Wyoming +10.5 over Fresno State

Fresno State is the sucker bet of 2009. The public has jumped all over Fresno State after an 8-4 season, forgetting the weak schedule and atrocious defense played by the Bulldogs throughout the season. Yes, Wyoming probably doesn’t deserve to play in this game with a 6-6 record but to borrow a quote from The Wire “Deserves got nothing to do with it.” Wyoming managed to win three games on the road and come out of MWC conference play with a respectable 4-4 record. They struggled to score points against Texas Christian, Brigham Young, and Texas but managed to score 30 against comparable Fresno State defenses like UNLV and Florida Atlantic. Fresno State allowed opponents to rack up 411 yards per game and ranked third to last in the FBS with only seven interceptions the entire season. They gave up 52 points to Illinois in their final game of the regular season and ranked dead last in the FBS with an astounding 6.2 rush yard per carry average against them. Simply put, the concerns about the Wyoming offense don’t apply to this game and that’s the first reason to seriously consider backing them. Fresno State will score no matter who they play but it’s the way they score you need to be concerned with. RB Ryan Mathews led the NCAA’s in rushing yards with 1664 and you can bet Fresno State will showcase him on national television. Fresno State’s run first offense will yield points but keep the clock moving and combined with the ease the Cowboys will have scoring it’s going to be very unlikely for this game to get out of hand. The style of offense Fresno State runs along with their horrific defense makes laying 10½ points far too risky. Wyoming can win this game outright with a few breaks but am more than happy to take the generous points on a neutral field. Play: Wyoming +10½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).