PLEASE NOTE: I'm intentionally shying away from tonight's NFL game between the Cowboys and Saints. The reason is it is a very, very difficult game to handicap and I truly believe the line is incredibly sharp -- meaning there is no value on either side. Because of that, I'm taking a pass, as I would never issue a premium selection on a game that I'm not personally playing myself.


20 DIME - WEST VIRGINIA (minus the points vs. Cleveland State)

10 DIME - WYOMING (plus the points vs. Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl)



West Virginia


BREAKDOWN: Cleveland State was one of college basketball’s darlings a season ago, winning 26 games and upsetting 12th-ranked Wake Forest in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Turns out, the Vikings were a one-hit wonder. They returned just two starters from last year’s squad, and though they won three of their first four to begin the season, they’ve since lost six of their last seven, with the only win during this stretch coming against Wilberforce of the NAIA! … Meanwhile, West Virginia is ranked seventh in the nation and is off to a perfect 7-0 start, with six of those victories being double-digit blowouts (all by 18 points or more). The only team to hang with the Mountaineers to this point was Texas A&M (73-66 final on a neutral court), and A&M has been ranked the last several weeks. … The Mountaineers have had some offensive lulls in recent games (they scored just 68 points against Duquesne and 69 against Coppin State the last two games), but their defense has been superb all year, allowing just 55.1 ppg (including holding the aforementioned Duquesne and Coppin State to 39 and 43 points, respectively). On the other hand, defense is a foreign concept to Cleveland State, which gives up more than 71 ppg, including a 78-70 home loss to Robert Morris on Tuesday. At the same time, the Vikings are averaging just 60.7 ppg during their six-game losing streak to Division I opponents. … Finally, in its only game against a Top 25 opponent so far, Cleveland State got punked by Kentucky 73-49 as a 12-point underdog at a neutral site.



Wyoming (in the New Mexico Bowl)


BREAKDOWN: Wyoming was just a 6-6 football team and has one of the worst offenses of any bowl team in recent memory (in fact, the Cowboys were shut out three times this year), while Fresno State went 8-4, has the nation’s leading rusher, put up more than 34 points per game and nearly knocked off Wisconsin and Cincinnati, both on the road. So why take the points here? Because the Bulldogs have a history of laying down like, well, dogs, in mediocre bowl games against inferior competition. Consider: In its last nine bowl games, Fresno is 3-1 SU and ATS as an underdog, but 0-5 SU and ATS as a bowl favorite. Add it up and the ‘dog has won and covered eight of the Bulldogs’ last nine bowl contests (with seven outright upsets). That includes Fresno’s 40-35 loss to Colorado State as a two-point favorite in last year’s New Mexico Bowl …. The Bulldogs have been a brutal favorite overall in recent years, cashing just eight times in their last 30 as a chalk while going 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a double-digit favorite. Meantime, Wyoming closed the coach Dave Christensen’s first year on a 7-2 ATS run (6-2 ATS as a ‘dog). … There’s no telling what Fresno State’s mindset is going to be playing in the same bowl game for the second straight year against an opponent that needed a one-point win in its final game just to get to .500 and earn a bowl game. At the same time, Wyoming is stoked to be in its first bowl game since 2004 – when, ironically, it upset UCLA 24-21 as a 12½-point underdog

AS ALWAYS POINTS WOULD BE GREAT!