Doc's NBA 12/15
4-Unit Play #704 Take Charlotte -4 ½ Over New York (7 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
The Knicks have been playing better lately and that is why we are getting a very nice small line here but the truth of the matter is that this is the Knicks and they are not a very good team. This team has been overachieving a bit while the Bobcats have been underachieving but Charlotte is a better team, make no mistake. They have really struggled on the road but they are more than solid at home with an 8-3 home record. The Cats have beaten the likes of Denver and Cleveland handily in recent home games and we think that they will take care of business in this game – we expected the line here to be 7 or higher. Both teams are well rested but that should help the home team more and this defense can slow down the Knicks as they allow less than 90 PPG at home this season. Also, Charlotte has won three straight meetings and covered four of the last five. They have also covered six of the last eight in Charlotte.
3-Unit Play #705 Take Toronto +7 Over Miami (7:30 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
Miami just hasn’t been playing well. And on top of that, they have been a bettor’s worst nightmare and the oddsmakers keep setting lines that would indicate the Heat are playing well. Miami is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games and 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games. Their defense has been pretty much non-existent and they have allowed 100 or more points in six straight games. Toronto has been playing better and has won four of their last six. They have also dominated this series, winning seven of the last eight meetings and covering in 12 of the last 15 meetings. We think Toronto keeps this real close with a chance for the straight up win.
4-Unit Play #705 Take Toronto/Miami OVER 207 (7:30 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
*Note this was going to be our Game of the Week but there was some major line movement against us right at the posting time so we have lowered this to a 4-Unit pick with the new line of 207.
These teams played last month and the total reached 133. And that was at a time when Miami was playing much better defense. When you have an over bet and the teams score 60+ in a quarter you know you are golden. That happened TWICE in the last meeting as 68 was scored in the second and 61 was scored in the fourth. Miami shot a couple points under their season average from the field in that game and they still scored 113. Just think what they could put up if they hit some more of those shots? We figure this one will have a fast pace just like the first game. Miami has given up 110 PPG in their last five contests and Toronto gives up 112 per game on the road. The over has cashed in four straight meetings.
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Originally Posted by yisman
