[Fireman]

Giants -2 (buy hook if at 2.5) = 25 Dimes




Another big winning day yesterday 3-1 +17 Dimes!!

The Giants' line was originally -3 when I posted on Friday, I still have it as at 25 Dime play if it's -3, if you can get the better line take the -2.


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Fireman's 25 Dime Releases = 9-2


2009 NFL Season = 43-25 +212.0 Dimes

[ouman101]

Thanks for the plays! Enjoying the picks

[CheeseWhiz]

Ok, this is outrageous. Just like yesterday when he said to "buy the hook for Sea from 6.5 down to 6", buying the hook from 2.5 to 2 is also just terrible. When you buy a 1/2 point you are giving up 9% of your profit on winners.. so you are giving up 9% equity roughly half the time (when u win) so essentially 4.5% equity when you buy a half point. You would need the pushrate for NYG by 2 to be over 4.5% for this to be a +EV 1/2 pt purchase, and it's not even close. You should ONLY be buying pt's on key numbers (i.e. 7.5 down to 7) if you are trying to do it profitably, this is just an example of a "service" telling you to buy the hook in every game so he can improve his record. If you by a 1/2 pt everygame and mark winners as even money payouts yuo could flip coins and be " a winner".

[birdman779]

um giants is a super square play save urself sum units and jump on the skins

[Fireman]

Ok, this is outrageous. Just like yesterday when he said to "buy the hook for Sea from 6.5 down to 6", buying the hook from 2.5 to 2 is also just terrible. When you buy a 1/2 point you are giving up 9% of your profit on winners.. so you are giving up 9% equity roughly half the time (when u win) so essentially 4.5% equity when you buy a half point. You would need the pushrate for NYG by 2 to be over 4.5% for this to be a +EV 1/2 pt purchase, and it's not even close. You should ONLY be buying pt's on key numbers (i.e. 7.5 down to 7) if you are trying to do it profitably, this is just an example of a "service" telling you to buy the hook in every game so he can improve his record. If you by a 1/2 pt everygame and mark winners as even money payouts yuo could flip coins and be " a winner".

Cheez, my philosophy is never ever get burned by the hook. If you don't want to buy the hook, don't buy the hook. I've been burned badly on -2.5, -6.5, -1.5, or any other non-key number you want. So my personal philosophy has always been to never get burned again. Plus if you win it doesn't cost me anything or lower my profit. All my pay services only charge you for the hook if you lose. Frankly if I lose $1,100 or $1,200 on a 10 dime play it doesn't make much of a difference to me. If you don't agree then take the game at -2.5. Trust me it has nothing to do with my record. I bet everything I post and I follow my units system, so it has nothing to do with my record it has to do with my money. Cheers and best of luck

[Fireman]

And cheese, last time these two played the score was 23-17, the line was -6.5 with my book (as you call it a non-key number). Guess what I pushed

[mvp123]

And cheese, last time these two played the score was 23-17, the line was -6.5 with my book (as you call it a non-key number). Guess what I pushed

well you keep buying the hook and your bankroll will get hooked in the longrun

as cheeze stated you only buy hook in certain situations

[bodio]

um giants is a super square play save urself sum units and jump on the skins

Not sure if I agree...Skins is the hot team, Giants have been struggling. I know the public is still on the Giants, but I think the square play are the Skins tonight. Giants is the wise play! GL

[alex81]

I think it's gonna be a great game! I can see why most people would be on Washington but at this price I can't go against the GMen. If NY wants to make the playoffs this is a must win.

[gambler121]

Fireman, I'm with you. Don't let the hook ever burn you!!!!

[CheeseWhiz]

Cheez, my philosophy is never ever get burned by the hook. If you don't want to buy the hook, don't buy the hook. I've been burned badly on -2.5, -6.5, -1.5, or any other non-key number you want. So my personal philosophy has always been to never get burned again. Plus if you win it doesn't cost me anything or lower my profit. All my pay services only charge you for the hook if you lose. Frankly if I lose $1,100 or $1,200 on a 10 dime play it doesn't make much of a difference to me. If you don't agree then take the game at -2.5. Trust me it has nothing to do with my record. I bet everything I post and I follow my units system, so it has nothing to do with my record it has to do with my money. Cheers and best of luck

Yes.. I realize you only have to "pay for the hook" when you win.. which is why you would need to push on Sea by 6 in that situation 4.5% (rather than 9%) as stated above (reread if you don't understand this).

The fact that you try to support your decision to buy the hook based on the outcome of their last matchup makes me question your credibilty even more. You are using a sample size of one.. rather than referencing the massive database of NFL games over the last 5, 10, 15 years, or even simply referring to the Push probabilities of SBR's HPC (not flawless but a good general guideline).

Buying the hook in these situations is just wrong anyway you look at it. Losing 9% on all your wins will far outweigh the times it pushes on those non-key numbers, but then again when you don't reduce you're units at all when you win after buying the hook.. you may as well do it everytime. Maybe I should post plays and recommend everyone buy 2 points every game and then count each win/loss equally. BOL.

[Fireman]

um giants is a super square play save urself sum units and jump on the skins

Yes.. I realize you only have to "pay for the hook" when you win.. which is why you would need to push on Sea by 6 in that situation 4.5% (rather than 9%) as stated above (reread if you don't understand this).

The fact that you try to support your decision to buy the hook based on the outcome of their last matchup makes me question your credibilty even more. You are using a sample size of one.. rather than referencing the massive database of NFL games over the last 5, 10, 15 years, or even simply referring to the Push probabilities of SBR's HPC (not flawless but a good general guideline).

Buying the hook in these situations is just wrong anyway you look at it. Losing 9% on all your wins will far outweigh the times it pushes on those non-key numbers, but then again when you don't reduce you're units at all when you win after buying the hook.. you may as well do it everytime. Maybe I should post plays and recommend everyone buy 2 points every game and then count each win/loss equally. BOL.

Cheese, obviously I'm not supporting it on one game. I was merely making an example. If you don't agree with my philosophy don't buy hooks. As for my credibility you can question it all you want. I've been doing this successfully for 13 years. My record and units speak for themselves. If you need more credibility follow me. I give my opinion and my advice. Like I said if you don't agree with it, don't buy the hook and take it at -2.5 or -3, like I mentioned I like it at both lines. Anyone who follows me knows I give what I bet, that's what I bet. BOL to all the follow.

[CheeseWhiz]

No.. I would not take it at 3 because that is a key number (on top of the fact i can line shop).. you do understand what key numbers and push probabilities are don't you? Based on everything you have said, I am pretty sure you don't. Your record is good (though skewed). I will reiterate what i said above. Maybe i should start giving out plays and telling people to buy 2 pt's a game and then count each win/loss equally.
Anyways, I don't think we are going to get anywhere because I am basing my opinion on historical data and mathmatical probability, and you are arguing based on a "philosophy" that you have not explained or supported. We will just agree to disagree. Obviously for the benefit of your "win loss record" you should continue to tell everyone to buy the hook, but for the benefit of your bankroll I would do some research on some of the things I have touched on. BOL.

[Fireman]

No.. I would not take it at 3 because that is a key number (on top of the fact i can line shop).. you do understand what key numbers and push probabilities are don't you? Based on everything you have said, I am pretty sure you don't. Your record is good (though skewed). I will reiterate what i said above. Maybe i should start giving out plays and telling people to buy 2 pt's a game and then count each win/loss equally. Anyways, I don't think we are going to get anywhere because I am basing my opinion on historical data and mathmatical probability, and you are arguing based on a "philosophy" that you have not explained or supported. We will just agree to disagree. Obviously for the benefit of your "win loss record" you should continue to tell everyone to buy the hook, but for the benefit of your bankroll I would do some research on some of the things I have touched on. BOL.

HAHAHA...well done cheese. Nothing is skewed my friend. Do the math, every unit I win or loss takes buying points into account. But tell me more about numbers, I'm a CFO during the day along with owning diceituponline. But please help me understand numbers....your points are so smart and over my head. Follow and you'll see. And trust me I understand everything you are saying. Like you said you have your philospohy, I have mine. Agree to disagree. Truce and good luck to you. I hope we all win my friend.

[Fireman]

um giants is a super square play save urself sum units and jump on the skins

Great call Birdman, I love super square plays!

Brings Week 15 to a close at 4-1 +42 Dimes



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2009 NFL Season = 44-25 +237.0 Dimes

[Thirsty P]

Fireman - keep them coming brother! Great weekend. I appreciate your capping and posting of your picks. You did me right this weekend. I hated that Seahawks pick when I saw, but took it. One sinking team and one rising team. Oh well. I hate a lot of the bets I place, but have realized that my opinion means crap. You keep them coming and we all can keep reaping the benefits. Good stuff!

I am assuming you are going to ride this streak straight to the Super Bowl! I hope so.

[birdman779]

good call fireman even though it was a square play the redskins just dont have any heart