Ferringo NCAABB 12/16
3.5-Unit Play. Take #539 Oregon State (-2) over Illinois-Chicago (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 16)
Illinois-Chicago has played a tough schedule. And they have been OK against that competition, losing by an average of about 14 points against the four Top 140 teams that they have played. But this line is still a joke. I know Oregon State hasn’t been great so far this year but they are starting to pick it up. They have covered three straight and four of five despite odd losses to Texas-Corpus Christi and Sacramento State. Oregon State has played a pair of tricky road games at Texas Tech (lost by four) and Nebraska (lost by six) already and playing at UI-C isn’t going to intimidate them. Illinois-Chicago is a three-point bombing team. Oregon State plays great perimeter defense so I think that they should suffocate the Flames attack. Don’t understand this line. I know about 95 percent of the action is coming in on Oregon State, but in this one I’ll defer to the wisdom of crowds.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #544 Rice (-6.5) over Santa Clara (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 16)
This Rice team has had kind of a tough go of it. But I think they are finally over the loss of their leading scorer at the start of the season. I think they have some value here. They play great at home and after three straight losses they have to have a little bit of urgency tonight. Their last three games were all losses to quality teams – Texas, Harvard and North Texas. Now they get a crack at a shaky Santa Clara team that beat Cal-Bakersfield and Houston Baptist by three.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #538 Ohio (-2) over Illinois State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 16)
This line actually opened with Illinois State as the favorite. Mistake. Ohio just wins at home. It’s what they do. And they already have dropped one game on their own court this year. I don’t think that it will happen again today. The Bobcats have six scorers in double digits. And I’d like to think that it’s a coincidence that Ohio has lost three of four games since Armon Bassett has been eligible. He it for 27 points in his last game and I think that this will be a situation where it all comes together for the Bobcats. ISU is kind of a one-man gang with Osiris Eldridge leading the way. They are coming off a loss to Niagara at home and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games (despite going 4-1 SU). Tells me that this team is overrated.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #533 Richmond (+5) over South Carolina (7 p.m.)
Spiders are heading to South Carolina to take on a Cocks team that is still without two of its three best players (Mike Holmes, Dominique Archie). Richmond folded late against VCU over the weekend, blowing a 12-point lead and managing to score just four points in the last seven minutes. But I still think that this is a top-quality Spiders squad and I’ll be riding them through their tough nonconference slate. USC hasn’t played in 10 days. That’s a significant layoff and I think that they may have some rust. Richmond has been exceptional at stopping teams from getting fast break points. If they can slow down the Cocks tonight I wonder if USC will have enough in the halfcourt to get this win.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #551 Oklahoma State (+2.5) over Stanford (11 p.m.)
This play is akin to our play on Virginia Tech over Penn State over the weekend. Bottom line here is that the Big 12 is just that much better than the Pac-10. And this falls under my guideline of relative conference strength. Let’s say that Oklahoma State is No. 6 in the Big 12 and Stanford is No. 8 in the Pac-10. I don’t care where they play. That means that Oklahoma State is significantly better. The Cardinal have one guy, Josh Owens, that can make things happen. But he isn’t a polished player and he is not nearly as good as James Anderson. OSU has more guys that can put the ball in the hole. They are weak underneath but Stanford definitely doesn’t have anyone down low to exploit it. Ignore the line movement here. I’m backing talent over home court.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #555 Samford (+14.5) over Alabama (8 p.m.)
I’m going to take a flier on the Bulldogs today and I think that this may be their best role. Because of the deliberate tempo that the Bulldogs play this 14-point line is kind of the equivalent of a 22-point spread with a normal small, mid-major team. This is a letdown spot for the Crimson Tide after a big game loss at home against Purdue on Saturday. And it’s a slight look ahead situation to a more marquee game against Kansas State this weekend. And in between those two games they have to face a veteran Samford squad that runs a Princeton offense, that will slow the tempo of this one down to a crawl, and will test Alabama’s discipline and their mediocre perimeter defense. I think the points will be good.
1-Unit Play. Take #535 Cincinnati (-1) over UAB (7 p.m.)
It is 1,000 percent normal to expect a letdown here. Cincinnati got screwed on Sunday against their rivals, Xavier, in a four-point loss. (Of course, the Bearcats blew several chances to seal the deal in that game, but I digress.) Now they have to go on the road, again, to face a former CUSA rival that has had this game circled as one of its marquee nonconference games. I get all that. But I am still going with the team I think is better. UAB’s schedule has been soft. Very soft. They have faced four teams ranked 170 or higher. They are 1-2 ATS in those games. Cincinnati is by far the best team that a pretty inexperienced UAB team has faced this season. The Bearcats beat a significantly more talented Blazers team last year and now I think that Cincy has gotten better while UAB has gotten worse. I hate the line movement in this game and I don’t like the timing. But the matchup is strongly in our favor and the line value is great considering the talent disparity.
1-Unit Play. Take #532 UNC-Wilmington (+7.5) over Wake Forest (7 p.m.)
Last year Wake laid a 32-point beating on the Seahawks as a 24-point favorite while scoring 120 points. Wow. The problem: 56 of Wake’s 120 points came from two guys that aren’t playing for them anymore. UNC has just bout everyone back that scored in that game and now they get their revenge shot at home. Wilmington’s last four losses have come by an average of about six points per game and that was against some comparably rated teams (Miami, South Florida). Over 80 percent of the action is coming in on Wake, which is coming off a 40-point win over a terrible Elon team and could possibly be looking forward to their ACC opener this weekend against N.C. State. Wake has already lost at home to one CAA team (William & Mary) and I think that they will be in for a game tonight.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #559 Louisiana-Monroe (+11.5) over Northern Colorado (9 p.m.)
These are 5-point teasers:
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #533 Richmond (+10) over South Carolina (7 p.m.) AND Take #551 Oklahoma State (+7.5) over Stanford (11 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #532 UNC-Wilmington (+12.5) over Wake Forest (7 p.m.) AND Take #555 Samford (+19.5) over Alabama (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #542 Mississippi (-1.5) over UTEP (8 p.m.) AND Take Mississippi State (-5.5) over Wright State (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #551 Oklahoma State (+7.5) over Stanford (11 p.m.) AND Take #559 Louisiana-Monroe (+16.5) over Northern Colorado (9 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Mississippi State (-5) over Wright State (7 p.m.) AND Take #539 Oregon State (+1) over Illinois-Chicago (8 p.m.)
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Originally Posted by Cannon
