[LLXC]

BEST BET
GREEN BAY over *PITTSBURGH by 14
Shed no tears for the 6-7 SU, 3-10 ATS Pittsburgh Steelers, last year’s Super Bowl win- ner and a team for whom a small percentage of sudden, game-changing plays has given them two Super Bowls in the last four years, plus a lot of regular season wins along the way. Some of it was skill. Some of it was luck. Most of it seemed to be sparked by Troy Polamalu on defense, and the team is doing a toilet-swirl without him, losing three straight to three of the sorriest teams in the NFL – Kansas City, Oakland, Cleveland. Mother Nature is merely evening the score for some ridiculous lightning that has struck in this team’s favor. Ha, ha, ha. Normally, you don’t discount a team with decent person- nel, that isn’t dead from the playoffs yet, returning home, with extra time to prepare, against an opponent coming off a hard-fought win against a division rival. The Packers are off the off Bears, and control their own destiny in the NFC Wild Card chase. Green Bay has won five in a row and seems to be riding on a jet stream of Aaron Rodgers throws. More than the last three lousy offensive teams that beat the Steelers, this offense can take advantage of Pittsburgh’s defensive injuries – which extend past safety Polamalu and onto the defensive line – and keep it going. In fact, after Pittsburgh let Roethlisberger get sacked eight times by the Browns, why should it get any better for the Steelers? When bad teams beat you, you probably haven’t bottomed out yet, right? GREEN BAY, 34-20.

BEST BET
ARIZONA over *DETROIT by 24
The real problem with Detroit is their defense – or utter lack thereof. It’s a situation that’s been bad all season, as the Lions give up an average of 31.2 points per game. A big rea- son is their league worst secondary, offenders of the worst kind, giving up an average of 272.1 passing yards per game, including 29 touchdown passes and picking off only eight passes all year. It’s a bad situation to be in with Arizona’s number five passing offense coming into town. The Cardinals have been close to unstoppable on offense, as long as Kurt Warner is taking the snaps, with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald teaming to form a near indefensible wide receiver tandem. If you double-cover one, you are sure to be punished by the other, and since Detroit has maybe one NFL-average cornerback, there will be a lot of catching and running down the field in this week’s game – especially inside the ideal conditions of Ford Field. Lousy defenses normally do not get better against the elite offenses. The Lions opened the season allowing 40+ to New Orleans, allowed 48 to a Baltimore team that hasn’t been able to get out of its own way lately, and the rout should once again be on. ARIZONA, 41-17.

RECOMMENDED
ATLANTA over *NY JETS by 3
It’s too easy to assume that since the Falcons have lost four out of five to pretty much drop from NFC Wild Card contention at 6-7, while the Jets have won three in a row to re- emerge as an AFC Wild Card contender at 7-6, that things will continue this way, that this is where the very hard schedule gets to Atlanta and finally guts them. But the Falcons have nothing to lose, and the Jets might play not to lose. That would create a situation where the Jets -- a favorite resorting to direct-snaps and running the ball a lot against opponents with losing records -- play like mice avoiding the cat instead of like cats pouncing on mice. The Falcons are a stranger to the Jets and the New York coaching staff. There is no book on Falcons’ back-up quarterback Chris Redman. The Jets are cramming for a foe that gets their 350+ offensive yards per game more often than not, while the Jets and their sub-300 yards per game offense have a quarterback controver- sy – which one is worse, Clemens or Sanchez? Seriously, with one of them leading the offense in a game the Jets almost have to win (considering Miami also has a 7-6 record but two wins against New York), and with a free-agent receiver becoming a go-to guy when Atlanta still has Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez there to make plays, why not the Falcons? ATLANTA, 23-20.

RECOMMENDED
*SAN DIEGO over CINCINNATI by 16
You can see it now – Cincinnati suffers another disheartening loss on the road to San Diego, delaying their inevitable clinching of the AFC North for one more week and caus- ing the entire Cincinnati metropolitan region to recoil at what is the inevitability of the Bengals blowing what is so certainly a sure thing. But don’t forget that Kansas City still awaits on the schedule, virtually guaranteeing the Bungles a 10-win season and the tiebreaker against their closest rival, the Ravens. But it’s also a virtual guarantee that Cincinnati will fail to show up this week against the red hot Chargers, winners of eight in a row. San Diego is playing extremely well on both sides of the ball, with the only mat- ter of concern being their lackluster running game – but with Norv Turner calling the plays and Phil Rivers throwing the ball, San Diego attacks down the field more often and better than anyone. A trait that is sure to score some points against even Cincinnati’s highly rated secondary. SAN DIEGO, 30-14.

[LLXC]

RECOMMENDED
*TORONTO over NEW ORLEANS by 11
It’s a formula that works more often than not – taking the home team for these early afternoon games in Toronto. Most teams take advantage of being in Toronto on a week- end by going out and partying just a little too hard on Saturday nights... and not being prepared for the game the next day. It’s been a little more difficult for the inconsistent Raptors to take advantage this year, but the teams they have lost to are veteran playoff contenders – not exactly what the Hornets would be considered. TORONTO 107-96

RECOMMENDED
*MEMPHIS over DENVER by 7
There’s a very good chance the Nuggets look past this game, having played in New Orleans on Thursday night and going out on Bourbon Street after the game. When the average Denver player thinks of Memphis, he’s probably not concerning himself too much for the upcoming match. What they don’t realize is that Memphis’ frontcourt strength plays right into Denver’s lack of depth in the post, where the undersized Kenyon Martin is their most effective player. Look for the Grizzlies to gain a little respect today in anoth- er early start game. MEMPHIS 106-99

[LLXC]

RECOMMENDED
*UCONN over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 25
It is nearly impossible to score in the paint against UCONN’s shot blocking defensive machine. They’ll force UCF, a team that doesn’t shoot the 3 that well, to work for every shot. Seeing as though the visitors struggle to protect the ball – every additional pass increases the turnover risk. UCF will come in at worst 7-3, but we’ll be surprised if they double the current win total by season’s end. UCONN, 78-53.