In just his second year at Southern Methodist, coach June Jones has the Mustangs back in a bowl game for the first time in 25 years, and they’ll face the country’s top rushing team in Nevada at Aloha Stadium.
SMU won four of its final five games (2-3 ATS) and finished tied with Houston atop the Conference USA West Division. The Mustangs concluded the regular season with a 26-21 home win over Tulane, coming up well short as a 19½-point favorite. The underdog covered 10 of SMU’s 11 lined contests this year, including the last five in a row. The only exception was the Mustangs’ 38-15 loss at Houston as a 16-point underdog, a result that kept SMU from playing in the Conference USA championship game.
Nevada had an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) snapped in a 44-33 loss at unbeaten Boise State on Nov. 27, a game that decided the Western Athletic Conference champion. But the Wolf Pack got a late score to cash as an 11½-point underdog, their fourth straight spread-cover. Nevada scored at least 31 points in each of its final nine games, tallying more than 50 five times and more than 60 four times. Prior to the Boise State contest, the favorite had gone 8-3 ATS in the Pack’s first 11 outings.
The Wolf Pack boast the country’s No. 1 rushing attack at 362.3 yards per game, and they became the first time in NCAA history to have three players rush for more than 1,000 yards, with Vai Taua leading the way with 1,345 yards (10 TDs), followed by QB Colin Kaepernick (1,160 yards, 16 rushing TDs) and Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards, 9 TDs). However, Taua (ineligible) and Lippincott (injury) have been ruled out for this game.
SMU hasn’t been in a bowl game since 1984 when it beat Notre Dame, but a year later the Mustangs were on probation for recruiting violations and three years later the NCAA shut down the program for continued violations. The Mustangs, who went 1-11 in Jones’ first year in 2008, enjoyed the single biggest turnaround in Division I-A this year.
Nevada fell 42-35 to Maryland in last year’s Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho, getting upset as a 2½-point favorite. The Wolf Pack are making their fifth straight postseason appearance, but the only win during this run came back in 2005 when they beat Central Florida 49-48 in this Hawaii Bowl, failing to cover as a 3½-point favorite.
These teams haven’t met since they were WAC rivals earlier this decade. In the most recent clash in 2004, SMU beat Nevada 38-20 as a five-point home ‘dog after losing the previous three seasons (1-2 ATS).
In addition to being the nation’s most prolific rushing team, the Wolf Pack rank second in the country with 521.6 total yards per game and fifth in scoring at 40.6 points per contest. Defensively, Nevada surrenders 27.2 points and 399.6 total yards per game, but just 115.3 rushing ypg.
The Mustangs averaged 30 points and 394.4 total yards per contest over their final five games. They are led by RB Shawnbrey McNeal, who ran for 1,125 yards and nine TDs, and WR Emmanuel Sanders who holds the school record for catches in a season (91) and receiving yards (1,215). The problem has been SMU’s defense, which is allowing 29.1 points and 404 yards per game (169.2 rushing ypg). The Mustangs yielded 30-plus points in seven of their 11 Division I-A games.
The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams, however they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Nevada is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference contests, but otherwise it is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 14-3 as a favorite of more than 10 points.
SMU has topped the total in 16 of its last 21 after a straight-up win and five of six against WAC schools, but the under for the Mustangs is on runs of 7-3-1 as an underdog and 15-5-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points. The Wolf Pack are on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall and 7-3 after a spread-cover.
The Sports Advisors 12/24
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