These two were WAC rivals from ‘00-’04 and UN holds a 3-2 SU edge (2-3 ATS) in the series. SMU is making its 1st bowl appearance S/’84, which ended the 4th longest drought in the NCAA. Ironically, their last bowl trip was also to Hawaii, as they beat ND 27-20 (+1’) in the Aloha Bowl. SMU also posted the largest turnaround in the NCAA, going from 1-11 in HC Jones’ 1st ssn to 7-5 TY. This is a homecoming for Jones as he coached at Hawaii from ‘99-’07. He led UH to 6 bowls, incl the ‘07 Sugar. He has a 4-2 (3-3 ATS) career record in bowls. UN is no stranger to Aloha Stadium as it plays here every other yr vs Hawaii and was last here in ‘08. UN is making its 5th consec bowl appearance and is 3-6 SU (1-4 ATS) in all-time bowl gms (1-5 SU, 1-3 ATS under HC Ault). The ‘09 ssn was a historical one for UN. On Oct 9th, Ault posted his 200th career victory to become just the 6th active coach in FBS to reach that mark. UN became the 1st tm in NCAA hist to feature 3 players with 1,000 yds rush in 1 ssn. UN is playing its best ball of the ssn winning 8 of its L/9 SU while also covering 7 of the L/9 (incl L/4). UN is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS vs bowl-elig tms outscoring them 35-34 and outgaining them 480-445. SMU played 5 bowls tms and went just 1-4 SU, but was 4-1 ATS. They were outscored 34-25 and outgained 409-324. UN features 7 Sr’s among their 14 upperclass starters, while the Ponies have 6 Sr’s out of just 11 upperclassmen starters. UN went 3-3 ATS on the road, but was 2-0 as a DD fav. SMU went 4-2 ATS away from home and pulled 2 outright upsets as a DD dog.
After stumbling out of the gate with an 0-3 start avg just 364 ypg and 180 ypg rush (5.1), UN’s off simply exploded from Oct on. Beginning with a 773 yd outburst vs UNLV (incl 559 rush), UN went on to avg 574 ypg and an astounding 423 rush ypg (8.1) the last 9 gms while avg nearly 5 rush TD per gm en route to becoming the NCAA’s #1 rush off. Ault, the mastermind behind the “Pistol” off, developed the formation several yrs ago to generate more of a run gm out of an off still designed to pass the ball. The key component of this off and its effectiveness is the outstanding run-blocking of the OL (aka “The Union”) and QB Kaepernick with his dual-threat ability and steady decision making. The Union (6’5” 300 avg) has opened gaping holes for the backfield to run through (362 ypg, 7.6). Kaepernick and RB’s Taua and Lippincott (out for bowl) each avg 7.7+ ypc and all 3 eclipsed the 1,000 yd plateau making NCAA history. WR Wimberly leads the tm in rec and earned WAC FOY honors. Defensively, UN features the WAC’s top DE combo in Moch (WAC DPY) and Basped. The duo comb for 30 tfl TY and UN entered ‘09 as the only tm in the country to ret 2 plyrs who recorded DD sk totals from ‘08 (Moch 11.5, Basped 10.5). UN’s DL also meshes well with one of the top LB units in the WAC in Bethea, Marshall and Johnson (#2, 3 and 4 on tm) and has been stout vs the run limiting tms to 3.7 ypc. It’s been the Pack’s inability to stop foes through the air (284 ypg, 60%, 31-8 ratio) that has been the defense’s sore spot this year (#110 in the our pass D). UN’s PK is somewhat untested as Drake has the fewest FG att in the nation (8). P Langley avg 40.6 yards per punt (37.1 net) with 14 landing inside the 20.
The Mustangs’ Run n’ Shoot offense was more balanced in the 2nd yr of the system as they avg 380 ypg, with a surprising 113 ypg (3.8) coming on the ground and is our #82 off. That is a huge improvement after the Mustangs avg’d just 41 rush yds (2.3) LY. Miami, FL trans RB McNeal became HC Jones’ 1st 1,000 yd rusher. It will be interesting to see who lineups under center as LY’s starter Mitchell DNP QB the L/5 (shldr). He may be 100% by this game, but True Fr Padron could get the call. He started the 5 gms in Mitchell’s absence and avg 244 ypg (64.4%) with a 8-4 ratio on the yr. WR Sanders is SMU’s all-time leading receiver. He has twice as many catches TY as the #2 option. The Mustangs OL avg 6’3” 292 and features 4 Soph starters. They led they way for 3.8 ypc and allowed 34 sks (7.9%). The D improved from LY, but still rank #92 all’g 404 ypg (169 rush) and 29 ppg. The DL in SMU’s 3-4 avg 6’3” 281 and accounted for 10.5 of the team’s 20 sks and all’d 4.4 ypc. LB Kennemer led with 126 tkls. The secondary led by Sr Dennis (4 int) is #38 in our pass D rankings, all’g 235 ypg (56%) with a 19-16 ratio. The Ponies have our #96 ST’s, but PR Sanders (15.4 avg) had a PR TD (79 yds).
While it’s difficult to go against this potent Wolf Pack offense, SMU has not only given us a 5H LPS Winner but the dog in Mustang games is now 11-1 ATS. Nevada struggles vs passing teams and SMU has a trio of WR’s that can play with anyone. With the great turnaround (largest in the NCAA TY), SMU will be excited and focused being in a bowl their HC has lobbied for the past month.
Northcoast Powersweep 12/24
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