Missouri vs. Arkansas

The oddsmakers really messed up here. I use two sets of power ratings, and both sets have Missouri State as the stronger team with AT LEAST 165 teams between them! Arkansas has already lost to Louisville by 30 on a neutral court, and to Oklahoma by 20 on the road. And both sets of power ratings have this Missouri State club rated higher than UL and OU. Arkansas already owns home losses to the likes of Morgan State, East Tennessee State, and South Alabama all ranked WELL BELOW Missouri State. The Razorbacks do have a four-game winning streak, but they've been beating up on teams that, according to my rankings, are rated from 231st to 342nd out of 347 Division 1 teams.

This undefeated Missouri State team already owns an eight-point win over Tulsa, who my two sets of rankings have as the 19th and 23rd best team in Division 1. They're coming off a ten-point road win at St. Louis, which is a team I have ranked over 100 spots better than Arkansas. Missouri State has a slight height advantage and has proved to be the better rebounding team so far this season. They also are a MUCH better free-throw shooting team, hitting 73.8% compared to just 64.8% for Arkansas. Missouri State's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings are 49th and 62nd, respectively. That is much better than Arkansas, which ranks 158th and 256th in those key categories.

Bottom line: I've sliced and diced this game every which way, and I come up with a 10 to 14-point win for Missouri State. Getting them at a pick'em is a gift. Take Missouri State.