Thisseriesistiedat3-3SU/ATSwithFSUwinningthemostrecentmatchup24-7in‘97.ThePokes are bowling for the 1st time since 2004’s Las Vegas Bowl upset over UCLA, 24-21 (+12’). They were eligible in ‘06, but were passed over at 6-6. Dave Christensen became just the 2nd HC in WY history to take his tm bowling in his 1st yr (Paul Roach, ‘87). While Christensen has never been a HC in a bowl, he has plenty of bowl experience as he’s 5-2 SU/ATS in his career coaching in bowls (Mizzou, Toledo, Wash). FSU is making its 10th bowl appearance in the L/11 yrs (missed in ‘06) and the Bulldogs are 10-8 SU and 6-7 ATS all-time in bowl gms. HC Hill is in his 13th ssn at FSU and picked up his 100th career win (100-65) in the Bulldogs’ ssn finale win over Illinois and stands 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS all-time in bowls. After opening the ssn just 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS) with a very difficult schedule, FSU won 7 of its L/8 gms down the stretch (4-3-1 ATS). WY went 0-5 SU (3-2 ATS) vs bowl tms TY being outscored 34-6 and outgained 448-210 (4 of the 5 were ranked foes). FSU is 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY and in all 4 losses, it lost the TO battle (11 lost, 1 gained). Three of the 4 losses (Wisky, Boise and Cincy), however were vs tms with a combined 34-3 record and FSU outgained the trio by 473-417 ypg and out-FD’d them by an avg of 22-16. WY ranks #2 in the NCAA with 7 true frosh starting this year. They have 7 Sr’s among 12 upperclassmen starters. FSU has 4 senior starters and 18 upperclassmen.
When Christensen was hired, Poke fans were excited about returning to the wide-open spread-attacks similar to what made WY so successful in the ‘80’s and ‘90’s. NJCAA QB Benjamin began the ssn as the starter, but by gm 4 true frosh and MWC Fr POY Carta-Samuels (1st WY FOY S/’93) had taken over. Four of Carta-Samuels’ 6 wins have been the 4Q come-from-behind variety. In an effort to get the athletic Benjamin on the field, he was taking snaps at WR and at QB in trick plays. True frosh Alexander leads the RB unit and Carta-Samuels is the #3 rusher. WY enters the bowl with 3 str 100 yd rushers. The WR’s are led by Leonard who has been one of the most consistent. The OL avg 6’5” 304 with 3 Sr’s and has started every gm together but they’ve given up 35 sks (9.3%) and only opened holes for 128 rush ypg (3.4). The off ranks #107 and the D ranks #87 with the DL avg 6’3” 274 with 3 Sr’s. The DL has tallied 10.5 of the tm’s 20 sks (53%). The LB unit has 2 plyrs in the Top 25 in tkls led by Hendricks (#6 in the NCAA in tkl pg). WY is #61 in our pass eff D rankings all’g 225 ypg (64%) with a 16-12 ratio. WY’s sp tms rank #27 and avg 22.5 on KR but give up 22.7 and 13.9 on PR and only give up 6.0.
FSU’s OL (6’5” 306 avg) has 52 comb sts and does a very serviceable job in a balanced off (232 ypg rush, 204 ypg pass). QB Colburn had big shoes to fill TY replacing Brandstater but was poised in the pocket. He turned in some big outings when needed such as a career-high 362 yds vs Boise and hit a perfect 14-14 vs Idaho. HC Hill’s decision to make RB Mathews his feature back TY proved to be wise as Mathews responded by becoming the nation’s leading rusher in ypg (151 ypg), but he missed the LT gm with a concussion. Fresno has 5 game-changing caliber WR’s. The unit is somewhat under- utilized in a run-first based off but has still come up big when needed. FSU’s DL (6’3” 255 avg) has 44 comb sts but had its struggles TY both stopping the run and pressuring the QB. The Bulldogs all’d 6.2 ypc (212.4 rush ypg) and FSU finished dead last in the NCAA in sks (9) with the DL accounting for 8.5 of them. The secondary all’d 199.2 ypg (55.3%) with a 21-7 ratio but despite only 7 int (5 by DB’s), the ttl was more than the Bulldogs’ 5 in ‘08, 4 in ‘07 and 5 in ‘06. FSU has superb weapons in its #19 ST unitinKGoessling,PMaloneandKRJefferson.G oesslinghashit15consecFG’s(newschoolreco rd) and has made 22 of his last 24, incl 15 of 16 TY. Malone avg 45.1 ypp (38.7 net) with 16 inside the 20. KR Jefferson is #3 in the NCAA in career KR avg (29.5 ypr). FSU also has a knack for blocking kicks and S/’02, no other tm does it better as the Bulldogs lead the country with 48.
This New Mexico Bowl opens up the ‘09/’10 bowl ssn and while not a marquee game, it is a big deal to WY as they are making only their 2nd bowl appearance in 16 yrs. Looking at the intangibles in the checklist, you’ll see that Fresno comes in as a motivated squad as an underdog but when they’re the fav they have underachieved. In their 3 roles as a fav, they lost to Colorado St LY 40-35, lost to Tulsa in ‘05 31-24 and lost to Air Force in ‘00 (37-34). No question that the Bulldogs have more talent but the Cowboys are buying into HC Christensen’s program and will keep it close.
FORECAST: WYOMING (+) Fresno by 3 RATING: 3* WYOMING