Packers (pk) over @Steelers Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Matty, Erik, and Dave have all been doing a great job here this year and in his Max analysis of his Browns pick over the Steelers last week Erik did a nice job detailing the problems that the Steelers have been having during their losing streak. That lack of cohesion, lack of togetherness, the confusion, the finger pointing, and the underachieving continued in an embarrassing loss on Lake Erie.
The defending champs have now lost 5 straight, covering only the game that Dennis Dixon started getting big points in Baltimore. In the other 4 games they failed to cover by a combined 58 points, or better than 2 TD’s per game. At 6-7, it’s unlikely that they’ll make the playoffs, as there are 5 teams that are 7-6 and therefore are ahead of the Steelers in the chase for the final Wild Card berth. Even winning out probably wouldn’t lead to a berth. And in addition to that reality, reports are now surfacing that Mike Tomlin is planning wholesale changes to his coaching staff, which is not a sign of a team with overwhelming chemistry right now. Sure, they want to stay alive for a playoff berth, but when you blow games in “must win” situations against the likes of Oakland and Cleveland, what are you dealing with?
When Green Bay was struggling in the win/loss column their statistics suggested that they were a team that would break out of their win/loss funk, as they were performing well from the line of scrimmage. And they have turned it around, as this game would more or less wrap up a wild card berth for them. The Packers remain very good statistically, outgaining their opponents 5.7 yards to 4.6 on a per play basis, and by over 100 yards per game on average. They’re a very dangerous team that isn’t getting a lot of talk nationally due to the Colts and Saints being undefeated, the two losses to Favre, and a little something going on in the golf world that’s been grabbing the attention of folks. But Green Bay is good.
These are two teams going in absolutely opposite directions. Many of these Steelers know what it’s like to be on a championship team, and they know that they lack that. Their offensive line is an absolute sieve. Their quarterback does them no favors as he seems incapable of throwing the ball away (somewhat understandable due to his success in improvisation over the years), and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of love for one another right now. Realize that those 8 sacks were even worse than the raw number, as the horrid performance came against the worst defense in the league that was missing 5 starters due to injury, including 4 members of the front 7.
The Packers really don’t have a ton to play for. And we’d be a little worried about that if not for a couple of factors. First of all, they’re traveling to take on the defending champs. A trip to Pittsburgh definitely gets the juices flowing. And also, this is a team that was in bad shape a couple of times this year. They don’t take their current momentum for granted, and play hard against a team whose effort is hardly guaranteed. Packers by 7.

Bengals (+ 7) over @Chargers Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
San Diego may be the hottest team in the NFL right now. Aside from the unbeaten Saints and Colts, the Chargers are the only team in the league that hasn’t lost a game over the past two months. They are on a perfect 8-0 straight-up run while going 6-2 against the spread in those games. A run like that is certainly impressive, but there are a few details within those games that suggest the Chargers have taken advantage of a soft schedule and some good fortune. Of the eight teams they’ve played, the Chiefs (twice), Raiders, and Browns are a combined 9-30 on the season. In the four other games they played against teams with a winning record, they scored in the final seconds to beat the Giants 21-20, beat the Eagles by 8, waxed a phony Denver team by 29, and beat Dallas last week by 3. The Chargers are +10 in turnover margin (14-4) during their streak, but turnovers can reverse form quickly, and San Diego is actually overdue for a correction.
The Chargers are also on a well-publicized win streak in the month of December. They’ve won 11 straight games during the month under head coach Norv Turner, and they’ve won 16 consecutive games in the month with quarterback Philip Rivers under center. But those streaks are now getting too much recognition, and the extra attention does a couple of things. It puts more pressure on the Chargers to keep winning, and that simply makes them play a lot tighter than normal. It also creates value in the pointspread as the line now comes out a point or two higher because the oddsmakers know that the public will be looking to play-on San Diego now that they know of the undefeated streaks. And the Chargers are also in a letdown spot for this game as they return home after playing their last two games on the road and three of their last four away from home with the last coming in a spotlight game at Dallas.
Cincinnati comes into this game off a blowout loss at Minnesota. The Bengals were a popular underdog play in that game because they were getting a touchdown. People remember what they saw in the last game, and the fact that Cincinnati entered off a blowout win while the Vikings entered off a blowout loss on Sunday night made the underdog Bengals look like a gift. Now that the opposite is true with Cincinnati off the blowout loss and the Chargers off the big win, nobody will want the underdog in this spot, especially against a red-hot team. But now is the time to take the points as the Bengals have bounced back well after a loss this year. They are 3-0 straight-up off a loss, and in fact, they were an underdog in two of those games. The underdog in Cincinnati games this season is an impressive 12-1 against the spread which indicates the Bengals play in close games. Another close game is likely here, and we’re going to call for the Cincinnati upset. Bengals by 1.

@Broncos (-131⁄2) over Raiders Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Don’t normally like to lay big numbers in this league, but this is a mismatch and the situation calls for it. The Raiders will most likely be without Bruce Gradkowski here (both knees), and it is a huge downgrade back to JaMarcus Russell. On the season, despite making 5 less starts, Gradkowski has thrown for only 140 less yards, averaging 6.7 yards per pass with a solid 6/3 TD/INT ratio. Russell, on the other hand, has thrown for an ugly 5.1 yards per pass with a 2/10 ratio and lost 5 fumbles. As if those numbers aren’t convincing enough, the team is 2-2 with Gradkowski as a starter (did not finish last week), and 2-7 with Russell under center. Gradkowski gave this hopeless franchise some energy and leadership, and it has to be a huge letdown for his teammates to once again be playing behind the high-paid Russell, who simply is not improving in any aspect of being an NFL QB. In last week’s loss to Washington, Gradkowski was off to a very good start, throwing for 8.4 yards per pass and 153 yards in about a quarter and a half of play. Russell went for only 4.3 yards per pass the rest of the way, and the Raiders amassed a lowly 33 yards of offense in the second half!
Gradkowski isn’t the only injury, as the Raiders may be without the game’s best CB Nnamdi Asomugha, and promising young S Michael Huff, both of whom were injured in the Washington loss. They are also without OT Robert Gallery for the rest of the season, and the offensive line has played its best in the 6 games he has started. If those two defensive backs are unable to go that definitely helps our cause, but either way the Broncos will roll here.
Denver is off a competitive loss to Indianapolis where they showed a lot of grit coming back to pull within 5, after falling behind 21-0. This team is right in the thick of the AFC playoff race, finding new life after a players’ only meeting following 4 straight mid-season losses. They will be focused off of last week’s loss, and can draw a lot of positives from playing the Colts tough on the road. Their defense ranks top 5 in points per game (17.7) yards per game (290), and yards per play (4.8), and held Russell and the Raiders to just 3 points and 137 yards of offense in week 2. I expect them to keep Oakland pinned in their own end all day, and perhaps turn some offense into defense. We may able to catch Al Davis nodding off in the press box, as this one could possibly be decided by the 3rd quarter. Denver by 19