Indy jumped out to a 21-0 lead over Denver last week, allowed the Broncos back at 21-16 and then scored the final touchdown to win 28-16. The final stats are interesting because Denver out passed Indy 6.0yps to 5.2yps and overall, out gained Indy 4.8yppl to 4.5yppl. Indy was dominating the game after their first three scores when they were leading 21-0 but the longest drive they had after those first three scores was a four play drive, other than the final score of the game, where they drove 14 plays and 80 yards. Peyton Manning was also intercepted three times. Jacksonville lost at home to Miami 14-10 and were out passed 6.7yps to 4.2yps by a Miami passing attack that isn’t that good. Overall, they were out gained 5.0yppl to 4.0yppl. For the season, Indy averages just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been great this year, allowing 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville rushes the ball well, at 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr and is averaging 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The defense has been good against the rush at 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr but the pass defense has been poor, allowing 6.8yps against 6.0yps and overall they allow 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. Indy qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 78-39-7 and plays against them here. Jacksonville also qualifies in a 52-25-1 situation. Jacksonville also qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 132-68-5 and 560-422-30. Numbers favor Indy by 9.5 points and predict about 42 points. Rasheed Mathis may come back for Jacksonville this week. For Indy, they have said they will play their starters who are healthy. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis didn’t practice this week and are listed as questionable. It’s hard to tell if they will play or not. If there were no questions about whom and how long starters will play for Indy, this line would be closer to seven. If that were the case I would consider Jacksonville because of the situations but without a fair line, it is very hard to play Jacksonville. And, it’s hard to tell if it is a fair line because we don’t know who is and isn’t playing for Indianapolis. I’ll call for a close game but can’t make it a best bet. INDIANAPOLIS 21 JACKSONVILLE 20
Sixth Sense 12/17
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