Writeup:
Montana might be the #1 seed in the I-AA playoffs, but this is because they play in an overrated Big Sky conference and they did not face any I-A opponents this season. Villanova plays in a much stronger conference as the CAA had four teams in the quarterfinals this season (Villanova, William & Mary, Richmond, New Hampshire). Appalachian State won three straight I-AA titles from 2005-2007, but the other two recent champions have both been from the CAA with James Madison in 2004 and Richmond in 2008. In fact, the Spiders defeated this same Montana team 24-7 in last year’s championship game. Montana barely won last week as Appalachian State had the ball on the 2 yard line, but failed to score a tying touchdown on the final play of the game. It was a difficult scheduling situation for Appalachian State as the Mountaineers were playing back-to-back road games, while Montana had the advantage of staying home for all three playoff games. Montana was fortunate in their first two playoff wins this season as they overcame a 48-21 deficit against South Dakota State in the first round and then benefited from an incredible 10 turnovers by Stephen F. Austin in the quarterfinals. My power ratings favor Villanova by 4 points tonight on a neutral field, so we get line value, and the Wildcats outscored their opponents by +18.4 points per game this season, while Montana only outscored their opponents by +18.2 ppg, despite playing a schedule that was -5.0 points per game weaker on average, making an adjusted line of Villanova as a 5½-point favorite tonight based on opponents played. The Wildcats have the better rushing attack as they average a 5.1-2.3 yards per carry edge, while Montana is just 4.2-3.0 ypr over their weaker opponents. Villanova also has the better defense, permitting just 13.6 points per game and only 4.6 yards per play, while Montana allows 18.7 ppg and 4.8 yppl. The weather forecast is calling for wet and cold conditions tonight, which favor the team with the better rushing attack and defense. Play VILLANOVA (-).
Steve Merril's picks anyone??
Originally Posted by pencey99
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