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  1. 12-20-09 12:19 PM #1
    Machine Choice
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    Default I have an idea...need a statistician's input

    I have a goal to raise $3,500 to pay off a gambling debt. I have a starting bankroll of $620. Here is a simple plan that I think may allow me to reach my goal in less than 47 days without taking a huge risk.

    1. Each day, I will place one standard sides wager (-110) to WIN $100. If it wins, I am done for the day.

    2. If the wager loses, I will try to get the loss back on the same day by playing Roulette. I will place a $1 bet on red and keep playing (using the Martingale system) until I win $110 to recover my loss for the day. This equates to about 170 spins provided I don't bust first. Once I reach $110, I am done for the day and the cycle repeats on the next day.

    Knowing that I need to win 35 bets to reach my goal of $3,500 and realizing that I will probably lose half of my sides bets (but hopefully I will hit better than 50%), this means I will have to play Roulette about 17 times.

    Using the Martingale system in Roulette with a $1 wager, I can lose 9 spins in a row before my bankroll is completely gone. Also, the table limit is $500 per bet. The odds of losing 9 spins in a row betting on red in a double-zero roulette wheel is .11%. Of course it will eventually happen. But I am gambling that it will not happen to me BEFORE I play roughly 17 sessions at about 170 spins per session (to account for house adavange of 5.06%). If it doesn't, then it is a mathematical certainty that I will reach my goal of $3,500 within 47 days even if lose half of my $110 sports bets.

    The question: what is the probability of losing 9 times in a row on red in American roulette BEFORE completing 2,890 spins?
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  2. 12-20-09 12:28 PM #2
    ncat12
    'want what you have'
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    dont know the 'martingale system'..although if you take a coin and it lands on heads 7 straight times what is the prop. of it coming out on heads for #8 ...I realize there is 'green' along w/ the black and red and my 'personal ' belief would be that it is that much harder than a coin ...like I said I dont know the system and I am FAR from a statistician..just my own personal belief.....there is def a better casino game w/ better odds for you
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  3. 12-20-09 12:32 PM #3
    lucky888gunz
    Parlay GB ML -145 Jon Jones -300
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    http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html
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  4. 12-20-09 01:36 PM #4
    Skanedogg
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    I would say the "randomness" of a computer roulette simulator makes the odds to hit that man reds in a row better than does pure randomness of real roulette, assuming the table is not biased, etc
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  5. 12-20-09 01:47 PM #5
    Bakerdew
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    I also have to say you need to watch for limits. There will be bet limits in place to keep you from constantly doubling your bets
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  6. 12-20-09 03:28 PM #6
    scottel
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    try this, dogs do pretty well in bowl games...put 100 on next bowl game dog...if it wins +100, bet 100 on next dog.if it wins +200....next one bet 200, wins +400....just need short dog streak to get to 3500....if first bet loses go 100 again........have to lose 6 dogs in row before 620 is gone
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  7. 12-20-09 11:17 PM #7
    keel44
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    It all comes down to your roulette playing. Your idea for the roulette stinks. Your better off running 4 series' of 3 game chase bets a day. You play to profit $25 on each of the 4 chases. You chase no more than 3 games. You might get a loss at some point but most chases should be wrapped up and you can slowly increase your bankroll and then raise your stakes accordingly. Use this great forum for quality picks. I like the sports betting professor personally.
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  8. 12-21-09 09:02 AM #8
    StevieM
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    I'd say be careful, I've seen a coin land on the same side 7 straight times and doubling up on that can cost a good chunk of money.
    I'd be happy making what you need from what you've got but I'm the slow & steady type & I'd be looking at about 10 weeks to $3500
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  9. 12-21-09 09:22 AM #9
    paste_me
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    gambling to pay off a gambling debt? i think this only works in movies...
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  10. 12-21-09 09:27 AM #10
    Skyline
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    Current roulette systems detect that you follow martingale system... Be careful...
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  11. 12-21-09 09:43 AM #11
    puppetm716
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottel View Post
    try this, dogs do pretty well in bowl games...put 100 on next bowl game dog...if it wins +100, bet 100 on next dog.if it wins +200....next one bet 200, wins +400....just need short dog streak to get to 3500....if first bet loses go 100 again........have to lose 6 dogs in row before 620 is gone
    Saying dogs do pretty well in bowl games is not an accurate assumption.

    It ends up 50 -50.

    Everybody's got a system. I'm sure you are taking your own advice.

    It takes a while to accumulate + $$$. Just look at all the "systems' people follow and the net $$$.

    It's not going to happen in a short period of time unless you just get lucky.

    Best of Luck
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  12. 12-21-09 10:38 AM #12
    Seth_21887
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    If I were you I would try my hand at craps instead of roulette, mainly because it has the lowest house edge of all casino games (1.41%). that is playing strictly on either the pass or the don't pass line. But then again, I believe that the online casinos don't like you to win all the time so even though the odds seem great, you are destined to lose and usually end up where you started. Good luck.
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  13. 12-21-09 10:44 AM #13
    lcf
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    This thread doesn't belong to this forum...
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  14. 12-21-09 12:08 PM #14
    tavesims
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    you will doom yourself with roulette I guarantee it.
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  15. 12-21-09 03:44 PM #15
    Tsunami
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    Thats insanity............... bet $300, you BR will allow 2 bets, if the 1st one wins bet $600 on the next and hope to get hot.......a few bets later you will have most of your money back

    other than that.........stiff the book, it won't be the 1st time and more than likely they have stiffed someone in the past
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  16. 12-21-09 04:09 PM #16
    Ocean6778
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    Quote Originally Posted by paste_me View Post
    gambling to pay off a gambling debt? i think this only works in movies...
    I agree. Best advice would be to stop gambling and get another job.

    Aloha and BOL.
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  17. 12-21-09 05:37 PM #17
    ncat12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Thats insanity............... bet $300, you BR will allow 2 bets, if the 1st one wins bet $600 on the next and hope to get hot.......a few bets later you will have most of your money back

    other than that.........stiff the book, it won't be the 1st time and more than likely they have stiffed someone in the past
    sik i tell ya sik..at the same time sooo true
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