I'm not shilling for this Capper, just stating the facts.
Another winner on Utah last night, 15-4 CFB Run, & 3-1 on Bowl Games (Keeping Track)
Alex Smart
SMU: +13.5 / 4 units
Always love taking the points in this Hawaii Bowl as it’s been one of the more exciting high scoring games the bowl season has offered up for quite some time. In just the second year at the helm, HC June Jones turned a 1-11 Mustangs outfit into a 7-5 squad that’s punched its ticket to the second season for the first time since 1984. Fittingly, the last venue SMU went bowling to was Aloha Stadium to take on the Notre Dame fighting Irish whom they defeated 27-20 as 1.5-point underdogs.
Now, this overlooked bunch is getting a heaping handful of points against a Nevada squad that will be without two of its best offensive players. Both RBs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott won’t be able to suit up for this one due to eligibility concerns and a foot injury. That takes away two major components of HC Chris Ault’s “Pistol Offense”. The loss of Taua can’t be overlooked. He and QB Colin Kaepernick formed quite the duo out of the backfield that allowed their seldom used passing attack go off in many spots this season. Taua rushed for 160 yards against Boise State and was one of the main reasons Nevada wasn’t blown off the “Smurf Turf”. With him gone, a major bullet will be missing from this pistol attack.
SMU didn’t get much pub this season, but HC Jones has pulled a miraculous turnaround in Dallas. SMU went a combined 2-22 SU from 2007-08, but picked up some solid wins this year to allow the Mustangs to lace up their bowling shoes. I believe QB Kyle Padron will have a big game throwing the ball against the Wolf Pack’s 119th ranked pass “D” that allowed a shade fewer than 285 passing YPG this season. With NEV’s rush attack limited, this is just too much chalk for the Wolf Pack to have to eat in this spot. If both teams were at full strength, I’d be all in on the over in this spot, but I’m really wary of the effect Taua’s absence will have on NEV’s offense. Instead, I’m backing June Jones who returns to the island to play in front of the faithful that blessed his every step throughout his stay as Hawaii’s head football coach. CUSA teams are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS the L/8 times they faced a WAC opponent in a bowl, while double-digit WAC teams failed to cover the chalk 5 of the L/6 times with Fresno State already losing outright this bowl season to Wyoming as 10+ point favorites. Back Jones and the upstart Mustangs who are thrilled to finally go bowling once again!