League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
PITTSBURGH -2.5 Green Bay 40.5
Green Bay won the battle at the line of scrimmage last week as they out rushed Chicago 4.7ypr to 3.5ypr (146-59), out passed them 6.5yps to 5.0yps and out gained them overall, 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. Pittsburgh really struggled at lowly Cleveland, getting out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.4ypr (171-75), although about half of that was on Josh Cribbs wild cat runs, were out passed 4.2yps to 3.5yps and out gained overall, 4.5yppl to 3.5yppl. They were also sacked eight times. GB is above average running and throwing the ball at 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr and 6.7yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has really played strongly as of late, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. Meanwhile, the Steelers have started going the other direction. They still throw the ball well at 6.9yps against 6.3yps and overall on offense average 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl, making them slightly better than GB. But, on defense, they are almost an average defense now, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr but 5.6yps against 5.7yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and project about 43 points. Going back to 2002, Pittsburgh is now just 2-14 ATS when laying four or less points. The Steelers have done very well in the Roethlisberg era when laying five or more points but they struggle when they are laying a short number, generally meaning the team they are playing is as good, if not better than them. Pittsburgh has lost five straight including embarrassing losses to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland. GB seems to be getting better and better each week. While it’s a short number and Pittsburgh is still a solid team, I have to lean with the team playing better right now. GREEN BAY 24 PITTSBURGH 20
TENNESSEE -3 Miami 41.5
Miami went to Jacksonville and got the win, 14-10. They out passed Jacksonville 6.7yps to 4.2yps and out gained them overall, 5.0ypr to 4.0ypr. Tennessee dominated a bad Rams team in their 47-7 win. The Titans our rushed St. Louis 5.3ypr to 4.2ypr (160-88), out passed them 10.6yps to 3.5yps and out gained them overall 7.8yppl to 3.7yppl. The Rams were intercepted five times. Tennessee runs the ball better than Miami with 5.3ypr against 4.2ypr compared to Miami at 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr, throws the ball better at 6.2yps against 6.0yps compared to Miami at 5.3yps against 5.9yps and is better overall on offense at 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl compared to Miami, who is below average on offense at 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Miami does defend the rush better at 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr compared to Tennessee’s 4.2ypr against 4.2ypr but Tennessee does a much better job defending the pass at 6.4yps against 6.5yps compared to Miami’s 6.9yps against 6.5yps. Overall, Tennessee is slightly better on defense allowing 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl and Miami at 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Numbers favor Tennessee by five points and predict about 51 points. Tennessee qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 81-38-7. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 157-77-7. Meanwhile, Miami qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 44-19-1 and plays against them here. Vince Young should get the start here. They have won six of their last seven games, in which Young has started all of those games. The lone loss on the road to Indianapolis, who defeats everybody. Better offense, better defense, value, laying a short number with solid situations behind them. TENNESSEE 30 MIAMI 17
New England -7 BUFFALO 40.5
NE got by Carolina but the game was pretty evenly played from the line of scrimmage. They were out rushed 5.3ypr to 4.6ypr, out passed Carolina 6.0yps to 5.6yps and were out gained overall 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. Buffalo went to KC and controlled the game in their 16-10 win but the game was closer at the line of scrimmage. Buffalo was out rushed 5.8ypr to 5.7ypr although they did gain 200 yards rushing but allowed KC to rush for 152 yards. KC out passed the Bills 4.3yps to 3.3yps and overall both teams averaged 4.8yppl. KC threw the ball 25 times more to bring those numbers closer together seeing they didn’t maintain a very good average throwing the ball. NE averages 7.3yps against 6.0yps and 6.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. The Bills really struggle to throw the ball at just 5.2yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense struggles badly against the rush, allowing 171 yards and 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr. But, they have played good pass defense, allowing just 5.4yps against 5.9yps and are average overall on defense at 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Numbers favor NE by 7.5 points and predict about 39 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Buffalo has struggled at home against NE, losing each of the last five played here by at least 13 points. NEW ENGLAND 24 BUFFALO 17
Arizona -12.5 DETROIT 47
Arizona went to SF and fell behind early and weren’t able to come back for that early deficit. They were out rushed 5.3ypr to 47ypr (189-85), did out pass SF 4.8yps to 3.8yps and out gained SD overall 4.8yppl to 4.5yppl. They turned the ball over seven times to only two for SF, which prevented them from coming back. Detroit brought a poor offense and defense to Baltimore and left with a 48-3 loss. They couldn’t come close to handling the physical style of Baltimore. They were out rushed 7.7ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed 10.4yps to 3.6yps and out gained overall 8.7yppl to 3.4yppl. Arizona is above average throwing the ball at 6.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Their rush defense has started to take a hit as they now allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit suffers badly on both offense and defense. They average just 5.0yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense, they allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Arizona by 10.5 points and predict about 47 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Fitzgerald is questionable in this game while Matthew Stafford is out and Calvin Johnson is questionable. They lost Kevin Smith for the season last week. Detroit is getting worse as the season progresses and losing key bodies as well. I would expect Arizona to be focused for this game after last weeks debacle in SF. ARIZONA 31 DETROIT 17
PHILADELPHIA -8.5 San Francisco 42.5
Philly won a shootout at NY last week, 45-38. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 3.2ypr but out passed the Giants 10.2yps to 9.2yps. Overall, they were even at the line of scrimmage with both teams averaging a whopping 7.1yppl. Four Giant turnovers and allowing Philly to return a punt for a touchdown did them in. SF mauled Arizona early and often and used seven Cardinal turnovers to prevent Arizona from coming back from an early deficit. SF out rushed Arizona 5.3ypr to 4.7ypr (189-85), were out passed 4.8yps to 3.8yps and out gained slightly overall, 4.8yppl to 4.5yppl. SF is above average running the ball at 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but well below average throwing the ball at 5.3yps against 6.2yps. They are much better recently throwing the ball with Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree. Overall, they average 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense continues to play well, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They will be challenged this week against a good Philly offense that averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is also very tough, allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Philly by 8.5 points and predict about 44 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. SF is able to put points on the board better than they have been with Smith and Crabtree now in the lineup. They’ll face a stiff test in this game against an aggressive Philly defense but they typically stay competitive in games, evidenced by just one loss by more than seven points this year. PHILADELPHIA 24 SAN FRANCISCO 20
NY JETS -5 Atlanta
Atlanta played a great game against NO last week despite missing key personnel but came up short. They out rushed the Saints, 4.2ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed them 8.7yps to7.2yps and out gained them overall, 7.0yppl to 5.8yppl. The Jets dominate an inferior Bucs team in their 26-3 victory. They out rushed TB 4.2ypr to 2.2ypr, out passed them 5.4yps to 2.3yps and out gained them overall 4.6yppl to 2.2yppl. Atlanta has become an average team on offense without Michael Turner and Matt Ryan. They average 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has been the sore spot all year as they allow 7.2yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl overall. The Jets live on their running game and defense as they average 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr (169 yards rushing per game) but just 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl overall. The defense allows just 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.7yps against 6.1yps and 4.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Numbers favor the Jets by 8.5 points and predict about 38 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Mark Sanchez will get the start in this game. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are game time decisions. Atlanta is coming off of three straight home games and they haven’t fared well on the road against above .500 teams this year. They have lost by 16, 16, 8 and 3 points on the road against above .500 teams. Also, throw in a loss at Carolina by nine points. They did defeat SF on the road. Jets rush the ball well and have a much better defense, which is a recipe for success. NY JETS 23 ATLANTA 16
BALTIMORE -11 Chicago 40.5
The Ravens dominated lowly Detroit 48-3 last week. They out rushed them 7.7ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed them 10.4yps to 3.6yps and out gained them overall 8.7yppl to 3.4yppl. Chicago lost to GB and although the game was close, they were beaten at the line of scrimmage and Jay Cutler tossed two more interceptions. Chicago was out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.3ypr (146-59), out passed 6.5yps to 5.0yps and out gained overall 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. The Bears are falling apart on offense. They average just 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. And, their once proud defense is just average, allowing 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Baltimore averages 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl overall. Numbers favor Baltimore by 11 points and predict about 40 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Ravens are typically bullies in these types of games – above .500, laying more than a touchdown against a team below .500 – as they are now 14-2 ATS at home since 2000. During those 16 games, they have allowed the opponent to score more than 10 points in just 3 of those 16 games. At the same time, they have scored at least 22 or more points in 13 of those 16 games. Don’t see Chicago competing here. BALTIMORE 26 CHICAGO 10
KANSAS CITY -2 Cleveland 37
KC lost at home to Buffalo but didn’t play badly at the line of scrimmage. They out rushed Buffalo 5.8ypr to 5.7ypr, although they did allow 200 yards rushing (gained 152 themselves), out passed Buffalo 4.3yps to 3.3yps (202-73) but did throw the ball 25 times more. Overall, they were even at 4.8yppl to 4.8yppl. Four more Matt Cassell interceptions did them in. Cleveland shocked Pittsburgh on Thursday night last week in their 13-6 victory. There was nothing fluky about their win as they dominated Pittsburgh. They out rushed them 4.6ypr to 3.4ypr (171-75), out passed them 4.2yps to 3.5yps and out gained them overall, 4.5yppl to 3.5yppl. They also sacked Pittsburgh eight times. As bad as KC is, they do face a team that is actually as bad or maybe even worse than them. KC averages just 4.6yps against 6.0yps but Cleveland averages just 4.2yps against 5.8yps. Overall on offense KC averages just 4.3yppl against 5.2yppl but Cleveland averages just 4.1yppl against 5.1yppl. That makes KC’s offense ever so slightly better. On defense, both teams allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr and the KC pass defense allows a not so good 7.2yps against 6.5yps while Cleveland allows 7.1yps against 6.3yps. Overall, KC allows 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl, while Cleveland allows 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Cleveland brings an ever so slightly better defense, making these teams about even. Numbers favor KC by three points and predict about 36 points. Cleveland qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 44-19-1 and plays against them here. KC qualifies in a contrary situation, which is a remarkable 66-18-4, including 43-4-3 since 1995. The situation is 2-0 so far this year. KC should get Bowe back this week at WR. This is as good a spot for KC as they have had all year long. KANSAS CITY 24 CLEVELAND 14
Houston -10.5 ST LOUIS 43
Houston got a badly needed win to stay in the playoff hunt. They smoked Seattle 34-7 by out passing the Seahawks 9.4yps to 5.6yps and out gaining them overall 6.7yppl to 4.5yppl. The Rams were blown out at Tennessee 47-7. They were out gained 5.3ypr to 4.2ypr (160-88), out passed 10.6yps to 3.5yps and out gained overall 7.8yppl to 3.7yppl. They also threw five interceptions. Houston continues to struggle to run the ball at just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but they do throw the ball well at 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has improved and are just slightly below average for the season at 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. The Rams continue to run the ball well at 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but average just 4.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. On defense, they allow 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Houston by 10.5 points and predict about 39 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. The Rams are a mess. Nobody knows who will start at quarterback this week. They cut OL Richie Incognito last week after a series of 15 yard penalties. A number of players are believed to have come down with H1N1 this week and may miss this game. Houston has played a lot of good teams on the road this year. The only poor team they faced, Buffalo, they defeated by 21 points. The Rams have lost all but two of their home games by at least 10 points. They lost to Arizona by only eight points but were down by much more than that at halftime and then Kurt Warner got hurt and didn’t come back in. They also lost to the Saints by five points. A lot of points to be laying on the road for a team like Houston but no other way to play this at this time. HOUSTON 27 ST LOUIS 10
SAN DIEGO -6.5 Cincinnati 43.5
Cincinnati went to Minnesota and their offense struggled badly as they were beaten badly by the Vikings, 30-10. They out rushed Minnesota 5.0ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed 5.6yps to 3.1yps, throwing for just 91 yards. Overall, they were out gained 4.7yppl to 4.0yppl. SD got out to a lead at Dallas and held on but they were out gained at the line of scrimmage. They were out rushed 4.0ypr to 2.4ypr, did out pass Dallas 8.1yps to 7.7yps but were out gained overall, 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl. A key goal line stand in the second quarter and a missed field goal by Dallas helped SD keep their lead and ultimately win the game. Cincinnati’s offense continues to struggle, especially throwing the ball, as they average just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and overall on offense 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense remains above average at 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. SD doesn’t run the ball well at 3.2ypr against 4.2ypr but they don’t have to when they are averaging 8.1yps against 6.3yps. Overall, on offense they average 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is average at 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. Numbers favor SD by six points and predict about 45 points. SD qualifies in a late season situation, which is 103-57-4 but Cincinnati qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 560-422-30. I’ll lean towards Cincinnati but it’s a weak lean. SAN DIEGO 24 CINCINNATI 21
DENVER -14 Oakland 37
Oakland saw their party come crashing down last week as soon as Bruce Gradkowski left the game. Enter Jamarcus Russell and the old Raider offense appeared. They were out rushed 3.7ypr to 2.7ypr, out passed 6.3yps to 3.9yps and out gained overall 5.1yppl to 3.4yppl. They were also sacked eight times last week. Denver lost at Indy but came out ahead in the final stats. They fell behind 21-0 but then limited Indy to no drive of more than four plays until Indy put together a long drive near the end of the game for their final touchdown. Denver out passed Indy 6.0yps to 5.2yps and out gained them overall 4.8yppl to 4.5yppl. Oakland averages just 4.6yps against 5.9yps and 4.3yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense is allowing 4.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Denver is average on offense at 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl but their pass defense allows just 5.2yps against 6.5yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Denver by 18 points and predict about 32 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Denver has played a tough schedule this year but when they have played cupcakes like Oakland, they have taken care of business. They have won their three games against bad teams by 21, 20 and 31 points, including that 20 point over Oakland on the road earlier in the year. In those games, they have averaged 31 points while allowing an average of 7 points. With Gradkowski out and Charlie Frye in for Oakland, I see more of the same. DENVER 31 OAKLAND 10
SEATTLE -6.5 Tampa Bay 39.5
TB was throttled at home by the Jets last week, 26-3. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 2.2ypr, out passed 5.4yps to 2.3yps and out gained overall 4.6yppl to 2.2yppl. Seattle was also beaten badly at Houston last week, 34-7. They were out passed 9.4yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall 6.7yppl to 4.5yppl. TB averages just 5.0yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl .On defense, they struggle at 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Seattle is well below average on offense averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.5yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense is below average defending the pass at 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Seattle by 4.5 points and predict about 39 points. TB qualifies in a general league situation, which is 51-22-1. Seattle will be without Nate Burelson this week, while Kellen Winslow did not practice today and is listed as questionable. TB has lost by 13, 3, 3 and 10 points on the road against less than .500 teams this year. They also lost by just two points at Miami. Seattle has defeated similar competition to TB at home this year by 28 and 12 points. Value and situations lie with TB but trends lie with Seattle, which is enough to keep me off this game as a best bet. SEATTLE 21 TAMPA BAY 17
Minnesota -9.5 CAROLINA 43
The Vikings bounced back strongly last week in their 30-10 win over Cincinnati following their poor performance at Arizona the week before. They were out rushed 5.0ypr to 3.8ypr (although gained 142 yards to 119 for Cincinnati), out passed the Bengal’s 5.6yps to 3.1yps, including limiting Cincinnati to just 91 yards passing. Overall, they out gained Cincinnati 4.7yppl to 4.0yppl. Carolina fought hard at NE but came up short. They out rushed NE 5.3ypr to 4.6ypr (but out gained 185-126), were out passed 6.0yps to 5.6yps and out gained NE overall 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. Three NE turnovers kept Carolina in the game. Minnesota averages 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl, making them average on defense. Carolina is rushing the ball well at 5.8ypr against 5.4ypr but just 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense struggles against the rush, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Minnesota by just six points and predict about 45 points. Carolina qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 80-32-3. Carolina has been pretty competitive in their games this year when they aren’t turning the ball over and Matt Moore has done a better job of protecting the ball than Delhomme did. But, Carolina is missing both their offensive tackles and they don’t defend the rush well. If I could get 11 points in this game I would make Carolina a play. MINNESOTA 27 CAROLINA 20
Sixth Sense 12/20
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