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    Default Logical Approach Newsletter 12/20

    Southern Miss is in a Bowl for the eighth straight season and is making a second straight appearance in this Bowl, their fourth in 6 seasons and all have been against Sun Belt Conference team. SMU has won their past 3 New Orleans Bowls by 21, 12 and 3 points, with that 3 pointer being last season against a very solid Troy team. Middle Tennessee is in only their second Bowl and it comes after a 3 season absence. They lost to Central Michigan in the 2006 Motor City Bowl. This is MTSU's best team perhaps ever. They have a pair of losses to BCS teams (Clemson and Mississippi State) but also have a win over a BCS team when they defeated Maryland for a second straight season, this time on the road. They have won and covered their last 6 games, all against Sun Belt foes. Their only conference loss was to champion Troy. Southern Miss also lost to a pair of BCS conference teams (Kansas and Louisville) in addition to defeating Virginia. One of their wins was against an FCS foe while MTSU played a full FBS schedule. Both teams hosted Memphis this season with MTSU winning 31-14 and outgaining the Tigers 436-219. Southern Miss won 36-16 but were outgained 425-360. Both teams have similar overall stats with the largest edge belonging to MTSU's pass defense. MTSU may also be a bit more excited to be here as a Bowl is a rare experience for the Blue Raiders and their fans. Southern Miss may have the larger crowd support with the closeness of this site to their campus but this Bowl is old hat for them as noted above. SMU has demonstrated their class edge against Sun Belt teams in recent seasons but this MTSU team is every bit as good as was Troy last season. Edges in the intangibles again tilts the scales in this minor Bowl. MTSU pulls the minor upset, winning 27-21, making MIDDLE TENNESSEE a 2 Star Selection and the UNDER also a 2 Star Selection .

  2. #2

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    NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: BALTIMORE - 10 over Chicago - The Bears will miss the Playoffs and the future of their coaching staff is very much up in the air. Much of their woes can be traced to the failure of the offense to develop a running game and of QB Cutler to deliver in key situations. The Bears have the worst ground game in the league, averaging just 86 yards per game. Baltimore remains in the Playoff hunt and has feasted on this level of competition. Against teams currently 5-8 or worse the Ravens are 4-0 both straight up and ATS, winning by an average score of 34-8 and outgaining those foes by an average of 450-191. It's when stepping up in class that the Ravens have struggled. Baltimore has the clearly better stats with the #12 offense and # 9 defense. They also excel at avoiding turnovers It's hard to see Chicago sustaining much intensity for more than the first few minutes of this contest while the Ravens will be aggressive and intense throughout. Chicago's lost 5 of 6 and 7 of 9 as well as being on an 0-6 and 1-8 ATS run. Baltimore's impressive results against this level of foe makes them a solid play. Baltimore wins 27-13.

    Other Featured NFL Selections :
    KANSAS CITY - 2 1⁄2 over Cleveland - Congrats to the Browns for their win over arch rival Pittsburgh last Thursday that all but knocked the Steelers out of the Playoffs. It was the high point in a season of disappointment and turmoil for Cleveland and was accomplished despite 6 of 19 passing by QB Quinn. Kansas City ends their home season here and are seeking to avoid a second straight season of 1-7 at home. QB Cassel has been disappointing and was picked off 5 times last week by Buffalo. But a running game has surfaced with Charles gaining 143 in last week's loss. The Chiefs' weakness all season has been their defense but Cleveland's offense does not possess the firepower to take advantage. Against teams with records of 6-7 or better the Chiefs are allowing 33 points and 448 yards per game. In their 5 games against weaker teams they are allowing just 11 points and 244 yards per game. The situation and the stats against this level of competition greatly favor the hosts. Kansas City wins 23-10.

    SEATTLE - 7 over Tampa Bay - It's been a long and disappointing season for both teams and while Tampa was known to be in rebuilding mode there was some hope for Seattle to return to prior form following an injury filled 2008. But that has not materialized as Seattle has played poorly on the road, losing 6 of 7 games. But the 'Hawks have performed well at home where they are 4-2 with 3 of the wins by double digits. Tampa has lost all 7 road games with 4 of the losses by double digits. This is a long road trip for the Buccs who have little to play for other than the continued development of rookie QB Freeman who continues to struggle after some early positive signs, tossing 3 interceptions in last week's loss to the Jets. Both offenses have not run the ball well but Seattle has defended the run extremely well while Tampa is allowing 161 rushing ypg (#31). Tampa has decent pass defense stats but most offenses prefer the run to the pass. When healthy Seattle does have pretty good offensive balance with QB Hasselbeck a savvy veteran. Seattle wins comfortably, 27-13.

    WASHINGTON + 3 over N Y Giants (Monday) - The Giants' Playoff hopes were dealt a blow with
    last week's loss to Philadelphia. Much of the Giants' woes this season have been on defense where the coaching of former coordinator and current St Louis coach Spagnuolo is clearly missed. Washington is playing better over the second half of the season as the offense has gotten hot. After being held to 17 points or less in each of their first 8 games the Redskins have scored 24 or more in 4 of their last 5. They nearly knocked of New Orleans two weeks ago and are off of a satisfying win in Oakland. They now face their long time bitter rival that has to have their confidence shaken. The national limelight provides an excellent spot for an upset much as it did this past Monday for San Francisco against Arizona. The Giants feasted on weak competition during their 5-0 start (including as 23-17 opening game win over Washington). The Giants are just 2-6 in their last 8 games and just 1-7 ATS. Meanwhile Washington has covered 5 straight with 2 outright wins and the 3 losses were by 1, 3 and 3 points. They'll continue their fine late season play here. Washington wins 23-20.

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