4-STAR Cleveland +2 over KANSAS CITY – The Browns have something to build on. After a 13-6 win over Pittsburgh on Thurs- day night, momentum is on Cleveland’s side even though it was just one game. More importantly is the extra rest and preparation Cleveland has for this one. The Browns are 4-1 ATS since 2005 with more than seven days rest and not on opening day. We expect them to use this to their advantage over a disheartened Chiefs team.
Due to the bitter cold and 30+ miles per hour winds, Cleveland only threw the ball 19 times against Pittsburgh, as Josh Cribbs was the most effective quarterback on the field. The League is 14-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since November 26, 2007 on the road the week after as a dog of less than 15 points in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average (A and p and line<15 and passes+10<=Average(passes@team and season and p:season=season) and 20071126<=date).
The Browns were a 10 point underdog in the game against the Steelers. Cleveland is 12-0 ATS (6.0 ppg) since Christmas 2004 on the road on Sunday when they were a dog of more than six points in their last game and didn’t lose by 28+ (team=Browns and A and day=Sunday and p:line>6 and p:margin>-28 and 20041225<=date).
The Browns did not commit any turnovers in that game, which was huge with moving the ball being difficult. The Browns are 10-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since November 19, 2000 as a road dog past week two the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers (team=Browns and AD and week>2 and p:turnovers=0 and NB and 20001119<=date).
The Chiefs are in a rare three game homestand, and have lost the past two. Kansas City is 0-12-2 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since December 15, 2002 as no more than a eight point favorite in week 14 and beyond when they played at home last game.
Kansas City has now lost and failed to cover in their last three games. The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since November 21, 1999 within five of pick at home when they lost and failed to cover their last two games (team=Chiefs and H and -5<=line<=5 and p:L and pp:L and p:ATSL and pp:ATSL and 19991121<=date).
The difficulty of Arrowhead stadium is currently gone, isn’t it? While normal the advantage of playing three straight at home would be a big advantage, with a disheartened fan base that has seen losses the last two weeks, a road trip might be what the Chiefs need, and not status quo. Look for the Browns to take advantage of a team going through the motions.
SBB PREDICTION: Cleveland 17, KANSAS CITY 13

4.5-STAR Arizona and Detroit Over 46.5 – Detroit’s defense is looking miserable right now. Last week, they allowed 48 points to a Ravens team that had not scored more than 17 in regulation in five weeks. A few weeks ago, they allowed the Browns to score 37 points. Look for Arizona alone to get close to this total.
The SportsBook Breakers Team Trend of the Week (see pg. 7 for more details) features this game this week. The trend reads, the Cardi- nals are 23-0 OU since November 17, 2002 when facing a team that has averaged at least 33 passes season-to-date not on a Monday, if they weren’t more than a five point favorite last game (team=Cardinals and A and day!=Monday and p:line>-5.5 and 33asses@o:team and season) and 20021117<=date).
This is the Cardinals final road tilt of the regular season of the season, as they play at home the final two weeks. Arizona is 11-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since October 27, 2002 on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks (team=Cardinals and A and n:H and nn:H and week+2=nn:week and 20021027<=date).
Unbelievably, Arizona turned over the ball seven times in their 24-9 loss to San Francisco. The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (8.1 ppg) since November 17, 2002 on the road the week after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers (team=Cardinals and A and 4<=p:TO and 20021117<=date).
The Cardinals offense is rarely held down like this and they’ve responded the next game. Arizona is 7-0 OU (8.6 ppg) since Decem- ber 08, 2002 the week after scoring fewer than 10 points on the road (team=Cardinals and points<10 and p:A and 20021208<=date).
Detroit’s offense has struggled offensively, scoring less than expected in three straight games. The Lions are 7-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since Oc- tober 07, 1990 as a 7+ dog when their dps was negative in their last three games (team=Lions and 7<=line and p:dps<0 and pp:dps<0 and ppp:dps<0 and 19901007<=date).
Arizona’s offense had a major hiccup last week, as the Cardinals tend to do. However, they generally bounce back strong. We expect that to occur this week.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ARIZONA 42, Detroit 20