holi- day away and then take on a team that does solid work at home: PORTLAND is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams—making >=46 percent of their shots over the last three seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 102.3, OPPONENT 96.5—(Rating = 1*). At the same time, Denver struggles on the road versus quality foes: Karl is 25-39 ATS (-17.9 Units) in road games versus good teams—outscoring their opponents by three- plus points/game as the coach of DENVER. The average score was DENVER 97.9, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 2*). The Blazers are get- ting back in stride. They win comfortably here.
Statfox Platinum Sheet 12/25
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