Fresno is Bowling for a third straight season and for the ninth time in 10 seasons. They played in this same Bowl last season, losing 40-35 to Colorado State. Wyoming is playing in only their second Bowl in a decade and their first since 2004 when they upset UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl, ironically also as a 12 point underdog. These teams are polar opposites with Fresno winning with offense while Wyoming relies on its defense for its success. Each team played high quality foes this season with Wyoming losing to a pair of unbeatens, TCU and Texas while Fresno lost to both Cincinnati and Boise State. Of those three contests Fresno had the best effort in their 51-34 home loss to Boise, outgaining the Broncos 507-480, including 320 rushing yards in an attack featuring top RB Matthews. Fresno was also competitive in their road loss at Cincy as well as in a road loss at Wisconsin, outgaining both foes. They ended their season with a wild win at Illinois. Fresno clearly deserves to be solid favorites in this game. Wyoming should have the greater enthusiasm as Bowling is a rather infrequent experience for the Cowboy program. Fresno's better balance makes them dangerous as they both run and pass for over 200 yards. Wyoming's defensive edge statistically is not as great as might be imagined and was accomplished against weaker foes. This game handicaps as having a solid correlation between side and total with Wyoming likely covering in a low scoring contest whereas a Fresno cover more likely suggests a high scoring contest. In analyzing Bowl matchups it's common to start by making a case for the underdog. Wyoming's edges in this game may be found more in the intangibles than in the fundamentals and for that reason the preference is to back the favorite. The level of enthusiasm is slight as weather and altitude would tend to favor Wyoming. The forecast calls for Fresno State to win 38-23, makingFRESNO STATE a 2 Star Selectionand theOVER a 1 Star Selection
Rutgers in a Bowl for a fifth straight season and they've won the last three. Central Florida is in their third Bowl in five seasons and still looking for their first ever Bowl win, losing in their last Bowl appearance two seasons ago. Both teams had successful 8-4 seasons although as the ATS records show Central Florida was far better at exceeding expectations than was Rutgers. One of UCF's win came against a FCS school (Samford) while Rutgers won 2 such games (Howard and Texas Southern). Both teams lost to unbeaten foes as Rutgers was crushed by Cincinnati in their opener 47-15 at home while UCF lost in mid season at Texas 35-3. Rutgers has the stronger conference affiliation although the overall quality of the Big East has been declining in recent seasons. Rutgers' best win was arguably at UConn although they were competitive in losses to both Pitt and West Virginia. UCF's best win was over Houston and they did close the season with 4 straight covers. UCF may have the intangibles edge playing so close to home and being the underdog. Rutgers was 3-3 ATS as a Favorite this season with two outright losses. UCF was 4-1 ATS as underdogs but their only outright win was the win at home over Houston. Neither team has significant statistical edges although UCF was # 4 nationally vs the run (82 ypg). Rutgers was #95 in passing the football which means they might not be all that great in attacking UCF's #112 pass defense (much of which was 'earned' in games against the potent pass attacks of Houston and Texas). Minor bowls usually involve teams with multiple flaws and vulnerabilities and that is certainly the case here. As such underdogs often present good value when the talent is fairly even and UCF does get to recruit in their home state, attracting leftovers from Florida, Florida State and Miami. The site also works in their favor and an outright upset would not surprise. The forecast is for UCF to pull that upset, winning 24-23 and makingCENTRAL FLORIDA a 3 Star Selectionand theOVER a 1 Star Selection.
Logical Approach Newsletter 12/19
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