[REGENT197]

Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Under

When thinking of the Wizards, most of us tend to think of a high-scoring team which doesn't know the meaning of the word defense. That hasn't really been the case this year though, particularly when they've played outside the nation's capital.

Overall, the Wizards are averaging 97.6 and allowing 101. That ranks them in the bottom half of the league in both categories. However, on the road, they're averaging just 93.1 points on offense, 4th worst in the league, while allowing a fairly respectable 99.9. That equates to their road games averaging 193 points. That's translated into a very profitable 9-1-1 (or 9-2, depending on when/where one played total of their 12/6 game at Detroit) UNDER record in their 11 road games. Only two of their 11 road games have finished with greater than 193 combined points.

Admittedly, the Kings have been involved in higher-scoring games. However, that wasn't the case last night as they combined with Portland for a mere 183 points, scoring only 88 themselves. Off that poor offensive effort, I believe that tonight's number may be a little too high.

The Kings have seen the UNDER go 17-11 the last 28 times that they played a home game with a total of 210 or greater, including 2-1 this season. Given their previously mentioned stats, its not surprising to learn that the Wizards have seen the UNDER go 2-0 when playing a game with a total of 210 or greater. Overall, the Wizards have seen the UNDER go 4-1 in their games against teams from the Western Conference.

Even though these teams have played a few high-scoring games recently, the UNDER is still 9-3 the last 12 times that they faced each other here at Sacramento. While I don't feel as strongly about this one as I do about my "ESPN Blue Chip," I still feel that the 'under' is worth some consideration.

[ramos94583]

BEN BURNS

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Dec 16 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: under
Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and Oklahoma City to finish UNDER the total. I played on the Mavericks to finish below the total in their most recent game. That resulted in a relatively easy winner as they combined with the Hornets for just 184 points. It was the fifth time in their last six games that the Mavs had combined with their opponent for less than 200 points - the other had 203 and that was against high-scoring Phoenix - a game that had a total of 216.5. Overall, four of those six games stayed below the total with an average combined score of only 186. The Thunder have also been involved in a number of low-scoring games recently. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 their last four games. Even though they've played some high-scoring teams, like Denver and Golden State, none of those games finished with greater than 196 points. The Mavs haven't played at team from the Northwest Division since way back on 11/13. That games, which came vs. Minnesota, produced a mere 166 combined points. Including that result, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 64-33 their last 97 games vs. foes from the Northwest. Given those stats, its not surprising to learn that the Mavs have seen the UNDER go 6-2 the last eight times that they faced the Thunder/Sonics. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 12-5 the last 17 meetings in this series. That includes a 8-1 mark when the Thunder/Sonics were the home team. The Mavs only previous trip to OKC saw the teams combine for 183 points. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. Note that the total has climbed a couple of points from its opener, providing us with some additional line value. *8 blue chip


BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with UAB. The Bearcats have already recorded some big wins and are certainly worthy of respect. That said, given the situation and venue, I believe that the wrong team is favored in this one.

Cincinnati is off a very tough double-OT loss vs. rival Xavier on Sunday. That was their first true road game and even Coach Cronin acknowledged: "My guys lost their cool. We were concerned about everything except executing offensively and defensively..." That type of loss can be tough to recover from, particularly as they battled back only to eventually lose. Now, they take on a well-rested UAB team which has won seven straight games and which is perfect at home on the season.

While the Bearcats may still be thinking about the Xavier loss, this is a very important game for the Blazers. UAB admittedly lost a number of key players from last year's team. However, the cupboard is far from bare. Elijah Millsap (Paul's brother) has been excellent. He's averaging 15.8 points and 9.3 rebounds. Senior F Howard Crawford, the team's top returning scorer from last year, is averaging a healthy 14.2 points and 3.9 boards. Meanwhile Jamarr Sanders is contributing 11.3 points and four rebounds per game, while averaging 2.7 assists. Speaking of assists, Aaron Johnson is leading the team with 4.2 assists per game, to go along with his 9.4 points. The junior produced 123 assists with just 63 turnovers last season. He's one of the Blazers' all-time assist leaders and UAB entered this season with a 26-7 record when he'd managed at least four assists.

That's not all though. The NCAA ruled that transfers George Drake and Kenneth Cooper, both of who already graduated from their previous schools, were eligible to play for the Blazers this season. The pair or seniors are combining to average 14.5 points and 8.2 rebounds. Prior to the season, Coach Davis had this to say of the NCAA ruling: "This is great news. You are talking about two fifth-year seniors with over 170 college games played between them. They will give us leadership, depth and maturity. We are very excited to have them cleared to play with us..."

UAB lost by seven at Cincinnati last season. They crushed the Bearcats (73-54) when the teams met here the previous season though. They also won 80-69 the previous time (2004) that they hosted the Bearcats.

The Bearcats are 0-3 ATS their last three games and 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as favorites. They're just 2-8-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were favored by two points or less. They're 2-5 ATS their last seven against CUSA teams and 3-9-1 ATS the last 13 times that they played a road game with a total in the 120s.

While the Blazers haven't played the type of schedule that Cincinnati has, this is their chance to show that they're capable of playing with and beating a good team from a top tier conference. They've had the game circled and I expect them to rise to the challenge, scoring the minor upset. *10 Best Bet