: SCOTT SPREITZER'S SERVICE Thursday
I have two plays for Thursday, my NFL release for Saturday, and my first bowl release, also on Saturday.

I'm taking the points with the Jaguars on Thursday night. Indy HC Jim Caldwell says he's going to play his "healthy" regulars. That leaves a lot of wiggle room, don't you think? Indy has injuries to key players on both sides of the line of scrimmage and I doubt we're going to see a lot of "regulars," as he called them, after halftime. Now, just because the Colts might bench key players doesn't mean the game will be handed to the Jaguars. They have to do more than just show up to gain the win. I believe they will. While "must win" doesn't automatically mean "will win," I do feel that the Jags are in a strong situation. Jacksonville likely needs to win their final three games for a chance reach the postseason. They do own their own destiny. Win three times and they're in. A loss down the stretch would then require help from others, otherwise they'll stay home. One of the keys to this game will be whether or not the Jags can run effectively. As everyone knows, the Colts are vulnerable against a solid ground game. They have allowed 120 yards rushing per game to their last three opponents. When Jones-Drew runs well, the Jags win more often than not, going 6-2 when he rushes for at least 76 yards. The Colts also allow a lot of receiving yardage (relatively speaking) to RBs out of the backfield. One of the things I like about this year's Jaguar offense is that even though they have a RB they can count on, they will take their shots deep down field. With Indy's DBs forced to help out against a talented RB, I believe they will be susceptible to some big aerial gains. Defensively, the Jags should and will rush Manning by attacking Indy's mediocre offensive tackles. Jacksonville's so-so pass rush will be aided by the Colts' interior linemen's inability to consistently protect Manning. Jacksonville has been quite stingy against opposing RBs. They don't allow a lot of yardage to the opposition's primary ball carrier, and slowing down Joseph Addai will put even more heat on the OTs and subsequently, Peyton Manning. Jags' HC Jack Del Rio has done a fine job game-planning for the Colts. In fact, Jacksonville has matched up well with the Colts over the years going 6-3-1 ATS in 10 meetings since 2004. And if they play up to their ability on Thursday, they should come away with the much needed outright win. Indy has been far from dominant. They have been outgained by 169 yards in their last six games, gaining less yards than the opposition on five occasions. The Colts have been out-rushed in seven straight games (minus-170 yards) and outgained through the air in three of their last five. The Colts led Denver by only five points with 2:25 to go in the game. They trailed Houston, 17-0 in the first half, then scored the game winner midway through the fourth. Indy trailed Baltimore midway through the final quarter...and everyone saw the ridiculous finish against the Patriots. The Colts escaped 20-17 against Houston in their first meeting with the Texans, and scored a game winning TD against SFO in the fourth quarter. That's the "skinny" on six of their last seven games. This is a beatable team, especially if the regulars are sidelined in the second half. Finally, besides being a 67% cover against the Colts, the Jags are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 as a home pup, including 10-2 ATS when the line is three or less (+3 at the time of this release). Look for the Jags to put an end to the Indy run. I'm taking the points with Jacksonville, my AFC South GOM.

I'm taking the points with the Suns on Thursday night. No doubt the Suns are a bit leary of going back out on the road after dropping five straight away from home. But they did get a confidence building win on Tuesday when they rocked the Spurs in Phoenix, 116-104. I believe the momentum is going to keep on building with a win in Portland. The Suns have not exactly had an easy slate, lately. The were matched up against the Cavs, Lakers, Mavs, and Nuggets in their last four roadies. So, even though Jason Richardson is nursing a minor hand injury, taking on an injured Blazer team will be a bit of a drop-off in level of competition. First of all, Rudy Fernandez is out until at least mid-January. If all else was well, Rafer Alston could fill those minutes without too big of a drop-off, overall. But Portland is also nursing an injury to Keyon Dooling (sore hip flexors) and now Devin Harris is suffering from a sore finger, not to mention a short fuse! They are of course, already without the services of Greg Oden, Jeff Pendergraph, and Patty Mills, to name a few more. Phoenix will be facing a Portland team that looks almost nothing like the one that started the season thinking 55 wins. The injuries are taking their toll. The Blazers have won just three of their last nine games outright, including losses to the Grizzlies and Knicks. They're on a 2-7-1 ATS slide in their last 10 games, overall, and the Blazers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Meanwhile, despite their recent road struggles, the Suns are 4-0 ATS as a road dog of 4 1/2 or less, and they have covered four in a row against teams with a winning record. Those three angles combine for a 12-0-1 situation. The Suns get their first road win of December, and I'm taking the points.

I'm taking the points with Central Florida on Saturday night. Just five years ago, I we would never have thought the Rutgers' football program, along with its fans, would be disappointed, and even disinterested in a bowl berth. But after getting spoiled by the Greg Schiano-era, that's exactly the case with the Scarlet Knights in 2009. Schiano was not only unhappy with his team's bowl placement because he felt his team "deserved better," but also because the game falls during finals week for his student athletes. One has to wonder if he would truly care about finals week if this were the BCS Championship game?! Meanwhile, UCF is still thrilled with any bowl invite. After all, this is just their third bowl berth in their program's relatively short history. After losing the first two, they know they have a real shot to capture the school's first bowl hardware. I believe George O'Leary's bunch is the better team right now. Rutgers' defense has taken its share of "hits" this season. They allowed 28 ppg and 322 yards per game. That defense will face one of the better-kept secrets at QB in '09, when they face 6th-year senior Brett Hodges. UCF averaged over 30 ppg and almost 400 yards per game when Hodges started under center (nine games). He has a 1,000-yard rusher behind him to keep Rutgers' honest, and loves to utilize play-action. The offensive line got healthy down the stretch, allowing just four sacks over their final three games. The defensive front seven has been outstanding. They held the opposition to 82.5 yrpg on just 2.6 ypc. And the secondary, young at the start of the season, came on down the stretch. They also have the benefit of facing Rutgers' QB Tom Savage and a shakey passing game. Part of the reason the Scarlet Knight's offense never truly found a solid consistency was because of their offensive line. Expected to be a strength this season, the unit allowed a whopping 39 sacks. The passing game may be without their leading receiver, Tim Brown. At best, he'll be much less than 100% according to reports. Brown is suffering from a lingering ankle injury and has been limited in practice. They're also a bit banged-up in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Rutgers did not finish too well, losing two of their last three games, including an ugly loss to Syracuse. Meanwhile UCF won five of their final six games, including a three game win streak to end the season. One of those victories came over then 13th-ranked Houston on 11/14. UCF covered their final four games of the season, (9-2 ATS in '09, overall), and they're 6-1 ATS the last seven times as an underdog. UCF gains a measure of revenge against the Big East, and I'm taking the points.

I'm laying the points with the Saints on Saturday night. Although I have been on a nice NFL run, I did have the Cowboys this past weekend and watched them write another chapter in their book of December meltdowns, this time against the Chargers. Dallas actually tied the game at 10 late in the third quarter, but collapsed in the fourth. After winning their 16th straight December contest, SDG QB Philip Rivers said, "You don't want to fade out in December. You want to be peaking." The Dallas Cowboys are the "poster-team" for "fading out," going just 3-8 SU in their last 11 December games. Tony Romo is now 5-10 in 15 December starts. And the struggle has become mental. It was obvious that Romo truly began to press last week when the Cowboys fell behind. He missed numerous receivers with bad passes. The Cowboys MUST run the football this week to give Romo some help, and to keep the Saints' offense off the field. Fat chance. No one has done so as of yet, and a Dallas team lacking confidence is not going to be the first, in my opinion. Defensively, the Cowboys are in a heap of trouble with or without DeMarcus Ware, who is listed as doubtful after suffering a strained neck last week. If he plays, he's not nearly 100%. Heck, he hadn't even practiced as of the time of my release (Thursday morning). If he doesn't play, the Cowboys are going to have to "bring the heat" over and over in an attempt to get pressure on Drew Brees. Let him sit in the pocket, and he and his receivers will slaughter your secondary. But blitz too often and your defense is facing the best screen-passing team in the NFL. What a choice for a team hanging onto a postseason shot by the skin of their teeth! Then, on top of it all, the Cowboys really struggle against good TEs. Jeremy Shockey is having a big year and he'll eat up man-coverage if he can go in this one. Shockey is currently listed as questionable (toe). If Shockey can't play...no problem. David Thomas has been good enough (22 receptions & 11.5 ypc) to start for most teams. Bottom line: the Saints present a horrible matchup for a desperate Cowboy team. Dallas has covered just five of their last 22 December games, including just one of their last 10. And they have dropped four in a row as a dog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. The Saints have covered 13 of their last 18 as a favorite, and they're on a perfect 5-0 ATS run as a home fave in the same line range mentioned above. The Saints, getting their first real taste of the NFL spotlight this season, seem to feel that a 16-0 regular season is extremely important. That's great news for Saint-backers...not so hot for the Cowboys. I'm laying the points with the Saints on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.