Game: Murray St. at Louisiana Tech Dec 15 2009 8:00PM
Prediction: Louisiana Tech
Reason: I'm playing on LA TECH. I successfully played against the Bulldogs in their most recent lined game. They were blown out at Arizona. However, that was on the road against a strong team which had something to prove. The Bulldogs did bounce back with a double OT victory over the Centenary Gentlemen last time out. (Note that was also on the road.) In my opinion, the fact that they struggled with the Gentlemen (was a natural letdown spot) and that they were beaten soundly by the Wildcats has provided us with some excellent value here. Even though I played against the Bulldogs at Arizona, I believe that they're a very good team, one capable of beating most teams, when playing on their home floor. They've already beaten a relatively solid Miami Ohio team here, in addition to beating TCU on the road. While they've played a lot of road games, note that they're perfect here on the season. Also, note that they've got three senior starters and a sixth man, who is also a senior. Coach Kerry Rupp knows that "the time is now" for his program. He was quoted as saying: "With this being our third year, with the discipline we've put in place, the foundation we've laid, with the experienced players and the new players we've brought in there is a sense of urgency with this program..." Even with the loss at Arizona, the Bulldogs are still a very profitable 12-4 ATS their last 16 lined games. Like the Bulldogs, the Racers also have a great record to start the season. With the exception of a loss vs. Cal, they haven't played any good teams all year though - many of their games have been of the 'unlined' variety and they've been favorites in all the rest, with the exception of the game vs. the Bears. While they did cover vs. Cal, the Racers are still an awful 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. They're also 6-14-1 ATS the last 21 times that they played a game with a total in the 140s and a money-burning 38-67 ATS their last 100+ lined games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they were favored, incl. 3-1 ATS as a home fav. (or pick'em) of three points or less. I expect them to improve to 9-1 ATS their last 10 lined games, after having allowed 80 or more in their previous game. *9 Personal Fav
Game: New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats Dec 15 2009 7:05PM
Prediction: under
Reason: I'm playing on NY and Charlotte to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game each other back in late October. The Bobcats won by a score of 102-100. While that game finished above the posted total of 195, a closer look reveals that it was actually a very tough beat for 'under' bettors. That's because that game went to double-overtime and still was below the total, even after the first overtime period. In fact, the teams had only combined for 164 points in regulation and just 176 after the first overtime. Even with 26 points in the second OT, it didn't go 'over' by too much. Assuming we can avoid OT, I'm expecting a much lower final combined score this evening. Despite a few higher-scoring games recently, the Bobcats are still allowing the second fewest points per game in the league. The 89.8 that they allow here at Charlotte is the very best. The 44.1% that they allow opponents to shoot, ranks second best in the East, fourth best overall. On offense, the Bobcats manage a mere 90.3 per game. With a total in the high 190s, note that the Bobcats have seen the UNDER go 24-14-1 the last 39 times that they played a home game with a total in the 195 to 199.5 range, incl. 9-5 their last 14 in that situation. Its also worth noting that they've seen the UNDER go 13-8-1 the last 22 times that they played a game, following three or more consecutive 'overs.' While its true that the Knicks aren't one of the better defensive teams in the league, they do tend to play low-scoring games against teams that don't score very many points. They've seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they faced a team which scores 91 points or less per game. I expect more of the same here with the UNDER improving to 4-1 the last five times that the Knicks were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. *8 Blue Chip
Ben Burns 12/15
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