[LLXC]

TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: Over 40
Chicago Baltimore -10
Baltimore 6 at Chicago (-2) 10 - 2005 O/U 40 10 am PT
While weather is somewhat of a concern in projecting a total in this venue, the
advanced forecast calls for mild conditions. The field turf in Baltimore drains
well and plays fast so some of those concerns with precipitation are assuaged.
With the playoffs at stake we saw a sense of urgency last week against the Lions.
Ray Rice torched Detroit’s struggling defense and there is little reason to
expect anything different against the struggling Bears. While the Ravens did
manage to hold the Lions to just three points, the Baltimore defense remains
overrated. Injuries to playmakers Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs have even further
diminished this unit. The Bears should be able to connect on some big
plays and move the football. Even if they do struggle, they have abandoned
any real semblance of balance and will sling the ball all over the field. Turnovers
and plenty of clock stoppage time will help our cause. This line is reasonable
as the Ravens are averaging 33 points per game at home. We project
plenty of offensive success this weekend and will play over the total.





BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Green Bay +1
Green Bay +1 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh (-3) 20 at Green Bay 10 - 2005 O/U 39.5 10 am PT
I see no reason to believe that Pittsburgh’s slide is over and have to go against
them again this week. They have dropped five straight games, three of those to
woeful Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, and two of the losses have been at
home. Sure this is a must win game, but so was last week at Cleveland, and the
week before that at home against Oakland. The fact is that this team is not very
good right now, with the offensive line struggling and the defense missing Troy
Polamalu. The offense depends so much on the ability of Ben Roethlisberger
to make plays after scrambling around, and if that doesn’t work, there is nothing
else to fall back on. Lately, Big Ben hasn’t even had time to scramble, as the
Steelers allowed eight sacks last week to a Cleveland defense missing five starters.
Green Bay is in excellent shape after beating Chicago last week to move to
9-4. They have won five straight games and have solved their offensive line problems
from earlier in the year. Aaron Rodgers and company are the best offense
Pittsburgh has seen of late and I look for their defensive troubles to intensify.




TEDDY COVERS
Best Bet: Cincinnati +7
Cincinnati +7 San Diego
San Diego (+1) 49 at Cincinnati 41 - 2006 O/U 44 1 am PT
San Diego rolls into this game as the toast of the West Coast, winners of eight straight
games following their upset win in Dallas on Sunday. That being said, this is still a
fundamentally flawed team. For the season, the Chargers have been outrushed
by 1.1 yards per attempt. Their 3.3 ypc ranks dead last in the NFL, while their 4.4
ypc allowed makes them no better than mediocre. This is a one dimensional football
team – if they can’t throw down field, they can’t win. Even in their win over the
Cowboys, the Chargers rushed for only 2.4 ypc while allowing four yards per rushing
attempt. The injury bug has hit the Chargers hard. They still don’t have starting
center Nick Hardwick, left tackle Marcus McNeil has a bad ankle, safety Eric Weddle
and defensive tackle Alfonso Boone both sat out last Sunday; the Boone injury a
real problem with Jamal Williams, Jyles Tucker and Ogemdi Nwagbuo already on
injured reserve. Both Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo are banged up as well.
When a 3-4 defense has cluster injuries on the defensive line and at linebacker, it’s
never a recipe for success as a favorite against a hungry, talented foe like the Bengals.




ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Cincinnati +7
Cincinnati +7 San Diego
San Diego (+1) 49 at Cincinnati 41 - 2006 O/U 44 1 am PT
The Bengals are back on the highway with a long trek to San Diego to battle the
Chargers. The Chargers can do absolutely no wrong right now winning eight
straight games. However, we are all well aware of the natural ebb and flow of
this league and I’m looking for a sub-par performance this weekend. And while
credit is indeed due, it’s not like San Diego is simply just blowing their opponents
out or dominating every game. In fact, the Chargers are a team that’s right
in the middle of the pack in terms of yards gained and allowed -- much worse
from a rushing yardage standpoint. Meanwhile, the Bengals are no slouch themselves,
trailing the Chargers by only one game in the win-loss column. They
however have been in a mini-slump, splitting their last four games, while failing
to record a spread cover. But this week, I’ll call for Bengals to own the line
of scrimmage and be in this game from start to finish. The Bengals rank sixth
in the NFL rushing the football, but maybe more importantly, rank third at stopping
the run. The Bengals stay close in San Diego and could even pull the upset.




ROB VENO
Best Bet: Baltimore -10
Chicago Baltimore -10
Baltimore 6 at Chicago (-2) 10 - 2005 O/U 40 10 am PT
It’s wise to be taking every opportunity available to fade this Chicago team which
was officially eliminated from the postseason last Sunday. The Bears put forth another
brutal offensive performance, running four plays or less on seven of their 11
full possessions. Those seven drives netted a total of 18 yards. Jay Cutler tossed
another pair of interceptions and he was sacked three times as the offensive line
continues to play miserably in all facets. Expect the Ravens to bring immense defensive
pressure from the outset, creating havoc and turnovers the way Minnesota
did three weeks ago. The Bears’ last four road games have seen them fail to
eclipse 14 points and they’ve gone 0-4 both straight up and against the spread.
Here they’ll face what figures to be a confident Baltimore team that broke out of an
offensive slump and racked up 548 yards last week. Motivationally, Baltimore has
plenty to play for as they are in great position to garner the AFC’s sixth and final
playoff position. Expect the Ravens defense to be dominant and their offense to
wear down the Chicago defense which is likely to be on the field for far too long.




DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Tennessee NL
Miami Tennessee NL
Tennessee (+10.5) 10 at Miami 13 - 2006 O/U NL 10 am PT
At 6-7 and 7-6 the Titans and Dolphins are fighting for the final wildcard spot.
And while the media will focus on “Vince Young or Kerry Collins?” we feel the issue
is irrelevant. The reality is that the Titans have won with both players behind
center. To us, even though early week indications are that Vince Young will be
ready, it really makes no difference. The reality of the Titans’ turnaround is that
the secondary got healthy. The defense was so banged up during the first six
games of the season that the same secondary did not start consecutive games.
As the team got healthier the defense started to make a difference by causing
turnovers and forcing field goals. This week at home in an essential playoff elimination
game, we would expect a strong defensive showing once again. Tennessee
ranks in the top ten in rush defense and has allowed less than 100 yards per
game. That ability will force Miami out of its offensive game plan. While the Titans’
pass defense doesn’t show well statistically, the unit is much better than the numbers
indicate. Home field and a short price make the Titans an obvious choice




FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: Under 43
Minnesota -7 Carolina
Carolina 10 at Minnesota (-3.5) 20 - 2008 O/U 43 5 pm PT
The Vikings continue to roll and can close in on the NFC’s No. 2 seed and
first round playoff bye with a win at Carolina. Minnesota should rely heavily
on their ground game this week with Adrian Peterson as Carolina has
struggled to slow the run in recent weeks. The Panthers have allowed 185,
154, 139, 154 and 176 yards rushing their past five contests. On offense, the
Panthers have turned one-dimensional which should make for a big day
from the Vikings’ defense. The amount of pressure unproven quarterback
Matt Moore likely receives expects to be very similar to what he saw a few
weeks backs against the Jets. In that game, Carolina manage only six points
and under 200 yards offense. I don’t expect Minnesota’s offense to be as dynamic
or determined this week while playing outdoors for the first time since
November 1st. Minnesota has played five straight games under the total
while Carolina has now played four straight. The combination of the Vikings’
strong defense and the Panthers’ poor offense should keep the streak alive.





MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Cincinnati +7
Cincinnati +7 San Diego
San Diego (+1) 49 at Cincinnati 41 - 2006 O/U 44 1 am PT
The Chargers have won eight in a row from a straight up perspective while covering
six of those eight contests. But a look at the schedule suggests this streak is less than
impressive as only a home win over the Eagles really stands out as an impressive win.
The Chargers stink at running the football ranking 31st in yardage, 32nd in ypc and will
only find success in games where they can chuck it down field against weak secondary
units. That isn’t the case this weekend. Cincinnati’s defense is top five unit with a solid
back four. They have more INTs than TD passes allowed and opponents are completing
just 56% of their passes which ranks fifth best in the league. Pressure can be generated
as well as the Bengals rank in the top 10 in sacks. On the other side of the ball Cincinnati
should fare much better offensively than they did in a losing effort against Minnesota.
The Bengals’ ground attack is the real driving force for their offense and while the Vikings
stymied them, the Chargers don’t have that type of ability. San Diego’s banged
up defense allowed nearly 5.0 ypc over the last month and if you can’t stop Cincinnati’s
rushing attack, you can’t separate from them on the scoreboard. Take the underdog.
HELMUT SPORTS




Best Bet: Under 44.5
UCF Rutgers -2.5
@ St. Petersburg, Fla. O/U 44.5 5 pm PT (ESPN)
UCF’s defense led C-USA in points allowed at 20.7 ppg which is pretty impressive given
the offensive nature of most of the conference. They also had non-conference tilts
against Texas and Miami. The rush defense was really strong finishing fifth in the nation
and if there is one area of concern it is in the pass defense, which at times was a little
suspect. With the graduation of Mike Teel the Scarlet Knights used freshman quarterback
Tom Savage and the production in the passing game fell off the grid. The offense
particularly struggled against teams that defend the run as they failed to surpass 21
points in games against Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. On the surface it appears
UCF’s offense was not that bad, but keep in mind that they had five games against
teams ranking 100th or worse in total defense and one FCS opponent. In the other six
games the offense averaged only 14.5 ppg and really struggled when playing teams
with strong defenses. Against Texas and Miami, the offense could not generate more
than seven total points and was held to less than 200 ypg. Expect the offense to once
again have problems going against an above average Rutgers’ stop unit. Take the under.





ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Over 39
Tampa Bay Seattle -7
Seattle (+10.5) 10 at Tampa Bay 20 - 2008 O/U 39 1 am PT
If you watched Tampa Bay of late, you’d probably refer to them as the worst team in football.
For every good play rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has made, two bad ones have
followed. The offense can’t score against a decent defense and even when facing a below
average stop unit like Carolina, they failed to cash in on multiple attempts inside the
red zone. So why in the world would we be looking to play this type of team over the total?
For starters, last week’s loss at Houston officially ended Seattle’s season. Back-to-back
wins heading in gave them a glimmer of hope but at 5-8, they are playing for exercise.
We’ve seen sound defensive efforts and low scoring affairs when the Seahawks match up
against division foes, but every non-NFC West contest has gone over the total of 39. With
the exception of the recent win over San Francisco, Seattle has rarely been able to put
forth a complete effort on both sides of the ball. Since shutting out Jacksonville in week
five -- when the season had meaning -- Seattle has allowed 17 or more points in eight
straight games with two of those involving the Lions and Rams. Let’s also not forget Tampa
Bay’s defense is going to be involved here as well. We’ll call for this one to go over the total