Nick Parsons 12/17
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Dec 17 2009 8:20PM
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars Your pick will be graded at: 3 WSEX EXPERT: Nick Parsons TITLE: *10* #1 NFL SHOCKER OF SEASON! 22-10/69% REASON FOR PICK: With their collective "backs-against-the-wall" I look for the Jaguars to do just enough to come away with the ATS victory or outright win in this one:
The Colts have clinched home field advantage and a first round bye throughout the Playoffs and have impressive SU and ATS stats this year; one team they've always had difficulty with though is the Jaguars; Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS its last ten vs. Jacksonville.
Although Colts coach Jim Caldwell insists that finishing the regular season undefeated isn’t a top priority, he plans to play his starters tonight.
On the other side of the field: Unlike the Colts, the Jaguars (7-6) have plenty riding on their three remaining games.
With a 6-3 conference record, Jacksonville would earn a playoff spot by winning all three contests. A loss would result in the Jaguars needing help to avoid missing the postseason for the eighth time in 10 years.
Jacksonville may be 2-7 ATS its last nine, but its 4-2 SU its last six and 5-1 SU its last six in front of the hometown faithful.
Bottom line: Despite desperately needing this victory to keep its post-season drive alive, and the added motivation of wanting to be the first team to hand the Colt's a loss, the Jaguars will also be playing with "revenge" after their 14-12 season opening loss against the Colts.
Manning looked shaky against Denver; he threw three early TD's, then three INT's, before leading the Colts on a late TD drive to preserve the win; and that was in front of the hometown crowd.
With an offense that revolves around the run, the Jaguars typically need Maurice Jones-Drew to play well to be successful; they are 6-2 when Jones-Drew rushes for at least 76 yards, although one of those losses came Sept. 13, when he ran for 97 yards and a TD.
However, in this big game at home, Jones-Drew has a huge opportunity to become a big part of this contest; Indianapolis has been vulnerable against the run lately, yielding an average of 119.7 yards in the last three games.
It certainly won't be a blowout, but there are simply too many significant factors working in favor of the Jaguars on Thursday night.
No matter what they say to the media/public, the Colts have to have a small amount of complacency buried in their sub-conscience somewhere that if they are hit hard early in Thursday's game, they will be more likely to take one on the chin and roll over; look for JACKSONVILLE to improve to 5-1 ATS vs. division opponents this season and for Indianapolis to fall to 3-3 ATS vs. division opponents!
*10*
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Originally Posted by Ringer
