[LLXC]

Key Selections
4* SAN DIEGO over Cincinnati - The Chargers are known for peaking late in the year when it matters most & are 9-1 ATS in December. LW they traveled to face a talented but snakebitten DAL team & beat them 20-17 as a 3.5 pt AD. SD had a 20-10 lead but gave up a garbage TD who were trying to rally but SD was forcing them to burn the clock. While SD was outgained by 7 yds, 86 of the Cowboys yards came on the final drive. SD held the home team to 1 of 8 on 3rd Dns & made a brilliant goal line stand in the 2Q holding on 1st & goal at the 3 as DAL tried 4 straight runs with Barber. SD has covered 5 of its L6 & the lone ATS loss was vs CLE when they were up 20 pts & lost interest. Rivers has passed for 273 ypg (65%) with a 33-8 ratio since last December. SD has the #7 & #9 units (+6 TO’s) the L4W vs CIN’s #23 & #4 units (-2 TO’s) in the same span. Palmer hasn’t looked very effective the L4 with 160 ypg (58%) with a 3-3 ratio & there are rumblings that his elbow isn’t right from LY. CIN hasn’t been the same since the PIT game & have failed to cover 4 straight. They didn’t look like they could handle an elite team LW vs MIN getting outgained 322-210 with 2 drives over 20 yds. SD is used to playing at an elite level when it matters most & CIN’s 2009 party balloon may have deflated.
FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 34 Cincinnati 17

3* Minnesota over CAROLINA - This is the 4th meeting in five years with the home team going 3-0 SU & ATS. LY the Vikings beat the Panthers 20-10 as a 3 pt HF. MIN had a 305-204 yd edge as their defense dominated with holding CAR to 47 yds rushing (2.4), sacking Delhomme 5 times as CAR was hit with 12 penalties. Favre is 4-0 ATS vs CAR avg 216 ypg (63%) with a 9-2 ratio. The matchups here play well into the Vikings’ hands with the #5 & #7 units (+7 TO’s) vs CAR with the #21 & #15 units (-3 TO’s) who lead the NFL with 31 giveaways. CAR’s biggest matchup weakness is that their strength on offense in the run game (150 ypg 4.9) can be taken away by MIN who is allowing 87 ypg (4.1) by a combination of their DL & an offense that posted 30 ppg in 7 of its L10 games. CAR lacks the passing weapons to challenge here & they have a career LG shifted out to LT Gross’ spot vs DE Allen (12.5 sacks).YesbyplayingongrasstheVikingsspee dedgeisdiminished&it’sunknownifHarvinwillplay but Favre (257 ypg 68% 27-6) is playing at a career level & the Vikings still haven’t wrapped up the #2
seed. FORECAST: Minnesota 28 CAROLINA 10

OTHER SELECTIONS
2* NY JETS over Atlanta - Both teams rested their young QB’s LW due to injuries & it’s not known if either will return here. ATL did a commendable job vs NO LW without 3 offensive starters & its #1 CB. They overcame a 23-9 deficit to tie it up early in the 4Q but were unable to follow it up vs a team without its starting CB’s. Redman had another good game with 303 yds (68%) with a 1-1 ratio but the offense had no balance with a 21/34 run pass ratio & 89 yds (4.2). This will basically be the dome teams 1st road game in a month & in potentially cold & windy surroundings. Clemens started for Sanchez LW & he was underwhelming with 111 yds (52%) vs the #25 defense but the Jets had a 175 (4.2) to 43 (2.2) rush edge & the defense turned 3 TO’s into 10 pts. The Jets have a solid matchup with their #1 rush attack (169 ypg 4.6) vs the Falcons #23 rush defense (118 ypg 4.3). While the Jets are only 18th in sacks by their #1 pass defense is legit with 53% allowed with a very impressive 5.5 ypa & 7-15 ratio with just 1 game where they allowed 2 passing TD’s. The Jets have only allowed 300 yd offense once TY at home (JAX 347) & minus Ginn’s 2 special teams TD’s they have allowed 14.7 ppg at home. We’ll side with the Jets physical rush & defense at home with a shot at the playoffs vs a dome team in the cold off a tough loss. FORECAST: NY JETS 23 Atlanta 10

2* SEATTLE over Tampa Bay - This is the 4th year in a row these teams have met with SEA covering all3.LYTBbeatSEA20-10butfailedtocoverasa10.5ptHF.TheBucshad a17-0leadatthehalfas SEA was playing their 3rd different QB in 3 games & TB ended the game with 22-7 FD & 402-176 yd edges. They now get TB’s rookie QB who has 13 int in 6 starts in a long travel situation with the Qwest Field 12th man. LW vs the Jets the Bucs were down 17-0 at the half outFD’d 9-0 & outgained 195-25. SEA wasalsobulliedinthe1HvsHOULWastheyfaceda 24-7deficit&outFD19-5&outgained364-122. They now return home (4-2 SU & ATS) where they are allowing 117 overall yds, 61 rushing yds & 16 pts less than on the road. Hasselbeck is avg 232 ypg (65%) with a 10-4 ratio at home & he didn’t play in the CHI loss. HC Raheem Morris shifted the defense back to the Tampa-2 recently, SEA DC Casey Bradley was the LB coach at TB for 2 years & was recommended to SEA by Monte Kiffin. While SEA will likely be without WLB Curry here we’ll side with a team with a massive home edge vs a young road team that has been held to 7 or less in 3 of its L4 games TY. FORECAST: SEATTLE 23 Tampa Bay 7

[LLXC]

First meeting. SMiss is making their 8th straight bowl appearance and their 2nd straight trip to this bowl. They beat Troy 30-27 (+4’) here in OT LY in Fedora’s 1st bowl as HC. The Eagles are guaranteed another winningseason,their16thstraight.Theyfini shedthessnona5-1ATSrun(4-2SU).Aftermissingouton postseason play the L2Y, the Raiders return to a bowl game in ‘09 and come in on a roll, having won 6 in a row SU/ATS. HC Stockstill led MT to its 1st ever bowl in ‘06 and they lost 31-14 (+8) to CM in the Motor City Bowl. A win here would give the Raiders their 1st 10 win ssn since moving to 1A in 1999. They faced just 2 bowl tms and went 0-2 SU/ATS and were outscored 34-11 and outgained 408-327. SM faced 4 bowl tms and went 2-2 SU/ATS with even numbers in ppg (29-29) and ypg (437-435). Both tms faced and beat MemphisTY.MTwon31-14(E)andoutgainedMem436-219.SMwon36-16(-16)despitebeingoutgained 425-360.Bothtmsplayonturf,butSMissis5-0SU(4-1ATS)indomeswhileMTis1-2SU/ATS.TheRaiders have 9 Sr’s among their 18 upperclassmen starters, while the Eagles have 9 Sr’s out of 16 upperclassmen starters. MT was 4-2 ATS on the road TY, incl 2-2 as a dog. SM went 3-3 ATS on the road, incl 1-2 as a fav. SM should have a large crowd edge as the campus is just over 100 miles from The Big Easy.
The MT off avg 31 ppg and 419 ypg on the yr finishing with our #68 overall ranking. QB Dasher is without question the biggest piece to MT’s success as not only has he passed for more than 2,500 yds (55%, 21-14 ratio), but he also leads the team in rushing and is just 47 yds shy of eclipsing the 1,000 yd barrier (4.8, 11 TD). Trailing Dasher in rushing is RB Kyles who has filled in valiantly for the inj’d Phillip Tanner (714 yds, 3.8, 15 TD in ‘08). The rec yds for the Raiders in ‘09 are split between the trio of McClover, Honeycutt and Andrews, who all have a chance of reaching the 500 yd plateau for the ssn here. The OL avg 6’3” 284 (1 Sr) paving the way for 4.6 ypc while all’g 18 sks (4.4%). The MT def is ranked #58, all’g 23 ppg and 352 ypg.The unit has ply’d well of late all’g only FAU to surpass the 400 yd mark over the past 7 gms. The DL avg 6’2” 256 (2 Sr) and as a group started all 48 gms on the yr. They do depend on the LB’s, however, in the area of sacks as the DL as a whole accounted for just 18.5 of the 38 takedowns (49%). Robinson and Carmichael lead the LB corps ranking 1st and 2nd on the tm this ssn w/a combined 191 tkls (11.5 sks).The secondary earned our #24 ranking all’g 214 ypg (55%) w/a 13-17 ratio led by Bama trans Marcus Udell who recorded an SBC best 7 int. The Raider ST unit finished with our #92 rating as they struggled in the return game on the ssn. The bright spot in the group was the kicking of Gendreau who hit 18-21 (86%) on the ssn.
The Eagles’ up tempo, spread attack is our #44 off avg 33 ppg and 418 ypg. They really didn’t miss a beat when QB Davis was lost for the season (foot) in wk 5. Martevious Young stepped in as his replacementandhasplayedverywell.Heisavg2 25ypg(58%)witha13-1ratioinhis7sts.Theyhave a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield with the school’s all-time leading rusher Fletcher and Harrison. If Fletcher (972) hits the 1,000 yd mark, he will become just the 9th player in 1A history to rush for 1,000 yds in 4 straight ssns. 6’6” WR Brown is the leading rec with 43 (16.7) and 7 TD. He has big play ability asheandYounghookedupfora95ydTDpassvsTuls a.TheOLhas4Srstartersandavg6’3”293. They paved the way for 186 ypg rush (4.7) and all’d just 16 sks (4.5%). SMiss enters with our #70 D all’g 388 ypg and 25 ppg. The DL avg 6’2” 274 and is all’g 3.4 ypc and has 19.5 of the team’s 33 sks. LB Korey Williams leads with 112 tkls. They are #66 in our pass D rankings all’g 266 ypg (62%) with a 18-12 ratio, but they have all’d 330+ pass yds in 3 of their L/4 gms, incl 559 to Houston.The Eagles have our #14 ST’s mostly due to their 2 dynamic returnmen, Parham and Lampley. The kicking game has struggled as the 2 K have made 12-18 FG’s, but amazingly they have failed on 10 PAT, incl 1 that was blk’d by EC and ret’d for 2 pts, which may have cost SM a trip to the CUSA title game.
The Golden Eagles now have their 16th str winning season and their 8th str bowl appearance.They’ve coveredtheirL/3bowlgmsandfinishedthisseasoncovering3st raight.MTmadesolidimprovements and a win here would give them their 1st 10 win ssn and match their comb win total from the previous 2Y. They also come in playing excellent ball having won and covered 6 str games although all were vs the SBC (minus Troy). We will side with the proven winner that has edges on both sides of the line and has skill players that are not only better, but have proven themselves over the last several years.
FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS by 11
RATING: 2* S MISS