NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW YORK JETS over Atlanta RATING: 3
NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo RATING: 4
BALTIMORE over Chicago RATING: 4
WASHINGTON over New York Giants RATING: 4
CLEVELAND over Kansas City RATING: 5
NEW YORK JETS 27 - Atlanta 16 - (1:00) -- As figured, the Jets have had their
overland way the past couple of weeks, rolling to a 424-166 RY edge vs the
Bills & Bucs. That was to be expected, as those 2 own the worst rushing "D"s
in the NFL. NY is now tied with the Ravens, Dolphins, & Jaguars in the Wild
Card race, a game behind Denver. Check Jets with 22 sacks the past 7 games,
while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total "D". Catching the Falcons off the Eagles &
Saints, is a plus. Note that Atlanta has allowed 37, 35, 28, & 34 pts in its last 4
RGs. Atlanta also 9-19 ATS as Dec dog. First RG for Falcons since Nov 22nd.
New England 24 - BUFFALO 10 - (1:00) -- Pats are becoming an afterthought,
with their lackadaisical play of late. Seven TOs in their last 3 games, losing 2 of
the 3 on the field, while losing them all to the spread. Just 1-4 ATS in division
play TY, but Brady still solid 23/11, & Welker has become just the 4th player in
NFL history with 3 straight 100-catch seasons. Bills got 183 RYs from Lynch &
Jackson at KC, but just 23 FDs for Buffalo past 2 wks, as the INT has served
them well: 3 games with 4 or more (Byrd: 9 picks). But visitor is 16-5 ATS in Bill
tilts, & Buff 5-13 ATS vs Pats. NewEngland is 21-3 ATS in series' 2nd meeting.
BALTIMORE 31 - Chicago 10 - (1:00) -- Talk about your turnarounds. The Ravens
came from a 185-yd effort in their Monday loss to the Packers, to a 548-yd
explosion vs the hapless Lions. Yes, just 14.4 ppg in their previous 5 games,
before 48 pts vs Detroit. Bears obviously miles ahead of Detroit, but note the
Ravens holding 6 of their last 7 opponents under 18 pts. Bears 1-8 ATS lately,
have run for <60 yds 3 of last 5, & Cutler checks in with 22 INTs (most for a
Bear QB since 1949). Ravens 19-2 ATS non-division HFs off a SU win, 37-14
ATS as non-division hosts, & 16-0 ATS home vs the NFC. The only way to go.
WASHINGTON 23 - New York Giants 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Now or never for the
Giants, whose fall from grace seems unending. Have dropped 6-of-8, since their
5-0 start. Are on a 1-7 ATS slide, by 88 pts, & their previously brilliant "D" has
been blasted for 32.4 ppg in that 8-game swoon. Got 391 PYs & 3 TDs from Eli
vs the Eagles, & rolled up 512 yds, but were undone by the big play, along with 4
lost fumbles. 'Skins couldn't top 17 pts in their first 8 games, but have posted 27,
24, 30, & 34 pts in 4 of their 5 outings since. Posted 8 sacks vs Oakland, & rank
9th in total "D". Gave NY all it could handle in opening week loss. A revenge call.
Cleveland 20 - KANSAS CITY 10 - (1:00) -- Hooray! Browns now 2-11 this year,
while compiling 4 FDs & a TD in those 2 efforts. So, 4 straight covers for the
Brownies, but still an average of only 7.8 ppg in 17 of their last 19 games. Got
yeoman work from Cribbs vs Steelers, & note 8 sacks on Ben. Third straight
HG for Chiefs, but outscored 60-23 in first 2 hosters, & the visitor is now on a
27-12 ATS run in KC contests. Cassel has thrown 6 INTs the past 2 weeks, to
more than offset Charles' overland exploits (143 yds, 7.2 ypr LW). Cleveland
7-0 ATS away vs <.250 foes, while KC is 2-10 ATS home off 2 SU/ATS losses.
SO MISSISSIPPI (7-5) vs MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20
8:15 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
So Miss ....... 40.9 ...33-25 ... 22-23 .. 188-122 ...232-266 .. +11 . Mid Tenn
Mid Tenn St . 35.7 ...31-23 ... 19-19 .. 181-138 ...238-214 .. +11 . by 0.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
Yet another bowl game featuring one squad, which just about always lands in a
post-season slot, vs a team, to which such a placement surely isn't the norm.
For the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi, this marks their eighth straight
bowl season, as well as their 12th in the last 13 campaigns. And, as far as this
particular bowl is concerned, the Eagles are quite familiar - their 4th appearance
in the last 6 years. They've won all 3 previous New Orleans Bowl spots, scoring
nearly identical 31, 31, & 30 pts, while covering 2 of the 3 (NoTexas, ArkansasSt,
Troy). Last season, SoMiss finished on a 4-0 SU & ATS regular season run,
needing them all for a "bowl eligible" 6-6 slate. And that run simply carried over
to a mild OT upset of Troy, in a contest which saw them double the Trojans'
running output. This year, they are again led by RB Fletcher, altho his 85 RYpg
is decidedly below '08's 109 RYpg mark. At QB, Young has thrown for just 13
TDs, but also only a single INT. And once again the Eagles finished with a rush:
just 1 pt from a 6-0 ATS run. For the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State,
this marks only their 2nd bowl contest (31-14 loss to CentMich in the '06 Motor
City). They have been without peer in their current 6-game run, both SU & ATS,
covering those half-dozen games by a cumulative 78 pts, altho it must be stated
that that run came vs SunBelt foes with a combined 24-48 record. QB Dasher is
certainly a force which to be reckoned, as he not only leads the Raiders with
2,627 PYs & 21 TD passes (14 INTs), but also has run for 953 yds (4.8 ypr). We
just cannot see a team which has had 6 losing seasons over the last 8 years,
prevailing vs a proven bowl commodity, especially with a FG spot. Eagles again.
PROPHECY: SO MISSISSIPPI 31 - Middle Tennessee 23 RATING: 4
Pointwise Newsletter 12/20
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