[LLXC]

5* BEST BET
New England over BUFFALO by 15
“Moss’ time in New England may be slipping away. He gives up early in games, at least that’s what they say.” Who needs Barry Manilow, anyway? The Patriots sure don’t but they will need Randy Moss if they want to hang on to the AFC East lead and challenge the Colts and the Bolts in this year’s playoffs. The Patriots offense hasn’t been running on all cylinders of late but we’ll look for Moss to once again grow fat (as in catches) against a Bills’ squad the Pats have beaten 12 straight times, averaging 29 PPG in the process. The site certainly won’t make a difference as the visiting Belichicks have won the last five games SU by an average score of 33-8. And speaking of Belichick, he must be one of Santa’s favorites as he has ‘toyed’ with division opponents since taking over in 2000. He is a merry 10-1 ATS on the AFC East highway versus a foe off a SU win. We also checked our list twice and found out that the Pats’ HC is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in division road finales. And Belichick just doesn’t beat division foes, he spanks them as well – as evidenced by his 36-9 ATS mark in SU division wins as a favorite, including 20-3 ATS during the 2nd half of the season. We all know about San Diego’s 16-game December win streak but New England has quietly put together a pretty impressive December resume as well, winning 22 of their last 26 regular season games. They have also dominated their division in December off a SU win, posting a solid 17-6 ATS mark. The Bills, on the other hand, have struggled at home when returning off an away game against .500 or greater division foes, logging a scrooge-like 2-12 ATS record. With the hosts 1-8 ATS in their last nine games off a win, we have a strong yearning Moss, Belichick and the rest of the Patriots are not quite ready to wave goodbye.

3* BEST BET
KANSAS CITY over Cleveland by 11
When it comes to garbage versus garbage, there is only one thing to do. Trust in the database... and we do. The visiting Browns enter off a monster upset over division rival Pittsburgh, and we now know that letdowns are in order for teams that upset the defending Super Bowl champions in their last game. For the record, they are 18-41-1 ATS when on the road the next game, including 0-5 SU and ATS if they own a win percentage of .300 or less – with EVERY loss by double-digits. Add to the mix the fact that Cleveland is 1-9 SU on the road in December the last three-plus seasons and we like the Chiefs’ chances to salvage the last leg of this three-game home stand. Yes, we realize the Featherheads are just 5-33 SU in their last 38 contests but that pales in comparison to the Browns’ 1-17 SU road record in games off a win. The bottom line in this battle of Ugly Betty’s is this: since 1999 there have been six teams that have closed out three-game homestands that went 0-2 SU and ATS in the first two games. They were 6-0 SU and ATS in these salvage plays. The next collection day is Sunday.

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NFL TOTALS
3* Broncos UNDER
4* Titans UNDER
5* Jets UNDER