This is a very big move and extremely significant because with 2 ESPN Games...and a handful of good match-ups, this game will receive very little "volume"...And if I know this, it's obvious that the books do as well...Which is why as soon as the Wiseguys went to work laying the number with Memphis...the books had no problems adjusting...
What stuck out to me the most was that the books wouldn't put a line up on this game until very early this morning...And as soon as they did, we saw that the Wiseguys immediately felt that the line was too low...More importantly, after the first Syndicate or two bet it when the line first went up...forcing the move from -4.5 to -5...we then saw a few more come in about an hour later and lay -5...Which tells me that there are a handful of Wiseguys who all agree that the number was too low...
The books didn't take any more chances this time...and went to -6 right away...
Now don't be surprised if this line takes a dip before game-time...Especially if between now and then, this line climbs a bit more...
Because I know from experience that plenty of these Outfits will take the opportunity to limit liability, while possibly setting up a "middle"...By coming back and taking the points for a small amount before tip-off...Which will then force a late adjustment...VR
LINE PREDICTION : I would be surprised to see this line get any higher, because I know for sure that the Outfits were able to take a substantial "position" already...And I think that if they wanted a bigger one, they would have done so...Because this isn't a game that will get "volume", like we touched on above...Which means that they can't count on the betting public's money to help them get a better line than where it is right now...And because of that, I wouldn't be surprised as I stated earlier...to see this one drop a little...If you agree with the Wiseguys, you may want to sit back and wait for a possible drop...But if you disagree, then I would go ahead and grab the points now because you probably won't get much better...VR
vegas-runner | CBB Total Fri, 12/18/09 - 7:00 PM •‹
double-dime bet 533 UNC-Greensboro / 534 Akron Over 132.5 Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY OF THE DAY **
Based on last season's meeting...we are getting some extra value added to this Total...But last season, BOTH teams shot only 40-41% from the Field and there were still almost 130 pts scored...Although BOTH offenses are still shooting around the same FG % this season...the difference here will be on the defensive side of the ball...Which I believe has decline„d since last season...While on the offensive side we see that BOTH clubs have improved over their L/5 games...BOTH, in Pts Scored and FG%...And have even shot better from the FT & 3PT Lines as well...That's why this Bet has already been placed, and is my TOP "Personal Play" for Friday's action...VR
Vegas runner
Reply With Quote
