@Saints (-7) over Cowboys Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Is a Wade Phillips Deathwatch in full swing? Two years removed from a 13-3 record and an NFC East title the speculation is beginning to build. In crunch time the Cowboys' defense looked slow and toothless losing at home 20-17 to San Diego on Sunday. Up 17-10 with the ball on their 11 yard line with 9:13 to go the Chargers marched 73 yards on 15 plays in 7:17 to kick a clinching field goal. The Bolts probably would have been able to run out the clock if Dallas had not used all three of their second half timeouts. Dallas has now lost 3 of their last 5, all of them as favorites.
Still, I think Phillips gets something of a bum rap. Philips may not be a great NFL coach, but he is far better than the league's worst and he will be taking the fall in Dallas for some problems not of his own doing. Jerry Jones has always been an active owner, and for most of his tenure in the Big D he has been a pretty successful one. But some of the football decisions he has made in recent years are turning the Cowboys into a Super Bowl pretender instead of a contender.
Getting hornswaggled by Detroit GM Martin Mayhew in the Roy Williams deal last year at the trading deadline is not the only mistake he has made, but it is instructive. Jones dealt 1st, 3rd and 6th round draft picks for Williams and soon found out that Mayhew was a good deal smarter than Matt Millen. Williams has all the physical tools to be a star but is an immature if good natured goofball. With a competent Tony Romo at QB Williams should catch a minimum of 80-90 balls for a healthy yards per catch. The yards per catch are there - 16.1 - but Williams has many of the same problems he had in Detroit. The biggest is his inability to run disciplined routes. With the Lions he had a penchant for not breaking off routes when he was supposed to. And whaddya know, he often does the same thing in Dallas too. This is the kinda thing a real GM would take into account. But Jones is not a real GM. And Jones has been making plenty of similar but less obvious mistakes, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Jerry Jones likes Wade Phillips. Phillips doesn't care for the limelight and is well liked by his players. They will play hard for him. Philips also makes less money than most potential replacements would demand. But over the last 5 weeks the Cowboys have looked very much like Denver did in 1994 and Buffalo did in 2000 when Phillips' teams circled the drain. My stat model likes the Saints by 9 and the tech is in their favor too. Wade's collar will get tighter this week, and Jones deserves much of the blame. New Orleans by 14
The Max Newsletter 12/19
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