Prediction: Texas
Reason: I'm laying the points with TEXAS. We don't find the Tar Heels as this big an underdog very often - particularly on a "neutral court" vs. a non-conference opponent. That will have many quick to "grab the points" here. However, Texas is no ordinary non-conf. opponent (Longhorns are 9-0 and among the best teams in the country) and this isn't exactly a "neutral" court. Indeed, its being played at Cowboys Stadium. Naturally, the Longhorns will have the fully support of the crowd. Those backing UNC will point to the fact that the Longhorns have prepared for this game by playing a few cupcakes. That's only partly true though. Yes, the Longhorns' last few opponents have been very weak. However, prior to that, they'd faced the likes of Iowa, Pittsburgh, USC and Rice. While none of those teams are as talented as UNC, they're still not 'cupcakes.' NONE of them have been able to compete with what Texas brings to the table. Indeed, the Longhorns have won every single game by double-digits. Overall, they're outscoring opponents by a whopping 85.4 to 53.8 margin. Texas is shooting 51.9%. Opponents are shooting 31.6%. While the Longhorns may have tuned up for this game with a few weaklings, at least they've been playing. UNC has only played one game since losing at Kentucky on December 5th. That was against Presbyterian - hardly an opponent at all. The Tar Heels are 1-2 SU/ATS the last three times that they were listed as a "neutral court" underdog in the +6.5 to +9 range. On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Longhorns are 9-4-1 ATS (13-1 SU) when listed as a "neutral court" favorite in the +6.5 to +9 range. The bottom line is that I feel the Longhorns are currently the deeper and stronger team. While the Heels have shown some weaknesses, the Longhorns have dominated all comers. This is their chance to really gain some respect and playing in their home state, on National TV, I look for them to make the most of it. *8
Ben Burns 12/19
Reply With Quote