[joey]

GAME: North Carolina @ Texas Dec 19, 2009 2:00PM SPORT: College Basketball Picks PICK: North Carolina Offered at: 7 WSEX REASON FOR PICK: 4* #729 NORTH CAROLINA over TEXAS

The oddsmakers are giving Rick Barnes and his Longhorns a significant home court advantage in Texas Stadium for a setting that may provide precious little of it. And that leaves excellent value here to take a talented North Carolina team that will be awfully hard to take out of a game, especially given the way that the early-seasons schedule has the Tar Heels far more toughened to this point than the favorite.

First the court. Yes it will be a partisan Longhorn crowd, but this is a three-hour trip to play a “home” game, and the players were not sleeping in their own beds on Friday night. They have never played a game on this court, and we also question the impact of the crowd in such a cavernous setting. Jerry Jones had originally been aiming to sell 75,000 tickets for this game, but after those delusions of grandeur went away they reduced the seating capacity to 46,753, and they expect a crowd of around 35,000. That will not have the impact of what an audience less than half that size would mean in Austin, and it should not bother a Tar Heel team that is accustomed to playing in hostile environments.

This will be the 225th North Carolina game with Roy Williams on the sidelines, and only eight times in that span have the Tar Heels lost by more than seven points in regulation. They have already competed against four teams (Michigan State, Syracuse, Ohio State and Kentucky) that are better than anyone Texas has faced, and while they do bring some issues with their half-court offense against this class of defense, they are going to compete hard for the full 40 minutes, with enough athleticism, size, depth and moxie to be scrambling after every rebound and every loose ball. That makes it difficult for Texas to ever build much of a margin, and even if the Longhorns can the back-door remains open throughout because of their awful 61.6 percent free throw shooting. Yes, they do get Jai Lucas eligible today, but that also brings along chemistry issues, and that is a particular problem today, as they face the culture shock of running into players just as big and as quick as they are for the first time this season.

[goceltics]

Morning Joey. Any help here with Malinsky CFB and 6* NBA today. Thanks in advance. GoCeltics.

[bookie]

Morning Joey. Any help here with Malinsky CFB and 6* NBA today. Thanks in advance. GoCeltics.

+1

I know Malinsky is down on Portland, so my best guess on the NBA is Orlando--that is just a guess and would love to see the write-up.

In another thread Ericg320 says his CFB play is Wyoming.

[joey]

6* #704 ORLANDO over PORTLAND

We started to see that Orlando was moving to NBA elite status LY when
the Magic began to take losing very seriously. Over the past two
seasons they are now 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS when playing at home off of
a loss, beating the spread by a collective 108 points in those games,
and we were along for many of the rides. We saddle up again here, as
they begin a five-game home stand off of that dismal 104-86 loss at
Miami on Wednesday, a stretch in which they will not leave the state
in over three weeks. A comfort zone of a schedule stretch like that
can help to build a chemistry for a team still fitting Vince Carter
and Jason Williams into the mix, and having two full days to steam
off of that ugly loss to the Heat means a lot if they use it the
right way. We believe that they will, with virtually the entire
roster showing a level of frustration.

We can start with Stan Van Gundy on the sidelines - <i>"The reality
is that if you want to talk about being a championship
contender?.that can't be good enough for you."</i> From Vince Carter
- <i>"We're trying to accomplish something bigger than just winning
games, so we have to come to play every night."</i> And J. J. Redick
- <i>?Every guy has to say to himself, ?What do I need to do to get
better???</i> It tells us that the mentality that has had them
bouncing back so well off of losses should absolutely be there
tonight. And that is bad news for a limited Portland roster.

We lost a frustrating 5* ticket against the Trail Blazers on Thursday
that did not have to be ? Phoenix had them down by 11 in the fourth
quarter, but Nate McMillans?s team had a major role of the dice, with
Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless scoring 41 points off of the bench,
knocking down 6-10 from 3-point range. That win helps to set up this
low price range, but with so many key cogs missing from the roster it
is not something that is going to repeat, especially with only Friday
off to make one of the longest trips in the league, losing three
hours in the time zone transition as well. And in a game that could
easily get away, McMillan may choose to not chase all that hard, with
a more realistic chance to win at Miami on Sunday.

Orlando does not have many weaknesses, and those few that the Magic
do have do not come into play tonight. Dwight Howard?s free throw
shooting? Not an issue, because the Trail Blazers do not have any
fouls to five up front. The non-existent defense of Jason Williams?
Portland can not attack because of the struggles of Blake and Andre
Miller at the point. All of the pieces fall in place for an Orlando
blowout in this one.

[joey]

4* 201 WYOMING over FRESNO STATE

game was +12.5 when released tuesday

Through the years double-figure underdogs in the minor bowl games
have been a nice portfolio by themselves, and we have gone along for
most of those rides. The logic is simple, but impeccable, from both
sides of the equation: 1. If you are a big favorite in a game like
this one it means that your program is of a level in which greater
things were expected from the season, and the bowl is often a
disappointment, instead of a reward; and 2. The worse a team is,
which will absolutely be reflected in the line, the more of a reward
it often turns out to be, since they are happy to have been given a
chance to keep playing.

Why don?t the oddsmakers correct for this? Because they do not have
to. The underdogs in these games look so unappetizing that the public
will rarely get involved in that direction, and as the bowl season
begins the public becomes a bigger factor in the proceedings than
during the NCAA regular season.

Which takes us to this game, and an almost textbook example of the
concept. Literally the last place that Pat Hill and his Bulldogs
wanted to play this December was here in Albuquerque. This will be
the second year in a row to travel to a site that does not generate
much interest for them, and for most of the second half of the
regular season they thought that a trip to the Hawaii Bowl was in
their grasp. It was not, even with that exciting win at Illinois in
their final game, and now the factors all compound. A return trip to
this venue to play in front of a tiny crowd does not create any
spark, and getting plugged into this matchup also means a
precariously short turnaround of only two weeks from that Illinois
trip. For a team that has played at Illinois, Wisconsin, Cincinnati
and Hawaii this season the mileage has added up as big as any we have
ever charted, and we could see it take a clear toll down the stretch,
when a worn-out rushing defense allowed at least 230 yards overland
to each of the last five opponents. Now that defense does not get any
time to regenerate, which leaves a flat and vulnerable favorite for
this setting.

Wyoming brings the prototype of the ?Play On? underdog. The Cowboys
did not harbor bowl aspirations in Dave Christensen?s first season,
but gutted out enough close wins to qualify, and with their schedule
ending on November 27th there is plenty of time to get fresh and
prepare. That means a lot for an offense that has gone to a new
playbook, and there is the benefit of having basically another full
fall practice, which particularly helps with true FR Austyn
Carta-Samuels at QB. There is plenty of operating room for this
offense against the uninspiring Fresno defense (97th in Total
Defense, 111th against the Run, and a dead last 120th in Sacks), and
the defense can also bring some park, with that all-SR DL of Mitch
Unrein, Fred Givens and John Fletcher that has started together
almost since day one of their careers getting a chance to close out
in style in their first bowl appearance (from Fletcher - <i>"It makes
all of it worth it -- the winter conditioning and the two-a-days, all
that blood and sweat and tears that we've put in, it's all worth it,"
senior captain and defensive tackle John Fletcher told the Casper
Star-Tribune. "We're getting the reward with a bowl game. For us
seniors, it's huge.?</i>)

Look for Wyoming to compete to win this game outright to the final
possessions, and for the Cowboys to stay comfortably with the
generous spread.