Ferringo 12/23
1-Unit Play. Take #723 Long Beach State (+24) over Kentucky (1 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
Would you believe that Long Beach State is the going to be the third highest-rated team that the Wildcats have played this year? This is a little bit of a letdown spot for the Wildcats. They were so up for getting their 2,000th win and they really couldn’t have played any better in that game. Now they come back a couple days later, with everyone telling them in that time how great they are, and have to play an afternoon game against some random team from the Big West. This is a young Wildcats team and I don’t expect them to take this game seriously. I think LBSU compares favorably to teams like Morehead State, Sam Houston, Rider, Cleveland State, Indiana, and Austin Peay. UK won those games by 16, 10, 29, 24, 17, and 21. So you can see that Kentucky is obviously capable of putting a 25-point beating on someone. I just don’t know if it’s likely. Drexel is a team that can’t shoot, can’t score. They are awful offensively and that’s why that game got out of hand. But other than that and a blowout over UNC-Asheville (ranked No. 340 out of 347 teams) Kentucky has been satisfied with earning 15-21-point wins. Long Beach has played Top 50 teams like West Virginia (-23), Clemson (-8), Texas (-33) and Utah State (+13) so far this year and last year they were a covering machine against teams like BYU (-10) and Wisconsin (-7) and lost at Syracuse by 24. They can shoot and score and shouldn’t just throw up all over themselves today and could hang within this number.
1-Unit Play. Take #758 Northeastern (-6.5) over Western Michigan (3 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
Just going to keep plugging away here with two teams that burned us yesterday. Northeastern was down five points with less than two minutes left yet somehow lost by 11 to St. Mary’s. Western Michigan’s only decent player, David Kook, shot just 4-for-15 but USC couldn’t hit anything from anywhere while only winning by four. Just trash on both ends. Northeastern is the better team and they have played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. They need a win. Desperately. They are much, much better than their record suggests and I think that they can get the job done today. I just don’t think that they will lose this game.
1-Unit Play. Take #776 BYU (-7) over Nebraska (10:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
BYU scored 110 points last night. That tells me that they are stroking it. And when BYU is hitting shots then they can play with anyone in the country. I am still utterly convinced that Nebraska sucks. I like this Cougars team and I think that they will continue their strong play against a BCS foe. Nebraska managed to sneak by an overrated Tulsa team. But I don't think that they will be able to force BYU into a grinder and there is just too much talent and experience on this Cougars team.
1-Unit Play. Take #763 SMU (-1.5) over Charleston (1 a.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
SMU is a team that is not as poor as its record shows and to me they have a bunch of respectable wins. Charleston is a fish out of water in this spot. I don't think that they can adjust to the time difference and I don't think that they have enough bullets in their gun to get the job done. SMU has some soft, but talented big men and a couple of very experienced guards. I've been waiting for them to turn the corner. And while this won't be a monumental win it's a game that they should get as they build momentum for conference play.
1-Unit Play. Take #751 San Jose State (-1) over Santa Clara (10 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
I'm just continuing in my belief that SJSU is better than their record indicates and better than the respect, or lack of, that they are getting from oddsmakers. They have played a tricky schedule. And while it looks like they just got demolished at a very, very good Northern Colorado team they actually were in that game until about six minutes to play. I like the Spartans and I am deferring to my theory on relative conference strength here.
1-Unit Play. Take #741 Wyoming (+16) over Northern Iowa (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
I'm not saying that Northern Iowa can't beat people by 18 or 19 points at home. I am saying that they shouldn't be laying out this many points. Wyoming played tough at Tennessee and showed me a little something. With Afam Muojeke they will usually have the best player on the floor. And Northern Iowa won't be nearly as "up" for this game as they have been for some of the other marquee teams on the slate. Wyomings bigs can bang down low and negate some of the Panthers' advantage there. We are severely outgunned in the backcourt. But the reality is that these two teams are both pretty good mid-majors and I don't see enough separation here to justify this large of a line.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #727 Massachusetts (+13) over Boston College (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
The underdog is 7-2 ATS in this series. And as I pointed out earlier in the year, whenever these teams – Providence, Rhode Island, BC, Harvard, Northeastern, UMass, etc. – play each other (and they do every year) you always want to take the points. Boston College has had injuries and suspensions and all manner of issues this year so this team hasn’t played together very much. They are still a bit out of sync. And while I have no doubts that they will win this game I think that the Minutemen have enough to hang around. UMass leans on talented scorers Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley to get the job done and the pair averages about 34 points per game. They are fresh off an upset of Memphis, which tells me that they are at least capable of playing with second-tier, tournament-caliber teams. This team really lacks experience, but the uys that they do have that have been around were there to beat Kansas last Dec. So, again, I think that they can hang around in this big Rivalry game.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #721 Harvard (+13.5) over Georgetown (Noon, Wednesday, Dec. 23)
Last time we saw Harvard they were upsetting a decent Boston College team. Prior to that they gave Connecticut all it could handle on the road. So even though this team is coming off a two-week break for finals I think that they will still be fresh enough to play with the Hoyas. Harvard grades out in a similar range to Cornell. And if Cornell were catching this many points against the Hoyas I’d give it a shot. Harvard will not win this game. But I think that both teams play a deliberate enough style, and that Harvard has enough bodies underneath, that this one can stay a little rough around the edges and the points can hold up.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #733 Charlotte (+7.5) over Old Dominion (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
Either Charlotte is going to be good or they aren’t. That’s kind of the bottom line. They have wins at Hofstra and Louisville this year and those teams, while ranking much lower, are at least in the same weight class as ODU. A much worse Charlotte team lost by one point to the Monarchs last year. And while ODU is just really, really tough at home they have also lost most of the games that they have played against top competition (Missouri, Mississippi State, Richmond, Dayton) this year. Charlotte is not as good as those other teams and all of those games were on the road. But that’s where our spread comes into play. It is conceivable to me that Charlotte can win this game. They have been good and are only getting better as Anjuan Wilderness rounds into form and gets used to playing with this group. Shamari Spears is a stud and this team has plenty of size underneath to compliment that shooters that they have. I think that this game will be played in the high 60’s and low 70’s and I think that the size and defense of Charlotte can keep this one competitive. This is a good role for them (underdog) and while they may not be the more accomplished team they have the goods to hang around. ODU is 5-18 ATS after a win at the window and they are just 1-5 ATS in nonconference games. Niners make it a game and threaten revenge for last year’s loss.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #739 Mississippi (+11.5) over West Virginia (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23) These are 5-point teasers:
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #765 Canisius (-2) over New Orleans (5:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23) AND Take #758 Northeastern (-1.5) over Western Michigan (3 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #776 BYU (-2) over Nebraska (10:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23) AND Take #745 Fresno State (+11) over Oregon State (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #765 Canisius (-2) over New Orleans (5:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23) AND Take #776 BYU (-2) over Nebraska (10:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)
That's it for today.
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Originally Posted by chase1
